Property prices will have stabilised by this time next year. Yes or NO?

StiflersMom

StevieJ wrote: »

Bottom out by April, down 20%, stable for a while and then gently rising.
Hotspot around the ending of stamp duty concession ( mortgage rates should be much lower then as well).

This has to be the post of 2008 ! Fantastic stuff.

The HPC whingers have gone vrey quiet all of a sudden

:T:T:T

Where are the lovely SquatNow and !!!!!!? when you need them??

:rotfl::rotfl:

Cleaver

StiflersMom wrote: »

This has to be the post of 2008 ! Fantastic stuff.

The HPC whingers have gone vrey quiet all of a sudden

:T:T:T

Where are the lovely SquatNow and !!!!!!? when you need them??

:rotfl::rotfl:

Here's something to learn from this thread. That even in the face of something seemingly logical and straightforward, the unexpected can happen. Life can throw you a curve ball. The reason around 95% of people on this poll thought house prices would decrease over the 12 months (I was one of them) was because of the awful state of the world economy and everything that goes with that. People like Dan and Stevie seemed to have got it spot on, either through luck or good judgement so well done them. Everyone else was simply making a judgement call on the information available to them.

From your point of view it looks as though house prices are on the rise again. Everything fine and dandy. The media seem to think so, the public seem to think so and the general consensus is that we've seen the bottom. The general consensus this time last year proved to be wrong, maybe it will this time too? People are making judgement calls at the moment that things are on the up, so maybe the corresponding opposite will happen like it seems to have done from this time last year?

I hate all this 'you were wrong, I was right, I'm a bull, you're a bear' boll*cks. As I've said before, I'm completely clueless and have no idea what's going on. What animal can I be? I might term myself as a meerkat. Pleasant, friendly, a bit daft and just a touch stupid. I'm very meerkatish about the housing market.

chucky

Heyman wrote: »

I wonder if !!!!!!? will make an appearance on the anniversary. I'm sure someone can fill in for him if not though :rolleyes:

i thought that he already did on Post 166 :rolleyes:

HammerSmashedFace

I have to say, I probably voted 'continue to decline', seems I was wrong, however......... back in the real world, with PB back up and running I'm glad to see that my prediction was correct.:D

Dan:_4

Cleaver wrote: »

Here's something to learn from this thread. That even in the face of something seemingly logical and straightforward, the unexpected can happen. Life can throw you a curve ball. The reason around 95% of people on this poll thought house prices would decrease over the 12 months (I was one of them) was because of the awful state of the world economy and everything that goes with that. People like Dan and Stevie seemed to have got it spot on, either through luck or good judgement so well done them. Everyone else was simply making a judgement call on the information available to them.

From your point of view it looks as though house prices are on the rise again. Everything fine and dandy. The media seem to think so, the public seem to think so and the general consensus is that we've seen the bottom. The general consensus this time last year proved to be wrong, maybe it will this time too? People are making judgement calls at the moment that things are on the up, so maybe the corresponding opposite will happen like it seems to have done from this time last year?

I hate all this 'you were wrong, I was right, I'm a bull, you're a bear' boll*cks. As I've said before, I'm completely clueless and have no idea what's going on. What animal can I be? I might term myself as a meerkat. Pleasant, friendly, a bit daft and just a touch stupid. I'm very meerkatish about the housing market.

Good point.

But I have a feeling the general consensus for the board members is unlikley to move. i.e if the poll was rerun from today 95% will still vote DOWN

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

FWIW (I know - not much) HPCers misjudged the following :-

• Housing supply - People stopped moving, builders stopped building. Posters on HPC seemed to overestimate the amount of vacant property in the UK pre recession.
• Historically low interest rates - making houses very affordable and stemming the amount of repos
• Unemployment didn't rise at the levels some expected
• Inflation - Some expected inflation and we got deflation.

Looking at the next year. Do you expect the supply of houses to increase? Do you think interest rates will rise? Inflation? Unemployment?

Imho there will continue to be a shortage of houses and interest rates will remain low throughout 2010. Inflation - not sure probably it will stay low but there is always the oil question. Unemploment will probably start to rise dramatically in 2nd qtr 2010.

brit1234

BACKFRMTHEEDGE wrote: »

FWIW (I know - not much) HPCers misjudged the following :-

• Housing supply - People stopped moving, builders stopped building. Posters on HPC seemed to overestimate the amount of vacant property in the UK pre recession.
• Historically low interest rates - making houses very affordable and stemming the amount of repos
• Unemployment didn't rise at the levels some expected
• Inflation - Some expected inflation and we got deflation.

Looking at the next year. Do you expect the supply of houses to increase? Do you think interest rates will rise? Inflation? Unemployment?

Imho there will continue to be a shortage of houses and interest rates will remain low throughout 2010. Inflation - not sure probably it will stay low but there is always the oil question. Unemploment will probably start to rise dramatically in 2nd qtr 2010.

Unemployment is still massively rissing. Low interest rates don't stop the crash from happening they just delay. Rember the dot com bubbl and 911 crash were delayed by low interest rates till this one. Then they lower the rates to the bottom, rates can't lower any longer. This huge debt is just mounting up, it won't be inflatted away till the banks start realisng the money from the quantative easing, but they won't do that for ages as they have to fix their huge loses.

House prices will continue to fall, we are just waiting for the next trigger which will be most likely the US ALT A mortgages deals which are comming to an end 2009 into 2010.

House prices are massively inflated by cheap credit, once it is gone they will crash again

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

brit1234 wrote: »

Unemployment is still massively rissing.

False.

Unemployment actually fell slightly in the last monthly statistic. Although it rose by 88K in the last quarter, we don't yet know what it is doing right now. The last monthly release showed a fall though.

However versus the rises in unemployment of 100k a month last winter, an average rise of only 29K a month is a big, big improvement. And again, it actually fell by a thousand in the last month for which statistics are available.

Low interest rates don't stop the crash from happening they just delay. Rember the dot com bubbl and 911 crash were delayed by low interest rates till this one.

False.

Those stock market crashes happened. They weren't delayed. The fallout on the wider economy was eased by lower interest rates though.

Then they lower the rates to the bottom, rates can't lower any longer.

False.

It is entirely possible to have negative interest rates. Or more QE, which in terms of performing the function interest rates do, ie, increasing liquidity in the economy, is the same as lowering rates further.

This huge debt is just mounting up, it won't be inflatted away till the banks start realisng the money from the quantative easing, but they won't do that for ages as they have to fix their huge loses. House prices will continue to fall, we are just waiting for the next trigger which will be most likely the US ALT A mortgages deals which are comming to an end 2009 into 2010.

Ahhhh, that old chestnut.

Well, the next trigger was supposed to be rising unemployment, the end of spring, rising base rates, the end of summer, a gilt strike, the school holidays, US bond vigilantes, failing American banks, etc..... And now it's back to Alt-A resets, a subject that has been scare storied to death over on hpc for the last few years, yet which miraculously has failed to materialised as the next trigger.

House prices are massively inflated by cheap credit, once it is gone they will crash again

Interesting.

Perhaps you failed to notice a little thing we call "the credit crunch"....

Where two thirds of mortgage lending was withdrawn from the UK housing market, and unsurprisingly, house prices crashed.

Also unsurprisingly, prices started rising again once lending started recovering.

Please Brit, take your medication.

You're just embarrasing yourself now.;)

smartn

Cleaver wrote: »

Here's something to learn from this thread. That even in the face of something seemingly logical and straightforward, the unexpected can happen. Life can throw you a curve ball. The reason around 95% of people on this poll thought house prices would decrease over the 12 months (I was one of them) was because of the awful state of the world economy and everything that goes with that. People like Dan and Stevie seemed to have got it spot on, either through luck or good judgement so well done them. Everyone else was simply making a judgement call on the information available to them.

From your point of view it looks as though house prices are on the rise again. Everything fine and dandy. The media seem to think so, the public seem to think so and the general consensus is that we've seen the bottom. The general consensus this time last year proved to be wrong, maybe it will this time too? People are making judgement calls at the moment that things are on the up, so maybe the corresponding opposite will happen like it seems to have done from this time last year?

I hate all this 'you were wrong, I was right, I'm a bull, you're a bear' boll*cks. As I've said before, I'm completely clueless and have no idea what's going on. What animal can I be? I might term myself as a meerkat. Pleasant, friendly, a bit daft and just a touch stupid. I'm very meerkatish about the housing market.

Anyone who admits to be clueless gets my thanks, I'm clueless about all this as well. I really dont understand how people can hold such strong beliefs be it bearish or bullish, if it was that easy this time next year I'd be a millionaire Rodney. I have a hunch this is all far from over, but hey, I may be wrong!

brit1234

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

False.

Unemployment actually fell slightly in the last monthly statistic. Although it rose by 88K in the last quarter, we don't yet know what it is doing right now. The last monthly release showed a fall though.

However versus the rises in unemployment of 100k a month last winter, an average rise of only 29K a month is a big, big improvement. And again, it actually fell by a thousand in the last month for which statistics are available.




False.

Those stock market crashes happened. They weren't delayed. The fallout on the wider economy was eased by lower interest rates though.

False.

It is entirely possible to have negative interest rates. Or more QE, which in terms of performing the function interest rates do, ie, increasing liquidity in the economy, is the same as lowering rates further.

Ahhhh, that old chestnut.

Well, the next trigger was supposed to be rising unemployment, the end of spring, rising base rates, the end of summer, a gilt strike, the school holidays, US bond vigilantes, failing American banks, etc..... And now it's back to Alt-A resets, a subject that has been scare storied to death over on hpc for the last few years, yet which miraculously has failed to materialised as the next trigger.

Interesting.

Perhaps you failed to notice a little thing we call "the credit crunch"....

Where two thirds of mortgage lending was withdrawn from the UK housing market, and unsurprisingly, house prices crashed.

Also unsurprisingly, prices started rising again once lending started recovering.

Please Brit, take your medication.

You're just embarrasing yourself now.;)

Hamish full of hopeless denial of reality.

Prices will fall because there is simply not the money to support them or now the fraud.

No matter how much you smile it will not alter the economic fundamentals. Go buy yourself a Daily express to keep you happy and stay away from those nasty broadsheets.:rotfl: