Property prices will have stabilised by this time next year. Yes or NO?

fimonkey

Realy wrote: »

mmm I wonder.:rolleyes:

It's like asking if crisps are nice on a Weight Watchers forum.:rotfl:

Hmm completely see your point, is there an alternative place I can post this where there are still plenty of 'bulls'? Once upon a time this board had its fair share of bulls and bears, but not so sure its representative any more.

Fascinating replies so far, please keep em coming.

My own personal interest in this is as a potential FTB, I keep seeing the odd bargain and have to physically sit on my hands to stop me phoning for a viewing... to put an end to this I've locked my deposit away in a one year bond with a 6.98% interest rate, seeing as I expect interest rates to fal too.

However I'm now concerned that the fall in interest rates will promote a glut of ppl wanting to take on mortgages again, plus less forced sellers = rise in house prices and I'll miss the boat. There is also a pent up supply and demand issue in the UK, so I expect once one person begins to buy, the rest of the sheeple will follow too. The only thing I can see holding this back at the moment is the lack of credit.... So for my own selfish sake, i hope this lack of credit supply lasts longer than 12 months.

confused31_2

adr0ck wrote: »

houses are still selling (just no where near as many)

They might be selling but its not many, like i said if you are a first time buyer you would be a mug to buy a house now.

You imagine if you bought a house today, for say 200,000 pound which was reduced from 250,000, you might think its a bargain, but in 12 months time properties the same are going for 125,000 your going to be well upset.

I think the only people who will benefit now are people who have got the money in the bank who can go to auctions and pick up houses a third of what they was 2 years ago.but how many people have got that kind of money??

Its always the same money turns to money, i can imagine a lot of people rubbing their hands together listening to all the reports of houses not selling at auction.


confused

StevieJ

fimonkey wrote: »

Hmm completely see your point, is there an alternative place I can post this where there are still plenty of 'bulls'? Once upon a time this board had its fair share of bulls and bears, but not so sure its representative any more.

Fascinating replies so far, please keep em coming.

My own personal interest in this is as a potential FTB, I keep seeing the odd bargain and have to physically sit on my hands to stop me phoning for a viewing... to put an end to this I've locked my deposit away in a one year bond with a 6.98% interest rate, seeing as I expect interest rates to fal too.

However I'm now concerned that the fall in interest rates will promote a glut of ppl wanting to take on mortgages again, plus less forced sellers = rise in house prices and I'll miss the boat. There is also a pent up supply and demand issue in the UK, so I expect once one person begins to buy, the rest of the sheeple will follow too. The only thing I can see holding this back at the moment is the lack of credit.... So for my own selfish sake, i hope this lack of credit supply lasts longer than 12 months.

Very true.

lostinrates

fimonkey wrote: »

Hmm completely see your point, is there an alternative place I can post this where there are still plenty of 'bulls'? Once upon a time this board had its fair share of bulls and bears, but not so sure its representative any more.

Fascinating replies so far, please keep em coming.

My own personal interest in this is as a potential FTB, I keep seeing the odd bargain and have to physically sit on my hands to stop me phoning for a viewing... to put an end to this I've locked my deposit away in a one year bond with a 6.98% interest rate, seeing as I expect interest rates to fal too.

However I'm now concerned that the fall in interest rates will promote a glut of ppl wanting to take on mortgages again, plus less forced sellers = rise in house prices and I'll miss the boat. There is also a pent up supply and demand issue in the UK, so I expect once one person begins to buy, the rest of the sheeple will follow too. The only thing I can see holding this back at the moment is the lack of credit.... So for my own selfish sake, i hope this lack of credit supply lasts longer than 12 months.

I have a selfish FTB want for it to stabalise more quickly, although no predictions from me ...I've given up, too confused.

I'd like things to stablilise, so we can buy and settle down while not losing significant amounts of money. I don't care about a return to massive HPI, I'm not thinking of it as a way to make money, but neither do I want to lose money particularly.

fimonkey

I need to see a drop of at least another 15% to be able to afford what I truly want (not asking much, a two bed freehold cos I'm in my 30's and want to start a family soon, that's all). If prices stabilise sooner than that I'll need to make comprimises to be able to buy.

ad9898_3

Even without the recession factor and the banking system capitulation, there is absolutely no chance of stablisation by this time next year and that is not just wishful hoping on my part.

History says prices will continue to fall into mid 2010, followed by a period of stagnation of anything upto 4 years, however with the recession, banking crisis and huge personal debt mountain, these are conservative estimates.

Who said that prices will stablise and begin a steady rise next year ?, there is absolutely no evidence, past or present that suggests this could happen. There is no money !!, some people will always have a few quid in the bank and this may skew their perception but BTL in the form we have seen in the past few years is dead (i.e the pyramid model) and FTB'rs are either holding back or do not have the money to muster huge deposits.

adr0ck

confused31 wrote: »

They might be selling but its not many,

thank you for correcting your self confused

lostinrates

fimonkey wrote: »

I need to see a drop of at least another 15% to be able to afford what I truly want (not asking much, a two bed freehold cos I'm in my 30's and want to start a family soon, that's all). If prices stabilise sooner than that I'll need to make comprimises to be able to buy.

We can buy a comprimise that seems fair now. If I were to wait for what I truly want hell would freeze over I think.....a nice country estate complete with rambling pile would do nicely. Afford though, is relative, I mean we can afford by gtting into scary amounts of debt that mortgage not only our income but our souls too, not we could buy outright or on a 3.5 multiple a 'satisfactory' our comprimise between dream and reality.:o

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Even without the recession factor and the banking system capitulation, there is absolutely no chance of stablisation by this time next year and that is not just wishful hoping on my part.

History says prices will continue to fall into mid 2010, followed by a period of stagnation of anything upto 4 years, however with the recession, banking crisis and huge personal debt mountain, these are conservative estimates.

Who said that prices will stablise and begin a steady rise next year ?, there is absolutely no evidence, past or present that suggests this could happen. There is no money !!, some people will always have a few quid in the bank and this may skew their perception but BTL in the form we have seen in the past few years is dead (i.e the pyramid model) and FTB'rs are either holding back or do not have the money to muster huge deposits.

This market was stopped dead by the credit crunch ( before prices had found a higher level), it will be stabilised by the dissipation of the credit crunch. Remind me when were house price increases last stopped in their tracks by such a dramatic withdrawal of credit? We can then discuss the historical perspective.

Kez100

We have to get buyers and sellers together. Buyers are sat hoping for about 40-50% off peak and sellers about 5%! If we wait for repossessions to sort this gap it will take years.

I reckon (and I am usually wrong on everything - ask the kids) we will see continued big drop through 2009 going into 2010 at 30% down. We will see a spring bounce in 2010 (as the more wealthy FTBs jump on the bandwagon). As we enter the latter end of 2010 it will drop again! Finally settling at 30-40% off peak for a few years before taking off again.......

Actually, I think that is what happened last time, so no imagination on my behalf at all!