FTSE at 3700 and no winners.

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

3200 is the 2003 low so really that isnt so unlikely. I think 3000 is feasible, it really depends how much longer this bank slow motion suicide continues.

The new bank shares in our market are due to hit around the end of the year afaik and the votes are taking place next month.
The rate of decline has started to slow already, you could assume that is the first part of a U turn

That is fine if you don't take into account GDP and RPI increases over 5 years, the equivalent of 3200 in 2003 is over probably over 4000 adjusted in 2008. We are all guessing but I think the natural bottom in this market was around 5300, then they allowed Lehmans to go under BIG MISTAKE and they know it. I personally think we have now seen the bottom providing the LIBOR differentials continue shrinking albeit slowly.

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

That is fine if you don't take into account GDP and RPI increases over 5 years, the equivalent of 3200 in 2003 is over probably over 4000 adjusted in 2008. We are all guessing but I think the natural bottom in this market was around 5300, then they allowed Lehmans to go under BIG MISTAKE and they know it. I personally think we have now seen the bottom providing the LIBOR differentials continue shrinking albeit slowly.

Brave man - you've called the bottom. Now let's see how it pans out.

StevieJ

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Sure - but I can't see any sort of spectacular or rapid rise in the same way that the collapse so far has been rapid. You could buy into the FTSE 100 today (or tomorrow, now) and still get very good value compared to even one month ago....

One month view:



So not too much danger of missing the boat by too much. On a personal level I'm not too worried about catching the absolute bottom of any market that I was getting in to - I'd prefer to know that the market is in a bull phase for sure even if it meant getting a couple of % less.

Here's the one year view for more perspective:

You have said thet the market will not turn and head up as rapidly as it fell.
VERY BRAVE.

Dithering_Dad

We've only just gotten through the bank crisis, we've now got the recession ahead of us. Plenty of bad news financially to come in between now and Christmas. Hedge funds folding, large businesses giving poor quarterly results, smaller businesses going under, people losing jobs/homes. This is just a small upward spike in the downward trend.

We'll be back below 4000 by this time Friday, if not before.

I'm calling the bottom to occur mid January when Manchester United once again are top of the Premiership and the stock market traders can see that everything is back as it should be in the world. Expect the rise to start immediately after that realism sinks in.

StevieJ

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

We've only just gotten through the bank crisis, we've now got the recession ahead of us. Plenty of bad news financially to come in between now and Christmas. Hedge funds folding, large businesses giving poor quarterly results, smaller businesses going under, people losing jobs/homes. This is just a small upward spike in the downward trend.

We'll be back below 4000 by this time Friday, if not before.

I'm calling the bottom to occur mid January when Manchester United once again are top of the Premiership and the stock market traders can see that everything is back as it should be in the world.

Maybe below 4000 on Friday, maybe not, but based on the 1990 -1991 recession the market bottomed out at the very start of the recession. I did say if Libor rates come down gradually, this could be a ongoing support to the market/economy just as it was negative drag as it went up.
Just out of interest, if you are anticipating the things above don't you think the market is also?

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

You have said thet the market will not turn and head up as rapidly as it fell.
VERY BRAVE.

So we'll be back at 5000 within a month then?

StevieJ

!!!!!!? wrote: »

So we'll be back at 5000 within a month then?

Don't remember writing that.
Well not on this thread anyway, maybe here, with provisos.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1240665&page=3

Dithering_Dad

StevieJ wrote: »

Maybe below 4000 on Friday, maybe not, but based on the 1990 -1991 recession the market bottomed out at the very start of the recession. I did say if Libor rates come down gradually, this could be a ongoing support to the market/economy just as it was negative drag as it went up.
Just out of interest, if you are anticipating the things above don't you think the market is also?

This is a very different crisis than the 1990 recession, we certainly didn't have banks going bust and being nationalised, investment houses that survived the Great Depression going bust and being bailed out by governments, a House Crash on the scale we're seeing now, the record levels of personal and company debt, etc. etc. in the 1990s.

Who really knows what will happen in these market conditions?

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

Don't remember writing that.
Well not on this thread anyway, maybe here, with provisos.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1240665&page=3

You've called the bottom of the market and implied that you think prices will rise as rapidly as they fell. If that were to be the case then we should be seeing 5000 on the FTSE within a month or so.


Personally, I have no real idea nor interest in investing in stocks at this time but I do get the feeling that we are going to see a pretty stagnant market for quite some time. Unless of course the government decides to inflate the tens/hundreds of billions they are going to be borrowing, away..... With the recent slump in sterling and the word that UK bonds are going to be hard to shift I get the feeling that the markets might be thinking that's what they are going to do.

If interest rates do go to something silly like 2% or even lower, I cant see many people with large amounts of savings leaving their money in bank accounts so the stock market is likely to benefit from that all by itself. Personally, at the very least I'd be thinking of cashing out my sterling savings and putting them in a deposit box rather than leaving them in a dodgy banking system that pays me next to no interest.... but that's another thread.

sabretoothtigger

Keep thinking U bend I reckon, sharp fall, long bottoming out, eventually sharp rise?