FTSE at 3700 and no winners.

Generali

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

I can't understand why the market is going up, the news is full of depressing business news such as RBS posting its first ever loss, M&S profits dropping by 25%, house reposessions up, blah, blah.

Are the people who are buying stock right now in denial or do they know something I don't?

I'm still sitting in my cash fund, but I'm starting to feel a bit like Miss Haversham here - waiting for a crash that'll never come. :rotfl:

Stock prices react to whay people in the market believe is going to happen as much as to what is actually happening.

Also, falling interest rates make stocks that pay dividends more attractive to investors so you would expect to see a stock that is paying a decent dividend rise if the market believes that interest rates will fall.

purch

Are the people who are buying stock right now in denial or do they know something I don't?

Sell the rumour..........buy the fact for bad news, or Buy the rumour......sell the fact for good news, is the way the "market" tends to see things in the shorterm.

Cannon_Fodder

I think you did well to take the summer crash out of the equation.

Maybe trying to pick the very bottom is a bit ambitious.

From 4500 back up to 6000 is a nice 30% profit...in due course.

StevieJ

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Sure - but I can't see any sort of spectacular or rapid rise in the same way that the collapse so far has been rapid. You could buy into the FTSE 100 today (or tomorrow, now) and still get very good value compared to even one month ago....

One month view:



So not too much danger of missing the boat by too much. On a personal level I'm not too worried about catching the absolute bottom of any market that I was getting in to - I'd prefer to know that the market is in a bull phase for sure even if it meant getting a couple of % less.

Here's the one year view for more perspective:

Problem is, if you wait for a bull market you don't just miss a couple of %, more ike 30-40%.

StevieJ

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

I can't understand why the market is going up, the news is full of depressing business news such as RBS posting its first ever loss, M&S profits dropping by 25%, house reposessions up, blah, blah.

Are the people who are buying stock right now in denial or do they know something I don't?

I'm still sitting in my cash fund, but I'm starting to feel a bit like Miss Haversham here - waiting for a crash that'll never come. :rotfl:

I don't think you have actually lost out yet have you? I got the impression that you initially ditched out at around 4200 - 4300 and then made a few thou trading.

Dithering_Dad

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

I think you did well to take the summer crash out of the equation.

Maybe trying to pick the very bottom is a bit ambitious.

From 4500 back up to 6000 is a nice 30% profit...in due course.

If only I got out at 6000. I bailed at 5500 and got back in with equities at 3800 (ish), then bailed again at 4200 (ish).

There must be some profit taking at some point this week, so hopefully there will be a bit of a drop. TBH if the market dropped back to 4100 I'd be tempted to buy back in with my full pension amount and then leave it with the fund managers while I concentrate on blitzing my mortgage. It might be the case that the wild swings and spectacular crashes are over with.

Dithering_Dad

StevieJ wrote: »

I don't think you have actually lost out yet have you? I got the impression that you initially ditched out at around 4200 - 4300 and then made a few thou trading.

I'm not doing that badly, but todays increases will mean that had I stayed in until tonight rather than bailing out at 4200 I would have made about £6k more.

Can't complain really, but I do so wish that I could magically call the tops and bottoms of the market. I suspect I'd be quite wealthy if I could .

Realy

If 3700 was the bottom how long usualy does it take from bottom of FTSE to end of recession? (I know thier is not set rule but what as it done historicaly as I am to lazy to look.:D )

StevieJ

Realy wrote: »

If 3700 was the bottom how long usualy does it take from bottom of FTSE to end of recession? (I know thier is not set rule but what as it done historicaly as I am to lazy to look.:D )

If we take 1990 as an example it should be around Q3 2009.

Realy

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

I'm not doing that badly, but todays increases will mean that had I stayed in until tonight rather than bailing out at 4200 I would have made about £3k more.

Can't complain really, but I do so wish that I could magically call the tops and bottoms of the market. I suspect I'd be quite wealthy if I could .

No you would be burned alive. Witch.;) Burn her.
But if you float, that means your made of wood, which means you can make a bridge out of you which means you are a witch.