More market mayhem - FTSE back down to 3,777

StevieJ

Lowest EVER confidence rating in US consumer confidence, second highest EVER recorded % increase in US markets.
You couldn't make it up could you?

dunstonh

StevieJ wrote: »

Lowest EVER confidence rating in US consumer confidence, second highest EVER recorded % increase in US markets.
You couldn't make it up could you?

And yet, nothing in the news that mentioned the increase. Massive reporting when it goes down. Barely mentioned when it goes up. Is it any wonder confidence is low.

rjp_2

Try to avoid the allure of hunting for a market bottom. The current market climate is new in many ways, so I think it would be an even more dangerous pursuit than ever before.

One very important aspect of Warren Buffet's advice to buy shares has been ignored. Take a look at the original article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=2&scp=1&sq=warren%20buffett%20op-ed&st=cse&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

He points out that he can't predict the short term movements -- he is thinking on a time scale of a decade or more.

So if you are going to move into equities, I would suggest putting only part sums in, every month or quarter. The market is likely to remain bearish for some time to come. So if the equities are still overpriced, you won't lose so much. And if they are underpriced, and the market rebounds, you still get some of the benefit -- even if you won't make 'a killing'. Of course, there is still risk involved, but it is an investor's risk rather than a speculator's risk.

hyposmurf

dunstonh wrote: »

And yet, nothing in the news that mentioned the increase. Massive reporting when it goes down. Barely mentioned when it goes up. Is it any wonder confidence is low.

True the media love focusing on negativety in the markets, citing recession, credit crunch etc.I'm sure due to this they have a large effect on confidence in the market itself.

Blah99

StevieJ wrote: »

Lowest EVER confidence rating in US consumer confidence, second highest EVER recorded % increase in US markets.
You couldn't make it up could you?

I think it's actually quite understandable. The markets - banking on rate cuts to limit recessionary worries - are totally desynched from consumer confidence at the moment.

I'm not an expert on US markets but I believe there's usually a bounce around a presidential election also.

1echidna

dunstonh wrote: »

And yet, nothing in the news that mentioned the increase. Massive reporting when it goes down. Barely mentioned when it goes up. Is it any wonder confidence is low.

I am afraid that the massive injection of capital into major banks and other liquidity measures is rightly major news as is the effects of credit changing from a flood to a dribble and the effect of this and other events on the devoloping recession. Those who suggested it was a good time to buy shares when the FTSE 100 was over 6500 cannot say that they were wrong only because of press sensationalism.

udydudy

dunstonh wrote: »

Sentiment is right but the timescale is almost certainly too short.

I did not mean this christmas, the nextt one i.e 2009. or maybe earlier. The drop below 4600 is basically an overshoot and the markets will get back above it in a short time and then start the ardous climb back to 5500-5700 over a years time.

baby_boomer

dunstonh wrote: »

And yet, nothing in the news that mentioned the increase. Massive reporting when it goes down. Barely mentioned when it goes up. Is it any wonder confidence is low.

Perhaps it's something to do with the fact that the FTSE is down around 40% over 9 years :eek: in spite of what our IFAs told us a decade ago

FTSE at 3,777

And a growing realisation that this crisis is beyond the ken of most journos, IFAs, CEOs and City slickers

One year chart shows the collapse from 6,500 less than a year ago :eek:

1echidna

What those who keep comparing this crisis with previous crises seem to be failing to appreciate is that the recent ones were inflationary ones in which equities were a better bet than cash deposits. We may now be in a crisis with possible deflationary elements and very much more prolonged. Low point predictions based on analysis of previous recent cyclical behaviour may be total bunkum. We may yet be some distance from reaching the low point in the market.

To say that press sensationalism is responsible is ludicrous - just look at the fact that banks across the world have been bailed out to the extent of one sixth of world GDP.