POLL! Are We near the Bottom?

hermanmunster_3

Hi Master_ian - the poll thingy is at the bottom of the pasge when you start a new thread - I've done a poll now for this question!

Blah99

hermanmunster wrote: »

ithanks to all - nteresting thread but what is RSI?
I can only think of repetitive strain injury

RSI is "Relative Strength Indicator". In crude terms it's a measure of whether a stock/index/whatever is overbought (ie: price has gone too high because too many people have bought it) or oversold (ie: price has gone too low because too many people have sold).

tradetime

master_ian wrote: »

:cool: It's a calculated guess, but would be good to hear of everyone's opinion....

In light of the G7 meetings this weekend (with hopefully an effective plan to restore flow of money between financial institutions), and countries having already injected billions into banks and cutting of Interest rates...

ARE We Nearing the Bottom the Stockmarket? Or has Friday already seen it?

If the fate of the markets is down to the G7 agreeing, then we could be in for more trouble.

As to the bottom, I'd have to join the no vote. Simply put there is too much uncertainty, and markets hate uncertainty and generally sell it.The bottom has been called three times this year by various talking heads, in January 22nd big gap down and reversal, since October the S&P500 had dropped from mid 1500's to to an intraday level around the mid 1200's an overall drop of around 20%, A successful retest of the Jan lows in March again brought forward the bottom callers to claim victory for their earlier call.
In the two months that followed we climbed back to near the the mid 1400's before the sellers returned to take us on a two month ride to new lows at 1200 even on July 15th. July 16th saw a strong reversal day, the bottom had to be in now they said, we were over 20% off the highs. Well we are now about 25% below that level.

Interestingly the bottom calling has died down a lot, and the loud voices are all calling for much farther falls, ordinarily that would tend to signal that the bottom has arrived, (markets tend to prove the majority of the people wrong most of the time), but for the high level of financial uncertainty everywhere which is spreading to every other sectors. My opinion is we are due an aggressive bounce, possibly out of the gate Monday if the G7 miraculously agree on something, or later in the week after another selloff in response to a G7 bunfight. Either way, I'd be a seller of any rallies.But that's all just my opinion

sabretoothtigger

Agreed, the 200 moving day average is down. If you want a simple answer wait until that reverses otherwise its just a small bounce

The sp500 came back hard at the end of trade on friday but due to uk events the ftse is unlikely to follow this and in any case it was still an overall fall.
Some have predicted the market to gap upwards sometime this week, seems pretty unlikely right now though

hermanmunster_3

Thanks - steep learning curve at the mo......
Mutterings elsewhere re the MACD - what does this mean???

the MACD value for Dowjones is -350 in daily and -450 in weekly

sabretoothtigger

They are tools to analyse risk and movement probability. Indicators only you can use them to give yourself an idea how likely you are to lose money, volatity of the market is an all time high so whatever you do now is likely to lose you money tbh


Moving Average Convergence/Divergence.

benood

Look like I'm in the minority but I think that we may have just seen the worst - it's looking to me like governments are now prepared to take the necessary action to get the banking system back operational again - and possibly go as far as to put a floor to the market - as the Asians did in 1998 during the LTCM crisis. By the time Obama is in the White house the quick wins may have been and gone.

Cue further 10% fall in the FTSE tomorrow!:p Mugs game caling the bottom but I'll be pleased if I'm right.

tradetime

hermanmunster wrote: »

Thanks - steep learning curve at the mo......
Mutterings elsewhere re the MACD - what does this mean???

the MACD value for Dowjones is -350 in daily and -450 in weekly

MACD is a momentum oscillator which usually shows the relationship between a couple of moving averages (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) and uses a third as a trigger line to indicate potential trade entries, also used as an indicator to show overbought and oversold conditions.

moanymoany

No.

I've ordered my months supply of food, it will be delivered tomorrow and see me through the big bang which will happen in the next two weeks or so.

Few shops keep much stock and if deliveries were halted for whatever reason it would take a few weeks to get things started again.

We're also keeping the car filled up with petrol and a months supply of money for when the banks have 'no money' days.

There are rumours aplenty that the Stock Exchange will stop trading while the Government sorts out the banks.

If it doesn't happen - brilliant!

In case it does - remember - be prepared!

sabretoothtigger

If you read back on the 1929 fall its depressingly similar to whats happening now. Lots of we will fix things speeches, big purchases of shares above market price to restore confidence.
So far every speech with no action seems to be have been a sign to sell. Actual events like iceland defaulting are what has an influence, Ive not heard of anything positive on a similar scale.

There is actually a guy who is 97 years old and worked in finance during the 29 fall and the funny thing is no one from his company has asked him for any advice or just his general impression of events at the time.