POLL! Are We near the Bottom?

master_ian

:cool: It's a calculated guess, but would be good to hear of everyone's opinion....

In light of the G7 meetings this weekend (with hopefully an effective plan to restore flow of money between financial institutions), and countries having already injected billions into banks and cutting of Interest rates...

ARE We Nearing the Bottom the Stockmarket? Or has Friday already seen it?

juicyjude

Who can tell??? Lets hope things get better soon too much doom and gloom around, and how the media just love it

sabretoothtigger

No we are not near the bottom. The damage to the markets is ongoing till a solution is found, when that solution is found the damage will slow and you may find less international companies and countries go broke.
When that stops happening we will have the debt failures to sort out, causing further instability.

At this point the credit market might recover, ordinary businesses may carry on
When thats done the debt will finally have to be paid off with whats left of the stable profitable economy which might not be so much by then.
In a few years time we might be back to normal but its more likely some other boom will be in the workings by then.

I'd say we're a couple stages off the bottom, maybe next year but its hard to say when the markets always look forward.
Some companies are back to their early 90's value but most are just set back by 5 years which isnt much if this is a big deal

dunstonh

The share price no longer reflects the real value of companies (not that it ever really does but now its just not there at all). So trying to call bottom or recovery points at this time is just guesswork. Logically, the prices should have levelled off around 4500 based on recession. There is no logic at present though and the best thing to do now is ride the wave. Learn from it so when the next one comes in 6 or 7 years time you know what to expect (not the actual when, how and why but the fact that it happens).

chopperharris

begiinning of the bottom , or end of it if g7 agrees on loans to banks rather than nationalisation by friday.

I hope to hear statements by all g7 leaders simultaenoulsy before any markets open next week.

amcluesent

Bottom is 2 years away, after the depression has blown away every bit of leverage and we are back to real assets with sustainable values. I expect prices to overshoot on the way down too.

MrExample

People have been calling bottoms for months. Every time it looks like we're close, another 20% or 40% gets lopped off somewhere. No one knows... certainly not us mere mortals.

Of course, it depends what sector you're looking in. Not everyone is getting battered.

Caudle

If we truly are heading into recession, FTSE100 at around 3900 may look a bit high in 3-6 months time!

If you look at dividend yields, an awful lot of shares still look overvalued for a period of major economic slowdown.

StevieJ

Caudle wrote: »

If we truly are heading into recession, FTSE100 at around 3900 may look a bit high in 3-6 months time!

If you look at dividend yields, an awful lot of shares still look overvalued for a period of major economic slowdown.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

sabretoothtigger

Dividend yield is no guide to future prices. Lloyds have had the same dividend for 5 years but after the ex div date but before the actual payment date they decided to scrap it in favour of other ideas

Hbos could buy themselves from their last reported profits. None of the normal guides can be relied on hence why the market has no idea of its own value except its less then it was

Caudle

The FTSE 100 during the last period of economic slowdown (1990-95) was between 2000 and 2500.

Anyone thinking 3900 will be as low as it gets will be greeted with joy - and a few guffaws - by those (especially institutions) wanting to offload their shares currently.

At times when capital growth is out of the question, people start looking at dividend yields and thinking: what the heck am I actually getting for my investment? The answer, in the absence of capital growth, is very little !