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Drops of only 19% predicted on spreadfair
Comments
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You're avin a larf, go on tell us which expert predicted 70% fall? Just out of interest why do property loans have to be 3.5 times income? and you do not appear to have taken any account of joint salaries/wages. Also what about the professional BTL's who will be queuing up to buy properties well before the price drops you are forecasting. Not to mention interest rates of 3%
It's feasible that some individual properties could fall by upto 70%, city cente flats for example. The chances of the average price falling by 60% from peak in nominal terms seem remote to say the least.US housing: it's not a bubble
Moneyweek, December 20050 -
kennyboy66 wrote: »It's feasible that some individual properties could fall by upto 70%, city cente flats for example. The chances of the average price falling by 60% from peak in nominal terms seem remote to say the least.
I agree about the flats, some of these places are bordering on some seedy areas and marketed as luxury apartments, not to mention the sheer quantity built over the previous few years.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
justpurchased wrote: »http://www.findaproperty.com/displaystory.aspx?edid=00&salerent=0&storyid=22507
You wanted it, will any bears please debate properley?
In your crystal ball gazing, you could have examined employment trends, interest rate movements, credit availability, debt, affordability, inflation, salaries, tax etc. No no no! Don't look at these, they just give the wrong answers.
So where did you find your "green shoots of recovery"? Answer; on a gambling website that predicts a 19% plunge. Why did a massive plunge give you solace? Answer; because it is less plungy than a month ago. But in your blinkered logic, you have ignored the fact that predictions were not the remotest bit plungy until very recently.0 -
You're avin a larf, go on tell us which expert predicted 70% fall?
I'm actually being serious. I predict most property will fall just over 50% however there will be areas or individual properties that will fall more.
If you haven't noticed properties have gone up 200-300% in the last decade. These rises were always completly unsustainable and a product of sacking the gold standard and flooding the world with worthless credit.
Property typically prices only goes up with inflation or if you add value. The majority of the rises were pure speculation fueled by cheap credit. Their credit experiment has collapsed and now financial institutions are collapsing one by one.
Many economists of Austrian Economics discipline have been predicting this for years. If you want further views of the big falls listern to the last housing program on codity watch radio on the link below.
http://www.minesite.com/webcasts/commodity_watch_radio.htmlJust out of interest why do property loans have to be 3.5 times income? and you do not appear to have taken any account of joint salaries/wages.
Really do really think its sustainable that you need joint salaries for even the cheapest property. 3.5 times salary has historically been the sustainable level of lending. Every time it deviates from this there is a housing collapse a few years later.
Remember working people also have to children as well, you can't cancell your lifes to stay in a shoe box.Also what about the professional BTL's who will be queuing up to buy properties well before the price drops you are forecasting.
Would you like to tell me where the majority of landlords are going to get the finace from?- Equity their in properties is falling fast. Its likely to be wiped out already if they have bought in the last years. Halifax figures have already shown prices are 12% below this time last year.
- Gift deposits now have to be declared to the banks under new CML rules. So no more using that as a deposit.
- LTVs are increasing dramitically for portential landlord properties.
- Landlords have to wait 6 months to remorgage, no more next day remortgages.:D:D
Interest rates are at a historical low and in the long run rise back to normal. We won't have cuts to 3% just yetNot to mention interest rates of 3%
especially with the BOE saying inflation is likely to stay high for a long while.
Try harder next time, or try to understand the actual issues.:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.
Save our Savers
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kennyboy66 wrote: »8/1 is a 1 in 9 chance, not 1 in 8.
Sorry, you can tell I'm not used to betting. 8/1 means you bet 1 and if you win you get back 9?? What's the logic behind that? Does that mean you also get your stake back if you win?No reliance should be placed on the above! Absolutely none, do you hear?0 -
Sorry, you can tell I'm not used to betting. 8/1 means you bet 1 and if you win you get back 9?? What's the logic behind that? Does that mean you also get your stake back if you win?
That is exactly right. You put down 1, the bookie puts down 8 making 9 in total. The winner walks away with the 9.0 -
That is exactly right. You put down 1, the bookie puts down 8 making 9 in total. The winner walks away with the 9.
Ok, thanks. Chances of England winning the world cup: hmm, is 11% reasonable? It seems optimistic, seeing as England haven't won since I was a child, but maybe with this win in Croatia things are looking up?No reliance should be placed on the above! Absolutely none, do you hear?0 -
Ok, thanks. Chances of England winning the world cup: hmm, is 11% reasonable? It seems optimistic, seeing as England haven't won since I was a child, but maybe with this win in Croatia things are looking up?
More chance of Sven Goran Ericsson and I painting our arrses blue and marching backwards down The Mall singing 'There'll Always be an England!" IMO.0 -
If we do (and I woudn't rule it it out from a "I wannabe elected" point of view), not sure where the volume of dosh will appear from. Not most UK savers or them pesky foreigners, so presumably it's sending Merv down to to PC World for the "buy a million get one free" offer on toner - maybe we could start using chinese bog-roll as a currency..?We won't have cuts to 3% just yet0 -
justpurchased wrote: »
Your conclusion was that everyone agrees on a 30% drop. They don't. Hence your conclusion was insecure / incorrect / wrong.0
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