Drops of only 19% predicted on spreadfair

napoleon

mewbie wrote: »

Look at us, all debating properly. No, I am not going to do the joke. But let's all carry on debating. I haven't debated so much since the last thread that made me burst out laughing.

Oh.. you want real debate. Sheesh. OK.

.

To be fair I've always regarded justpurchased as a master debater.

justpurchased

napoleon wrote: »

To be fair I've always regarded justpurchased as a master debater.

:rotfl:
here we go again.

If you only had small hands or some tweasers you could be one to.
Oh this is quite easy.

Kez100

Even 19% of the average house £200,000 is close to £40,000. That's a lot of negative equity for those that bought at the top and need to move or sellup - I cried when I owed £6000 in 1994 (then lived on tomato pasta for 6 months to help save myself out of it - I kid you not).

£40,000 ....eeek...all I can see is a mountain of tomato pasta!

Generali

So if the prediction is correct then if you buy with a 10% deposit you only lose your money twice over now rather than 2 1/2 times over like you would have done if you'd bought a couple of months ago.

Also we don't know why people are using Spreadfair. It might be an arbitrage movement or being used to hedge against another bet.

Gorgeous_George

!!!!!!? wrote: »

So 'only' another 19% - taking total drops close to 30% from the peak last summer.

Is this a 'peace offering' of bear food :rotfl:

I make it 27.91%.



GG

kennyboy66_2

Generali wrote: »

Also we don't know why people are using Spreadfair. It might be an arbitrage movement or being used to hedge against another bet.

Its largely irrelavent why people are using Spreadfair. If there is reasonable liquidity (and I have not looked), then the price, being a function of the opinion of a group of independent people is usually a much better indicator of where prices will be than any so called expert.

kennyboy66_2

tomstickland wrote: »

A spreadfair price just represents the average opinion of a mass of people. It doesn't imply any ability to predict the future. You'll find "dead cert" odds on Betfair for teams that go on to lose.

Of course nothing can predict the future, but if you are using the betfair analogy, you will struggle to find a better method. Of course 1.01's are beaten, but 99 times in 100 they are not.

The people who can beat the average opinion of a mass of people on betfair are few and far between.

Cannon_Fodder

tomstickland wrote: »

A spreadfair price just represents the average opinion of a mass of people. It doesn't imply any ability to predict the future. You'll find "dead cert" odds on Betfair for teams that go on to lose.

Forgive me Tom, for borrowing your comment, but I guess Kenny must have missed it.


I know some people have grasped at pretty obscure news/stats reports to make their point, but this takes the biscuit.

spark1

spreads are not normally far out

brit1234

Dan: wrote: »

Only 19%??? Nationwide reckon 25%, Brit1234 reckons 60%

Time will tell...

I'm still going for 60% at the veery bottom say in a bout 3 years. Based on 50% fall on 3.5 times salary and large deposit. Then roughly a 10% over correction. I've heard about 55-70% from some independant experts.

Things to take account of.

1. The banks have suffered huge cuts in profit and some big loses. It is only the start of this so it is likely their loses will continue for a fair while before they recover. Which in turn means reduced lending for some time.
2. Banks CDO vehicles are completly dead for the next few years and pretty much rights issues have failed and unlikley to help with people shorting the banks shares at the moment. Shorting seems the only way at the moment for investors to make money at the moment with plumeting shares and comodities. So a rights issuse is extremely hazzardous. Thus banks will purely have to rely on savings and most likely some type of limited liquidy from the BOE next month. I believe the European bank has stopped liquidty loans as well.
3. We still have the British sub prime to properly take hold ie self cert loans and buy to let. Give it one more year and we will see a massive increase in buy to let and other properties forced sell off/repossesions as the 2 year fixed mortgages come up making it harder to remortgage especially with the lower property valuations.
4. We are likely to have a mini dead cat bounce in January with people trying to talk the market up at the start of the peak season. It won't work as history illistrates markets always fall for years and government intervention always fails.

I recommend for all those first time buyers and property climbers to be patient and save, big falls are coming and can't be stopped now.