Drops of only 19% predicted on spreadfair

meester

IG Index predict:

UK (£180,300 June 2008)
September £170,900 (-5.2%)
December £164,400 (-8.8%)

London (£291,500 June 2008)
September £274,100 (-6.0%)
December £261,100 (-10.3%)

Looks like -10% in six months to me....

FWIW, the spreadfair prices for the same are 2 or 3% higher than IG. Presumably still some HPI crackpots betting on spreadfair, but the professionals at IG can't afford to be foolhardy.

ess0two

brit1234 wrote: »

I'm still going for 60% at the veery bottom say in a bout 3 years. Based on 50% fall on 3.5 times salary and large deposit. Then roughly a 10% over correction. I've heard about 55-70% from some independant experts.

Things to take account of.

1. The banks have suffered huge cuts in profit and some big loses. It is only the start of this so it is likely their loses will continue for a fair while before they recover. Which in turn means reduced lending for some time.
2. Banks CDO vehicles are completly dead for the next few years and pretty much rights issues have failed and unlikley to help with people shorting the banks shares at the moment. Shorting seems the only way at the moment for investors to make money at the moment with plumeting shares and comodities. So a rights issuse is extremely hazzardous. Thus banks will purely have to rely on savings and most likely some type of limited liquidy from the BOE next month. I believe the European bank has stopped liquidty loans as well.
3. We still have the British sub prime to properly take hold ie self cert loans and buy to let. Give it one more year and we will see a massive increase in buy to let and other properties forced sell off/repossesions as the 2 year fixed mortgages come up making it harder to remortgage especially with the lower property valuations.
4. We are likely to have a mini dead cat bounce in January with people trying to talk the market up at the start of the peak season. It won't work as history illistrates markets always fall for years and government intervention always fails.

I recommend for all those first time buyers and property climbers to be patient and save, big falls are coming and can't be stopped now.

I'll have toke on what you been smoking tonight.................

baby_boomer

I personally don't trust these indices.

1) they're only expectations / guestimates
2) won't they be used to hedge and so perhaps will be too negative (compared to other people's expectations - not necessarily compared to what will happen)? e.g. if I've just bought a £30m London house I might want to hedge by betting on London property falling?

justpurchased wrote: »

Looks like we all agree on 30%.

This seemed a rather quick leap to an insecure conclusion.

It may turn out to be 30% but I'm just an interested observer of the process.

justpurchased

baby_boomer wrote: »

I personally don't trust these indices.

1) they're only expectations / guestimates
2) won't they be used to hedge and so perhaps will be too negative (compared to other people's expectations - not necessarily compared to what will happen)? e.g. if I've just bought a £30m London house I might want to hedge by betting on London property falling?


This seemed a rather quick leap to an insecure conclusion.

It may turn out to be 30% but I'm just an interested observer of the process.

Surely everyone trying to guess where they will stop are a guestimate with the information they have! Of course unless you are a time traveller and know the exact drops and the time they will stop, tell me I might have a bet.

You will only listen to stuff you agree with, why would people off set buying their home against a betting site? If you would your a bit bonkers.

My conclusion is as insecure as anyone trying to guess the bottom (which I take it you are and are very likely to miss. I made £75k after costs in the last bubble which I used as my new deposit not as some little investment
scheme!, how many of you saved that in the last 6 years?)
They seem to cover there frailty by stupid comments and that they could happy rent for the whole of their life, If so why would house prices bother them?

Also did you not post that new builds are down 20% (I take it we are talking flats)
Barrat’ts say the average price up, like for like sales prices are down on last year but only 5%, but you would not report that would you:rolleyes: .

Heres the link I sorted out some of your conclutions and you all bottled it.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1148231

This site is lord of the flies it truly is.

baby_boomer

justpurchased wrote: »

My conclusion is as insecure as anyone trying to guess the bottom (which I take it you are and are very likely to miss.

I picked you up because you were making assumptions about others' conclusions.

I didn't even say you might be wrong. 30% is not unreasonable.

But again, you jump to more conclusions. Why do you assume that I am trying to catch the bottom or even guess it? I'm not. Why not let people speak for themselves and listen?

beingjdc

chucky wrote: »

IG Index and all of these indecies are for spread betting companies and would not really be used to hedge.

Really? I don't own a house at the moment, so I have used them to hedge by betting that house prices will go up (or down less than expected). So there's one hedge for you.

They have England at 8-1 to win the World Cup, is this likely? i don't think so.

Really? They're 11 on Betfair, which suggests we should win twice a century, which sounds about right.

napoleon

chucky wrote: »

IG Index and all of these indecies are for spread betting companies and would not really be used to hedge.

They have England at 8-1 to win the World Cup, is this likely? i don't think so.

err....no. That's why it's 8-1. If it were likely it might be 1-8 rather than 8-1.
Maybe if you spent a bit less time on this forum trolling and spent a bit more time on the gambling forum then you'd know this

GDB2222

napoleon wrote: »

err....no. That's why it's 8-1. If it were likely it might be 1-8 rather than 8-1.
Maybe if you spent a bit less time on this forum trolling and spent a bit more time on the gambling forum then you'd know this

I don't know anything about football, but I have a feeling that England's chances of winning the world cup are much worse than 1 in 8 (or 12.5%). Isn't that what Chucky meant?

Just as an aside, I think that you might get better odds on England winning if you make your bet in say Italy. There's probably, a cross-borders arbitrage opportunity here.

kennyboy66_2

GDB2222 wrote: »

I don't know anything about football, but I have a feeling that England's chances of winning the world cup are much worse than 1 in 8 (or 12.5%). Isn't that what Chucky meant?

Just as an aside, I think that you might get better odds on England winning if you make your bet in say Italy. There's probably, a cross-borders arbitrage opportunity here.

Betfair implies they have a 9% chance (they are priced at 11.0 or 10/1), you would NOT get a better price in Italy or anywhere else, you can occasionally get cross border arbs but they are tiny and the gaps close very quickly.

8/1 is a 1 in 9 chance, not 1 in 8.

StevieJ

brit1234 wrote: »

I'm still going for 60% at the veery bottom say in a bout 3 years. Based on 50% fall on 3.5 times salary and large deposit. Then roughly a 10% over correction. I've heard about 55-70% from some independant experts.

Things to take account of.

1. The banks have suffered huge cuts in profit and some big loses. It is only the start of this so it is likely their loses will continue for a fair while before they recover. Which in turn means reduced lending for some time.
2. Banks CDO vehicles are completly dead for the next few years and pretty much rights issues have failed and unlikley to help with people shorting the banks shares at the moment. Shorting seems the only way at the moment for investors to make money at the moment with plumeting shares and comodities. So a rights issuse is extremely hazzardous. Thus banks
3. will purely have to rely on savings and most likely some type of limited liquidy from the BOE next month. I believe the European bank has stopped liquidty loans as well.
4. We still have the British sub prime to properly take hold ie self cert loans and buy to let. Give it one more year and we will see a massive increase in buy to let and other properties forced sell off/repossesions as the 2 year fixed mortgages come up making it harder to remortgage especially with the lower property valuations.
5. We are likely to have a mini dead cat bounce in January with people trying to talk the market up at the start of the peak season. It won't work as history illistrates markets always fall for years and government intervention always fails.

I recommend for all those first time buyers and property climbers to be patient and save, big falls are coming and can't be stopped now.

You're avin a larf, go on tell us which expert predicted 70% fall? Just out of interest why do property loans have to be 3.5 times income? and you do not appear to have taken any account of joint salaries/wages. Also what about the professional BTL's who will be queuing up to buy properties well before the price drops you are forecasting. Not to mention interest rates of 3%