Where do you see house prices 2 years from now?

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

I don't know about Beeney but I think Krusty and Phil are doing the rounds on this board, 2 people have voted for 10% rises:rotfl:, come on Krusty and Phil show ya selves.:D

I think it is more possable then the fool who voted for a 50%+ fall.

For the record I have voted for 10% - 20% drop.

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

I think it is more possable then the fool who voted for a 50%+ fall.

For the record I have voted for 10% - 20% drop.

To be honest I dont think they would drop 50% but it could happen if some bizzarre event occured, however I am confident there is absolutely no chance at all that there could be 10%+ rises in the next 2 years.

Sir_Humphrey

A 50% fall in two years from now would require 3% monthly drops for two years.

A 50% fall in three years would need 2% monthly drops for three years.

The former is very unlikely IMO, the latter pretty unlikely. The duration of such steep falls (3 years) I have to say I would not expect.

Max_Headroom_3

I think the honest answer is that it isimpossible to predict. There are so many external factors, what happens with banks, what happens with the recession, what happens with inflation and interest rates, and so forth.

It is an interesting question in terms of what people think, but I don't think it could offer any sort of guide because there are just too many factors to be able to even begin to guess.

I voted for 20-30% down by the way, but only so's I could see the results!

Chris2685

According to my slightly fudged calculation Median household income is roughly 26k (I can't find any exact figures for this anywhere).
3x income = 78k
15% deposit = 11.7k
Average house price should be 89.7k by those estimates...

The trouble is, London and the SE really skew those figures, because earnings are more there usually, which allows for a higher property value in certain areas, although at the same time, prices should be significantly lower in other areas.

However, despite those facts (if some quick calculations I worked out that are probably wrong can be called facts), I think peoples obsession with home ownership will cause prices to not fall to an average of 3x income + 15% deposit. Maybe they will for a short time, but I doubt it will last.

I think that in 2 years time we will see prices at roughly what they are now. Household incomes will (should) be higher by then, and prices will drop crap loads in the next year, meaning loads of people will be in a position to pounce by 2 years from now. Suddenly we will be hearing all about this 'market repairing itself' and that will feed itself really to give people confidence to buy again.

Afterall, prices can't continuously have drops recently, where they % drop keeps increasing, otherwise we will end up with houses being worth nothing. The drops will slow down, so instead of 5% a month, we will have 1%, which looks much nicer in the newspapers. Suddenly there will be no drops, and a slight rise, house prices will appear to be booming again even though theyre not really, but percentage wise they will do.

Dan:_4

Chris2685 wrote: »

According to my slightly fudged calculation Median household income is roughly 26k (I can't find any exact figures for this anywhere).
3x income = 78k
15% deposit = 11.7k
Average house price should be 89.7k by those estimates...

The trouble is, London and the SE really skew those figures, because earnings are more there usually, which allows for a higher property value in certain areas, although at the same time, prices should be significantly lower in other areas.

However, despite those facts (if some quick calculations I worked out that are probably wrong can be called facts), I think peoples obsession with home ownership will cause prices to not fall to an average of 3x income + 15% deposit. Maybe they will for a short time, but I doubt it will last.

I think that in 2 years time we will see prices at roughly what they are now. Household incomes will (should) be higher by then, and prices will drop crap loads in the next year, meaning loads of people will be in a position to pounce by 2 years from now. Suddenly we will be hearing all about this 'market repairing itself' and that will feed itself really to give people confidence to buy again.

Afterall, prices can't continuously have drops recently, where they % drop keeps increasing, otherwise we will end up with houses being worth nothing. The drops will slow down, so instead of 5% a month, we will have 1%, which looks much nicer in the newspapers. Suddenly there will be no drops, and a slight rise, house prices will appear to be booming again even though theyre not really, but percentage wise they will do.

I can see where your coming from, but I think the process may be drawn out a lot longer then just 2 years.

I don't think banks will ever go back to the 3X Salary formula, and will continue to calculate the individual/couple's affordability - which is much more fair anyway IMO.

Chris2685

I agree, affordability is much fairer. But it's easier for me to make a quick post calculation using 3x income than working out average affordability of people in the UK

GDB2222

After 67 votes, average prediction is now -23%.

mr.broderick

GDB2222 wrote: »

Where do you see house prices 2 years from now? Please vote.

Wouldn't like to say where they will be 2 days from now..

GDB2222

It's just a bit of fun. It explains a few things, like why the bulls get shouted down by the bears, simply because the bears vastly outnumber the bulls - 90% of the votes cast are negative.