nationwide down 1.9%

poppy10_2

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

It was last summer that Martin put up a poll for guesses on house prices in 2008.

I punted on a modest decrease something like 2% - 5% .

Even the uber-bears at HPC mostly voted for a sub-10% fall in 2008 in their poll at the end of last year. The pace of this crash has been spectacular even for the "doom-mongers"

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=62765

WTF?_2

I'd say that a further 10% over 2009 looks like a cert at this stage with falls continuing well into 2010.

A lot of people who bought in recent years are going to bitterly regret doing so.

Jumping_Bean

TDS wrote: »

"While the pace of monthly falls picked up during the month, the less volatile three month on three month measure, eased very slightly in August to 4.5% from 4.6% in July"

4.5%ish every 3 months! What does that average for the year then if the falls stay at the same rate as the last 6 months? A helluvalot more than 10.5%!

mitchaa

!!!!!!? wrote: »

I'd say that a further 10% over 2009 looks like a cert at this stage with falls continuing well into 2010.

A lot of people who bought in recent years are going to bitterly regret doing so.

A lot but not all.

I certainly do not regret buying June 2007;) Similar houses on sale for a lot more than what i bought mine for last year (+£40k)

They're shifting too.

This 10% is a wide generalisation of a whole country which is pointless and most of all completely useless.

I would have wasted around £1100pm rental for 15mths since i bought, that's £16500 in rental. Instead i have paid around £4-5k off my capital and made in theory about £40k in growth.

Market currently is not moving up nor down.

So comments such as the comment 'MRSafeGaz' made is complete bol*ocks and has no relevance to a lot of people.

Generali

Jumping_Bean wrote: »

4.5%ish every 3 months! What does that average for the year then if the falls stay at the same rate as the last 6 months? A helluvalot more than 10.5%!

It means a fall of about 17% pa.

We haven't even had a recession yet let alone high unemployment. That's when we're really going to see blood on the carpet IMO as the Government runs out of cash and the unions start kicking up a fuss as the Government is forced to lay people off from public sector jobs traditionally seen as being immune to redundancies.

mewbie_2

mitchaa wrote: »

Market currently is not moving up nor down.

Are you serious? Or do you live in Toytown along with Noddy?

Cannon_Fodder

Stats are always generalised.

Strange how people have faith in them on the way up, but start to pull them apart on the way down...

There are regions that are defying gravity at the moment, Scotland too, but while "desirable" properties can hold out for a while, I suspect it won't be too long before the wider repossession/redundancy/inflation/crunch issues take greater precedence.

Once enough people "believe" the market has dropped 10%, it will be very difficult for individual house owners to insist their property deserves to be an exception.

Not to defend 'MRSafeGaz', but if your regional variation has "earnt" you £40k in 15 months, why is it impossibly that his/her region's scenario has saved £3-4k by avoiding buying? Both scenarios are possible in a varied market.

Jumping_Bean

Generali wrote: »

It means a fall of about 17% pa.

So with just a slight increase we could be looking at 20% in a single year! 20%! A single year! Sorry if I seem shocked but it's just dawned on me quite how large this crash is going to be. I don't think many people would have predicted almost 20% in a year. How much did prices fall in the last crash? 25%?

mewbie_2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Stats are always generalised..... Both scenarios are possible in a varied market.

I agree. However if someone makes a statement that seems so at odds with what we're hearing I would like a postcode to do some PropertyBee checking with.

Generali

Jumping_Bean wrote: »

So with just a slight increase we could be looking at 20% in a single year! 20%! A single year! Sorry if I seem shocked but it's just dawned on me quite how large this crash is going to be. I don't think many people would have predicted 20% in a year. How much did prices fall in the last crash? 25%?

On average 31% in real terms. Very little in nominal terms I believe as inflation was quite high.

20% pa is possible but a little unlikely IMO as the market is very illiquid. The only way that is likely is if illiquidity starts to work such that the only sales going through are very heavily discounted.