nationwide down 1.9%

fc123

Cleaver wrote: »

Worst case scenario: we both lose our jobs, we can't even get a job at McDonalds, and the bank takes our house and we're left with nothing. We'd move back with one set of our parents pretty down about things but [probably then start all over.

Reality is for most people (most being 80%?) that they are at a point in their career which is higher paid than when they bought their house. If I lost my 40k job in my industry, and simply couldn't find another job at that level of pay, I'd go tail between my legs and get a 20k job in my industry, where I was 5 years ago. Which is still more than enough to pay the mortgage on my house.

I remember being a first time buyer with my missus and thinking how scary it was to be buying at a time when we just knew house prices would come down. Then we worked out how much we'd earn if we both had to take jobs stacking shelfs, realised this would be enough to always pay our mortgage and therefore, even though we'd be living on beans on toast, we could cope.

Everyone on this forum is right: there will be some idiots out there who took more money than they could afford, will fall on bad times and will end up in a lot of trouble. I just think this will be the minority. The rest of us will go for a couple less meals out a week, get their hair cut at home, holiday in France rather than the Bahamas for a few years and generally cope with things.

This post has really made me think.............absolute worst case scenarion..we are both in min wage McJobs of 40 hours p wk. Mortgage on interest only.....it adds up. However, 15 years ago, it didn't add up at all........but that's the past and Now is Now.

Cleaver

seraphina wrote: »

So most people may only go out half as much - the next thing you know, your local restaurant/gastropub can't afford to stay open. There's a dozen people out of work and looking for jobs. You have one week away in the UK instead of weekends away and a foreign holiday - ferry companies start reducing their capacity, and laying off staff. Tourist areas in the UK find that they have more availability - people aren't going for weekends away. Oh look, there's a few B&Bs gone bust...

The point is, even if most people tighten their belts in the manner you describe, that's very bad news indeed for the UK economy, given that it's so heavily based on consumer spending.

You've just described a recession, and you're correct. But I can still afford my house and this was the consideration I made when I bought it. Does this make me selfish?

I ask this as a genuine question by the way, not a rhetorical one!

Cleaver

seraphina wrote: »

So most people may only go out half as much - the next thing you know, your local restaurant/gastropub can't afford to stay open. There's a dozen people out of work and looking for jobs. You have one week away in the UK instead of weekends away and a foreign holiday - ferry companies start reducing their capacity, and laying off staff. Tourist areas in the UK find that they have more availability - people aren't going for weekends away. Oh look, there's a few B&Bs gone bust...

Or you could look at it another way: sales of home breadmaking kits will soar, hair clippers will fly off the shelfs and people with cottages in France will see a boom time.

seraphina

Cleaver wrote: »

You've just described a recession, and you're correct. But I can still afford my house and this was the consideration I made when I bought it. Does this make me selfish?

I ask this as a genuine question by the way, not a rhetorical one!

Not selfish at all - I'm just pointing out that whilst it's all very well to consider things in isolation, reality has a nasty habit of getting in the way - if it's as bad as the doomongers make out, even minimum wage jobs will be very thin on the ground. Although I should add as a disclaimer I am mostly incredibly conservative and pessimistic where my household finances are concerned - if I plan for the worst (no jobs, unable to work, insert doomsday scenario here :rotfl:) then I may be pleasantly surprised!

Cleaver

seraphina wrote: »

Not selfish at all - I'm just pointing out that whilst it's all very well to consider things in isolation, reality has a nasty habit of getting in the way - if it's as bad as the doomongers make out, even minimum wage jobs will be very thin on the ground. Although I should add as a disclaimer I am mostly incredibly conservative and pessimistic where my household finances are concerned - if I plan for the worst (no jobs, unable to work, insert doomsday scenario here :rotfl:) then I may be pleasantly surprised!

That's very true. And if you plan for worst case scenario you'll always be okay. We live the same way to be honest - our incomes have gone up but we live the same lifestyle as we always have (possibly more frugal since lurking on this site for tips!).

The issue of jobs is an interesting one and I'm a bit loathe to discuss it as it's the only subject where I start to sound like a raving, right-wing Tory. But briefly, I think if you make a bit of effect to get some qualifications and be enthusiastic about work generally you'll always be okay to get a job. I worked in a restaurant for years and there wasn't a single hour of any day where we didn't need people. So during the years I worked there if someone walked in, was pleasant and demonstrated they weren't a complete idiot they could have a job with us.

I still stand by my theory that even during very dark economic times, most people will pretty much be okay if they have a bit of common sense, work ethic and are prepared to tighten their belt.

Generali

Cleaver wrote: »

That's very true. And if you plan for worst case scenario you'll always be okay. We live the same way to be honest - our incomes have gone up but we live the same lifestyle as we always have (possibly more frugal since lurking on this site for tips!).

The issue of jobs is an interesting one and I'm a bit loathe to discuss it as it's the only subject where I start to sound like a raving, right-wing Tory. But briefly, I think if you make a bit of effect to get some qualifications and be enthusiastic about work generally you'll always be okay to get a job. I worked in a restaurant for years and there wasn't a single hour of any day where we didn't need people. So during the years I worked there if someone walked in, was pleasant and demonstrated they weren't a complete idiot they could have a job with us.

I still stand by my theory that even during very dark economic times, most people will pretty much be okay if they have a bit of common sense, work ethic and are prepared to tighten their belt.

The wonders of the welfare state are such that you never need to take a job. I just lost mine and I worked out that assuming that I can get the council to pay my rent, I'll need to earn about £28k pa (gross) to replace sickness benefits for Mrs Generali and I.

If the economy gets as bad as I suspect it will then that will have to change pronto.

Cleaver

Generali wrote: »

The wonders of the welfare state are such that you never need to take a job. I just lost mine and I worked out that assuming that I can get the council to pay my rent, I'll need to earn about £28k pa (gross) to replace sickness benefits for Mrs Generali and I.

If the economy gets as bad as I suspect it will then that will have to change pronto.

Sorry to hear that Mr Generali, hope you find something shortly.

Your 28k statistic is quite shocking. I'm not a Daily Mail reader, so not fully up to date with the extravagances of the benefits system.

ManAtHome

Cleaver wrote: »

You've just described a recession, and you're correct. But I can still afford my house and this was the consideration I made when I bought it. Does this make me selfish?

Depends what your job is really - as Cleaver posted (and many others in a similar vein over the last few months), the UK economy is more than a bit incestuous and could easily drop into a "spiral of death".

Selfish? You should be - I don't plan on chipping in to help anyone who believed the "it's different this time" crap.

Cleaver

ManAtHome wrote: »

Depends what your job is really - as Cleaver posted (and many others in a similar vein over the last few months), the UK economy is more than a bit incestuous and could easily drop into a "spiral of death".

Selfish? You should be - I don't plan on chipping in to help anyone who believed the "it's different this time" crap.

What's a "spiral of death"?

ManAtHome

Cleaver wrote: »

What's a "spiral of death"?

Last year:
Cheap credit, get humungous mortgage (is cheap and housey-go-up-long-time), need to impress neighbours, increase cheap mortgage and get round the shops, shops/houses increasing sales, open more outlets, employ more people who can ge humungous mortgages... etc etc.

This year:
Expensive credit, no humungous mortgages on offer, shops sales dropping, employ fewer people, shop/houses drop further (reduced dosh supply), shop/houses drop further (even lower dosh supply), banks lose money (repossessions), loan rates increase to cover losses, mortgage market shrinks even more... etc etc.

Basically, we import more than we export and make up the gap by flogging stuff to ourselves and borrowing more than we earn, but the borrowing tap has been turned down.