House Prices UP 3.5% YOY. Land Registry

Bestthingsinlifearefree

With the Land Registry's latest figures out today showing house prices UP year on year by 3.5%.

It looks like the people who bought in 2004 / 2005 did the right thing after all and all those who "waited and see" have wasted another year renting waiting for the house price crash that never arrived.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4415014.stm


As for those who sold to rent no doubt they are feeling a bit silly now.

However no doubt "meanmachine" will say that eveyone who works for the BBC and Land Registry are actually estate agents trying to talk up the market !!!

Ok everyone the house price crash has been cancelled, move along now, there is nothing to see here.

It look like business as usual in the housing market with the trend seeming to be gentle price rises of 1-4% over 2005 - 2006.

zag2me

I bought my house 6 months ago and am really happy i did so, all this houseprice value nonsense doesnt really bother me as I have my own place now and can afford the repayments. Its all "paper money" to me. Im not suprised prices have gone up, but its only by the same amount as inflation. I'm sure there are better investments around than property.

IN_LIKE_EVERYONE_ELSE!

Blip.........................

wibble68_2

Bestthingsinlifearefree wrote:

Ok everyone the house price crash has been cancelled, move along now, there is nothing to see here.

It look like business as usual in the housing market with the trend seeming to be gentle price rises of 1-4% over 2005 - 2006.

It's got to be said that this is some of the finest spin I've come across for a long time.

Ok lets get back to the real world.

Q2 2004 YOY = 16.48%
Q3 2004 YOY = 16.27%
Q4 2004 YOY = 11.82%
Q1 2005 YOY = 10.27%
Q2 2005 YOY = 5.43%
Q3 2005 YOY = 3.52%

Now unless I've got this all kinds of wrong this shows a massive downward trend for annual price inflation.

In fact to have got as low as a 3.52% annual increase, the change for Q3 2005 itself must be very close to 0% or negative.

Does anyone know the actual quarterly change for Q3?

I believe Q2 was 0.4%.

Somebody please correct me if I'm looking at this data incorrectly.

Bestthingsinlifearefree

wibble68 wrote:

It's got to be said that this is some of the finest spin I've come across for a long time.

Ok lets get back to the real world.

Q2 2004 YOY = 16.48%
Q3 2004 YOY = 16.27%
Q4 2004 YOY = 11.82%
Q1 2005 YOY = 10.27%
Q2 2005 YOY = 5.43%
Q3 2005 YOY = 3.52%

Now unless I've got this all kinds of wrong this shows a massive downward trend for annual price inflation.

In fact to have got as low as a 3.52% annual increase, the change for Q3 2005 itself must be very close to 0% or negative.

Does anyone know the actual quarterly change for Q3?

I believe Q2 was 0.4%.

Somebody please correct me if I'm looking at this data incorrectly.

Hi Wibble,

The data you are showing shows an inevitable slow down in house price GROWTH (nobody ever thought house prices could keep rising at 16% a year etc).

The key point is we have now reached a level of sustainable price GROWTH 1 - 4 %.

Many people made the mistake of confusing an inevitable and rapid slow down in price GROWTH with a house price crash. They are two very different things and the scenario we are seeing is a slow down in house price GROWTH.

Now if you look at the figures from the real world. Below is the Average House price in Eng and Wales based on Land Registry figures (ie the price a house actually sold for).

Jan - March 2004 - Average of All = £166,404

July - September 2004: Average of All = 187,971

October - December 2004: Average of All = 182,920

January - March 2005: Average of All = 183,486

April - June 2005: Average of All = 184,924

July - Sept 2005 Average of ALL = 194,589 (latest figures released today)


As you can see wibble in the real world over the last 12 months or so the average house price in Eng and Wales has remained fairly stable / going up slowly in price (3.5%+).

One thing we can all agree on is there is no sign of a house price crash.

Gently rising prices are not a sign of a house price crash !!!

Doozergirl

IN_LIKE_EVERYONE_ELSE! wrote:

Blip.........................

A quality, reasoned, intellectual argument.

meanmachine_2

Bestthings must be mortgaged up to his/her eyeballs to wish to keep such a close eye on the minutae of national house prices.

In some areas I'm looking to buy, prices have gone down. Phew.

In others, they've gone up a little. But those areas are probably out of my price range anyway.

And bestthings, WHY can't you promise those who bought in 2005 16% HPI yoy? Those who bought before then did. Seems a little unfair.

Why did prices go up 16% in one year anyway? and why can't they keep going up? I'd love to know your answer.

I spoke to an agent today. She swore blind that business was brisk and that properties were "flying out" the window. Uh right. That's why half the stock has been unsold for 9 months.

Someone's telling porkies somewhere...

Doozergirl

wibble68 wrote:

It's got to be said that this is some of the finest spin I've come across for a long time.

Does anyone know the actual quarterly change for Q3?

Quarterly change for the average house is, according to my maths is +5.23%. This could easily be read as spin, so the YOY figure of +3.52% is, in fact, a very balanced view as it includes the fall at the end of last year.

vishpatel

wibble68 wrote:

Q2 2004 YOY = 16.48%
Q3 2004 YOY = 16.27%
Q4 2004 YOY = 11.82%
Q1 2005 YOY = 10.27%
Q2 2005 YOY = 5.43%
Q3 2005 YOY = 3.52%

Anyone want to take a guess on what comes next? And after that....

There was always going to be a little resistance to HPI going negative. Vendors refuse to budge on their asking price, and so volumes go down.

Volumes ARE down... tick tock

Bestthingsinlifearefree

Hi MeanMachine,

Unless you think the Land Registry is part of some conspiracy (in which case it could be advisable to visit the doctor).

The simple fact is house prices on average are 3.5% more expensive than last year (about 8K up).

Its a simple fact from the Land Registry based on all recorded sales price.

(it has nothing to do with EA's,China,BBC, KGB or even me !!etc etc or some other conspiracy theory)

In fact its just old fashioned reality !!!! (though it seems hard to accept for some).

In regard to why prices cannot keep rising at 16% per year it is down affordability.

Current prices are clearly sustainable (as they have been sustained for a year). Unfortunately you have missed the boat on large capital gains.

If you cannot accept the Land Reg figures or believe they are false, all I can do is suggest you sue them for lying and releasing false data.

vishpatel

Bestthingsinlifearefree wrote:

Current prices are clearly sustainable (as they have been sustained for a year). Unfortunately you have missed the boat on large capital gains.

This boat your talking about?? Is it the Titanic by chance?