Savills - No recovery for 8 years

justpurchased

dopester wrote: »

The withdrawal of credit. Slightly important no? Savills aren't a bank.

Demand doesn't matter if the credit isn't there to satisfy it by giving credit to FTB to buy at these levels, and there is a long way down to go. The credit crunch has barely started to squeeze yet.

There is a heavy recession/depression coming, and probably political instability as well in the coming deflationary economic shock. And a lot of those owner-occupiers will see the value of their houses fall anyway and lets hope their own working income isn't badly affected for diminished purchasing power. Everything is connected to everything else.

Trillions in malinvestments at the expense of excess debt don't get "wished away". No recovery can come in to play until the excess debt is deflated/eliminated.

The entire system has reached a debt ceiling, financial institutions wobbling (you really think they'll go back to easy money x8 immediately if they survive?).

Some one does know the future.
Is it David Icke, are you just having a stab in the dark like everyone else.
You dont know like the rest of us.

dopester

justpurchased wrote: »

Some one does know the future.
Is it David Icke, are you just having a stab in the dark like everyone else.
You dont know like the rest of us.

Whatever - I'm not arguing with you. People who resort to "no crystal ball" stuff usually are pretty unintelligent I find.

We can make educated projections of what can happen with data and reasoning and logic, and I see a lot more downside to come. You "justpurchased" obviously have good reasons to dismiss a severely negative outlook for property market.

fatpig_2

GDB2222 wrote: »

I


Savills recovery map suggests that London and the South-East will lead the recovery and will quickly return to former levels, by 2012 whilst

What's Savills on? 4 years isn't quick in anyone's book. :T

fatpig_2

justpurchased wrote: »

Some one does know the future.
Is it David Icke, are you just having a stab in the dark like everyone else.
You dont know like the rest of us.

Banks will have learnt their lesson, for a generation at least. They won't be lending every tom, !!!!!! and harry 10+ times their salary. So just how can average prices of over £300K be sustainable in London and the South-East?

Jumping_Bean

justpurchased wrote: »

Surely a long slow fall lastime equalled a long slow recovery.
Why would a fast fall not be backed by a fast recovery. you cant go on the past it is future factors that will count and sorry no one knows so its best left to se what happens.
No one knows

Actually last time there was a fast drop over about 2 years (Very similar to whats happening now by the way (although not quite as bad)). This was then followed by more moderate to slow decreases for the next 4 years. Prices didn't "recover" to what they were previously until about 6 years after that (2002).

Also, I hope even you will agree that house prices are far far far more overpriced than they were last time. So unless you're suggesting that prices are going to absolutely collapse over a very short period of time to bring them back to affordable levels plus a bit of overshoot (50% over a year?), then it would stand to reason that it's going to take a tiny bit longer than 4 years for things to "recover".

Jumping_Bean

dopester wrote: »

People who resort to "no crystal ball" stuff usually are pretty unintelligent I find.

Totally agree with that. The crystal ball stuff really makes me laugh.

Jumping_Bean

justpurchased wrote: »

Some one does know the future.
Is it David Icke, are you just having a stab in the dark like everyone else.
You dont know like the rest of us.

Do you learn from your mistakes? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you do. So you look at what happened in the past and apply it to the present / future. It's not always going to be 100% correct but it gives you a much better starting point than muttering on about crystal balls.

mewbie_2

My take is that if this is the best a VI can come up with then it's going to be much much worse. The nonsense about recovery is so pathetic it is laughable. We have just burst the biggest housing bubble since modern records began. They can try blowing it back up all they like - it ain't going to inflate again.

baby_boomer

hostman wrote: »

If you look at the data on the last crash, it took 9 years for prices to return to their peaks.

And 9 years on from the UK stock market peak the FTSE 100 is still 25% down and looking shaky.

Maybe Savills are being optimistic, as usual .

ffacoffipawb

baby_boomer wrote: »

Mail

Savills expects London and the South East to lead a price recovery from 2012 but it will take another 4 years for the North East & NI to regain losses.

How's about that then, goodness gracious!