Savills - No recovery for 8 years

baby_boomer

Mail

Savills expects London and the South East to lead a price recovery from 2012 but it will take another 4 years for the North East & NI to regain losses.

Cannon_Fodder

At first I thought they were shooting themselves in the foot, to talk down the market in this way...

But maybe it a "clever" double-bluff, to drum up sales now, by implying its going to get lots worse and be a long wait...

Some people may have been prepared to wait out 12-24 months, but 8 years is a different ball-game.

justpurchased

baby_boomer wrote: »

Mail

Savills expects London and the South East to lead a price recovery from 2012 but it will take another 4 years for the North East & NI to regain losses.

So prices recovered in 4 years Unless you are in the NE and NI.
If you look at the + side it looks like prices will start increase in arround a years time. So a slow increase in prices from there on. So 20-30% recovery over 3 years, depending on how low prices drop.

justpurchased

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

At first I thought they were shooting themselves in the foot, to talk down the market in this way...

But maybe it a "clever" double-bluff, to drum up sales now, by implying its going to get lots worse and be a long wait...

Some people may have been prepared to wait out 12-24 months, but 8 years is a different ball-game.

Agreed they need to sell houses to survive. It a case of drop your prices we need to make money! I think the concensus is that if you want to sell in the current climate knock 20-30% of your July07 value.

fatpig_2

justpurchased wrote: »

So prices recovered in 4 years.

Errr...no. I think you've misread the article. It means that they won't stop falling for another 4 years, and 8 years for NI and NE

hostman

Hardly a shock.

If you look at the data on the last crash, it took 9 years for prices to return to their peaks.

lostinrates

Just wow.

I guess the stagnation is just crippling and that releasing such a statement is in the hope sellers will accet big drops and get some market turnover again, albeit at a lower rate.

8 years is not a surprise really, its why we have been saying we don't want to buy a typical first time buyer house because by then we'll be properly middle aged and had any children we are going to have. I think people moving so much has been part of the problem....

Dithering_Dad

Do we want prices to 'recover'. I'd be happy for stagnation over the next 40 years.

lostinrates

I'd be happy for them to stay in line with inflation, but I think realistically longterm stagnation is extraordinarily unlikely-on my basis of no knowledge whatsoever. Is there a precidant for this, elsewhere in the ('democratic') world or in UK history?

harbinger13

Difficult to substantiate - over time - young couples will develop the dream of owning a house. So given that there are quite a sizable population of 28-35 who want to step on the housing ladder - there will be demand (with price haggling of course).

Infact one of the demand factors is age - what use is it if you try to buy a Ferrari at 45 odd and drive fast, when ones heart is full of cholesterol from the good old eating of pies and chips - and the person will clutch his heart after reaching 100 miles in 3rd gear. Demand will come for the housing - what is needed is an event (catastrophic followed by recovery OR some positive event). After the depression in 1930's the drum up of war helped and the economies went wild. In 1970's I am not too knowledgeable of an event. In late 1980's it was ending of Cold War. From 2001 onwards it was the building after Sept11. Historical events will cause a rise in demand.

As usual there is an exception - Japan it has stagnated for ages and now its population is reducing! Difficult to analyze that country and its future - probably it is just video games for the future there.

Woby_Tide

fatpig wrote: »

Errr...no. I think you've misread the article. It means that they won't stop falling for another 4 years, and 8 years for NI and NE

if something recovers it means its returning to a former state, if the prices are going to take 8 years to recover then they are saying that in 8 years time they will be back at this level, not falling for 8 years. Thats my interpretation of the article wording.

"
The last regions to bounce back are likely to be the North East and Northern Ireland – around 2016. "
"'This downturn is severe and will almost certainly last for another year. "

being two of the quotes that makes it sound like a return