Savills - No recovery for 8 years

GDB2222

ffacoffipawb wrote: »

How's about that then, goodness gracious!

Going off at a tangent for a moment, it beats me that Jimmy S can stand in front of a BUPA fun run poster, wearing a tracksuit, and with a bloody great cigar in his mouth. Kind of mixed messages there.

WTF?_2

Generali wrote: »

I can see no good reason for house prices ever to be at the same real level as they are now in Northern Ireland unless the economy improves substantially. Not urban regeneration schemes but an actual economy based on people selling things.

This isn't Generali having a pop at Northern Ireland just an observation of the economy there. I'd like the NI economy to improve as then my taxes could fall or at least a little more of them might be spent on me.

Are you saying that Belfast doesn't have more for it going than London then

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/house-home/belfast-houses-more-expensive-than-london-13457612.html

Tuesday, 10 July 2007
House prices in some parts of Northern Ireland are more expensive than those in London, it emerged today.
The latest figures from the Nationwide Regional House Price Report show that the average home will set Ulster buyers back £225,447 - up 54% on last year.
And, according to the study, a house in Belfast now costs a staggering £300,229 on average - compared with a mean price of £292,409 in London.
Average Northern Ireland salary is I believe in the region of £20k.......

ManAtHome

GDB2222 wrote: »

Going off at a tangent for a moment, it beats me that Jimmy S can stand in front of a BUPA fun run poster, wearing a tracksuit, and with a bloody great cigar in his mouth. Kind of mixed messages there.

Maybe it's a "I do heaps for charity, but SHOCK! HORROR! I smoke cigars, whereas BUPA are a righteous gang of commercial money-grubbing (posssibly non-smoking) peeps who need a bit of publicity" kinda thang..?

baby_boomer

GDB2222 wrote: »

Barnes again, "This downturn is severe and will almost certainly last for at least another year. But it is has been caused by the withdrawal of credit, not the withdrawal of long-term demand or by diminished purchasing power amongst owner occupiers.

Er Hello.

What planet are Savill's on if they think that owner occupiers have the same amount to spend on a mortgage in 2008 as they had in 2007. And the same sum doesn't buy the same mortgage anyway!

Our purchasing power is likely to remain diminished.

justpurchased

Jumping_Bean wrote: »

Totally agree with that. The crystal ball stuff really makes me laugh.

Did i mension a crytal ball no. I said you do not know.
How many of you called when house prices were going to fall corectly?????
From what i gather it was from arround 03/04 only 4 years out not a bad guess as they were going to fall some time!
I guess they will be rising agian in 2 years that gives me 6 years yes. BUT THAT WOULD BE A GUESS! I cant be sure i am not a time traveler. Of course some of you are in your own bedrooms.:rotfl: .
And to say 50% that is Oct 99 levels from peak (or 96 from now), that would make houses around 40% under trend over the last 20+ years it wont happen. I give you guys 40% best realisticly arround 30% on the average property price.

Dont miss the boat again you will only be moaning again for the next 15 years. But if your going to rent why would it intrest you so

justpurchased

Jumping_Bean wrote: »

Do you learn from your mistakes? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you do. So you look at what happened in the past and apply it to the present / future. It's not always going to be 100% correct but it gives you a much better starting point than muttering on about crystal balls.

So you would class buying a house in the 1990s as a mistake even though the peron purchased it as a home, have a small mortgage and there house is worth nearly twice what they purchased it for and the mortgage is less than half they could rent it for.(not me by the way)

Depends how you class as a mistake. You look at property as an investment not a home. Stick to renting or living with your parents if you dont like house ownership dont buy its up to you.

neverdespairgirl

justpurchased wrote: »

Did i mension a crytal ball no. I said you do not know.
How many of you called when house prices were going to fall corectly?????
From what i gather it was from arround 03/04 only 4 years out not a bad guess as they were going to fall some time!

I thought they were overpriced and heading for a fall in early 2006 - 18 months from the peak. Oh, and prices are now, on average, lower than they were then, I think!

justpurchased

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I thought they were overpriced and heading for a fall in early 2006 - 18 months from the peak. Oh, and prices are now, on average, lower than they were then, I think!

So when will you buy 18 months after they start going up! There are no awards for being almost right is there. You either buy a home or you dont. I purchased in 01, sold it for 5% off peak price (Sold April Compleated July) and purchased a larger home last month for 30% below peak price. Difference is I dont want :T or a gold star I needed a bigger home to live in and the current state of the market helped me to do that. I was not prepared to sit on a STR fund and make my family live in a damp rabbit huttch. I have no plans to move and we are happy and can easily afford it, so why people want to call the bottom and the top of the markets is beyond me surley you are as greedy BTL'ers you go on about!

Dithering_Dad

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I thought they were overpriced and heading for a fall in early 2006 - 18 months from the peak. Oh, and prices are now, on average, lower than they were then, I think!

That's about the time I was thinking the same. I was also thinking that the level of indebtedness carried by large sections of the UK population would make matters worse. I did try and convince Mrs Dither to sell our house and go into rental accomodation (something I remind her about every time we see a news report about falling house prices) but she refused, saying that her house is a home not an investment. In retrospect I think she was right, we like our house and neighbours and I don't think we'd be happy renting.

Instead I decided to pay off the mortgage, and so started the Mortgage Free in 3 yrs challenge on the MFW board. I've no idea what my house is 'worth', but I do know that I've reduced my mortgage by 25% so far and feel a lot happier about our ability as a family to survive an economic downturn than before the MFi3 challenge.

No one has a crystal ball, but anyone with an interest in financial matters could see that the UK was heading for trouble with all the secured, unsecured and mortgage debt. All you can do is try your best to secure your family and ride out the 'storm'. Once this is done, I don't see the point of then talking/reading incessantly about economic bad news, you can't do anything more to protect yourself and it just makes you feel depressed. You just have to get on with your life and hope for the best.

lostinrates

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

. All you can do is try your best to secure your family and ride out the 'storm'. Once this is done, I don't see the point of then talking/reading incessantly about economic bad news, you can't do anything more to protect yourself and it just makes you feel depressed. You just have to get on with your life and hope for the best.

But trying to keep up with the gloom is part of how I am riding out the storm. Also, as someone waiting to buy the markets and their state will have some influence on our timing to buy, with which institution we mortgage with and certainly what we do with the money til then. I also think its no bad thing for people of my generation and younger to follow this, to have it drummed into us as hard as possible so that some of us opt not to sell our souls for a plasma screen in the future.