Recovery of the Housing Market will come Quickly

Rebchappers

I have only been on this forum for the past 4 or 5 weeks, but i just wanted to ask something... What was your view on the market say, 2 years ago.... did you all predict that the market would crash the way it has, or were you in the mind set that house prices would continue to rise?

This is just a general question and is not aimed at anyone in particular

It seems that everyone is an 'expert' when it comes to the housing market. If you all know what is going to happen, and are advising FTB NOT to buy now, then why did everyone buy at the peak over the last 3 or 4 years? I dont know if that makes any sense, but its hard to explain what i mean....!

Its honestly not meant as a dig at anyone... im just curious!

neverdespairgirl

Rebchappers wrote: »

I have only been on this forum for the past 4 or 5 weeks, but i just wanted to ask something... What was your view on the market say, 2 years ago.... did you all predict that the market would crash the way it has, or were you in the mind set that house prices would continue to rise?

This is just a general question and is not aimed at anyone in particular

I can answer that for me.

OH and I were in a financial position to buy in 2005, but not ready for many other reasons (including me being heavily pregnant, then having a newborn baby).

We started to look at the idea seriously at the end of 2005, start of 2006, and gradually, after considering it carefully, decided that the market was on a rapid and unsustainable trajectory.

macaque_2

pickledpink wrote: »

Recovery of the Housing Market will come Quickly
In the press today there was a very interesting article by the Chief Executive of the MLA............................



Peter Williams, chief executive of the intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association which represents lenders who sell mortgages via brokers, insisted we are not seeing a repeat of the early 1990s property crash.

He said: 'While arrears and possessions are clearly on the up - this is no mortgage meltdown akin to what we saw back in 1991.

'There's no doubt that with rising food and fuel prices, people have less spare cash. But the pain of this slowdow will be short and sharp.

'In the past house prices have been driven down by a lack of demand.

'But house prices have come down rapidly in the last year because mortgage finance has dried up - this is a very different type of adjustment for the UK economy.

'Normally a self-correction in the housing market feels like an elastoplast being peeled off very slowly. What we've seen over the last 12 months is a quick, sharp rip.

'That should mean recovery comes more quickly than it has in past slowdowns.'

:beer:

I can almost hear the Laurel and Hardy music in your post.

If there is an argument in favour of a recovery, you need to cite better evidence.

Will it be stimulated by a rising population?
The reality is that we are in something of a demographic trough (in terms of the UK birth rate) and from what I read, the East Europeans are leaving in their droves.

Rising employment?
Jobs are dissapearing at a rate of 20,000 a month and rising.

Rising incomes?
Inflation is outstripping pay rises by 2:1.

Despite all the spin, the country is awash with unwanted property. People who have been hoarding houses for years are dumping them in panic. Whole estates of new homes are lying empty. Having enjoyed an Indian summer in the early part of this year, rents are also on the slide.

If there is a recovery, it will be to a lower level than we have to day from a very much lower level. This may be a recovery Jim, but not as we know it.

Tassotti

It's a blip.

The most house prices have ever come down is 27%.

This is a 10% blip, and these HPCers will still realise that houses should be earned by hard work.

In the meantime, all good for me, rentas are rising (due to demand, not supply :rotfl:) and everyone still waiting will be waiting for ever more

dougs

rebeccaj wrote: »

MRDA, I believe

well, quite so :rotfl:

Gangstabird

rizla01 wrote: »

Does anyone wonder, like me, that just MAYBE the Government released that suggestion re Stamp Duty, on purpose?

It's easy to accuse them of being idiots as they have proved this so many times in the past but, just MAYBE???

Perhaps they actually DID realise that it would quickly put the brakes on a fast dying market.

If so, what might be their agenda here?

Not sure, you can bet for sure that many of the 'people in Govt.' have properties and like many of us are desparate to get things on an even keel. Imagine poor Blair with his billion pound house in Connaught square or wherever it is. After all lots of the decision makers are probably going to lose money here as people with money have been putting it into property.

I just do not think that Mr Darling thought before he spoke. Their agenda - they just don't know what to do. I mean, they changed the rules on BR so that people could only not have credit for a few years, that kept the market going for a while as it used to be years before bad debt was written off. They gave the decision on IR to the BofE which was possibly good, but has probably bitten them in the bum now as it's foreign money which needs to be clawed back and no foreign investor is going to give a s hite as to the state of the UK - not anymore.

Interesting question anyway. Thanks.

m1ntie

"I don't think that, even for £220k a year, I would be able to lie through my teeth, so I wouldn't be suitable for the job."

No reliance should be placed on the above! Absolutely none, do you hear?

Hectors_House

It seems that everyone is an 'expert' when it comes to the housing market. If you all know what is going to happen, and are advising FTB NOT to buy now, then why did everyone buy at the peak over the last 3 or 4 years? I dont know if that makes any sense, but its hard to explain what i mean....!

Its honestly not meant as a dig at anyone... im just curious![/quote]

I'm one of those people that have been predicting a slowdown in the housing market and world economy for the last two years.

I haven't done it openly except for trying to save a friend who went from a solid, long-standing BTLer (with just a couple of properties with very small mortgages) to believing the financial advisors and leveraging one property against the other to buy more and is now in trouble.

Why did FTBers keep on buying? I guess a good proportion of them didn't read forums like MSE and housepricecrash or the financial sections of their newspapers and saw people around them getting 'rich' and wanted a piece of the action. It's unfortunately easy for folks to buy at the peak of a asset bubble when they don't know they're doing it. And the banks made it so easy with their two or three year fix mortgages and told the buyer not to worry cus by the time it came to its end and they faced the SVR they could easily remortgage on to an even cheaper fixed rate cus the govt/BOE wouldn't LET interest rates rise.

I began to think something was wrong when I saw youngsters at work buying new-builds at nearly £200k and new cars on a £14k salary. that just doesn't add up. I'm now seeing them going to the wall and young families breaking up under the stress.

If anyone here needs proof that the economy has turned just take yourselves across to the Mortgage or Debtfreewannabe boards. They both make very sad reading at the moment and it's going to get worse.

mewbie_2

Good find from PickledPink, it's nice to know all is not doom and gloom. I have some other stuff here showing it's not the end of the world as you doom monger's would have it.

Shoes are good for walking in - Shoemaker Assocation of GB
Cats make good pets - Feline Club
Turkey sales increasing - Bernard Matthews
Car Manufacturers see next year improvement - Car Manufacturers Assocation
More voters than ever support GB - Labour Party
Laminate flooring adds 20% to house value - Laminate Flooring Suppliers

rizla01

chickmug wrote: »

What do you think their agenda could be?

Personally, I think PM Brown instructed Darling after a rumour that his 'Mate' B Liar was about to put his house on the market.:D

Re the downward predictors.

Surely if you keep saying that property will come down, you are BOUND to be proven right SOMETIME as traditionally property comes down and goes up in cycles.

Re this thread.

N O B O D Y . . . K N O W S what is happening right now and NO-ONE can make ANY predictions - they can only GUESS!!!!.

Everyone (or most, anyway) WANT to hear that 'all is forgiven' and we can now carry on as before.

Then others take a distorted pleasure in seeing the market downturn (probably because they can't buy right now, anyway).

But be assured the odds for either wouldn't be very high at the bookies.

It's a lot easier to predict the weather and THEY are very often wrong.