Recovery of the Housing Market will come Quickly

Dithering_Dad

!!!!!!? wrote: »

However, even if the crunch eases soon, recession will take over to drive the housing market down.

Keep praying for that recession !!!!!!? :rolleyes:

I'm assuming you have a nice safe job within the NHS or local government?

stonethrower

Here is what a another couple of so called experts say goes against what is been said above.
My personal feeling prices have a long way to drop. Part of me wants this to happen as I can get back on the property market, but the other part wants it to stop falling as I work in the construction industry and god only knows how long my job will last if the prices keep on falling.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/aug/17/housingmarket.property1

WTF?_2

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Keep praying for that recession !!!!!!? :rolleyes:

I'm assuming you have a nice safe job within the NHS or local government?

What on earth makes you think that I'm 'praying for recession'?

Get it into your head, talking about the likelihood of something happening doesn't equal wanting it to happen. :rolleyes:

baby_boomer

pickledpink wrote: »

'Normally a self-correction in the housing market feels like an elastoplast being peeled off very slowly. What we've seen over the last 12 months is a quick, sharp rip.

'That should mean recovery comes more quickly than it has in past slowdowns.'

What a total non-sequitor :rotfl:

The pace it falls is unrelated to the speed of recovery.

The key factor in the snail like pace of most housing market recoveries is that neither potential homeowners nor landlords feel like gearing up on property while they still think they might suffer capital losses.

That said, the pace of recovery might come more quickly in the past because any firm news of it will no doubt be picked up and confirmed on the internet, building confidence, and also the alternatives for retirement investing continue to look shaky so buy-to-letters will be waiting to enter the market as well as FTBs.

Generali

baby_boomer wrote: »

What a total non-sequitor :rotfl:

The pace it falls is unrelated to the speed of recovery.

The key factor in the snail like pace of most housing market recoveries is that neither potential homeowners nor landlords feel like gearing up on property while they still think they might suffer capital losses.

If you borrowed to buy a BTL (or any other investment) then the losses mount pretty fast.

To take an example of a £125k house with £3k of buying and furnishing costs that has fallen in value by 10%:

15% deposit = £21,750 outlay. Equity is now £6250 = 71% loss
50% deposit = £65,500 outlay. Equity is now £50,000 = 24% loss
Cash paid = £128,000 outlay. Equity is now £112,500 = 12% loss

Of course if you've bought a place on a 15% that has fallen 50% in value (as some provincial newly built flats apparently have) you're really stuffed! On the above house, that would be a 531% loss!!!! Thankfully not too many people have done that I think but those that have will be really hurting.

Dithering_Dad

!!!!!!? wrote: »

What on earth makes you think that I'm 'praying for recession'?

Get it into your head, talking about the likelihood of something happening doesn't equal wanting it to happen. :rolleyes:

You seem to talk about nothing else and there is a certain sense of glee or at the very least "I told you so" evident in your posts. It's hardly surprising that I then wonder why you're looking forward to a recession.

Get it into your head that nearly everyone loses in a recession, including people who are hoping to buy a cheaper house. No job, no mortgage, no house. Houses could drop down to 1990 levels but if individuals are concerned about losing their job (or have already), then however big a bargain, people will still be unable to buy.

WTF?_2

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

You seem to talk about nothing else and there is a certain sense of glee or at the very least "I told you so" evident in your posts. It's hardly surprising that I then wonder why you're looking forward to a recession.

Get it into your head that nearly everyone loses in a recession, including people who rent.

So, in other words you just imagine that I am 'praying for a recession' based on your own prejudiced view.

No surprises there then.

Dithering_Dad

brit1234 wrote: »

I seem to be reliving the same threads on other sections of this site.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1099757

I seem to be reliving the Groundhog day joke, it was amusing when it was first used (by someone else), but has lost it's shine somewhat in the repeating.

Dithering_Dad

!!!!!!? wrote: »

So, in other words you just imagine that I am 'praying for a recession' based on your own prejudiced view.

No surprises there then.

It's well knows that you're desperate to buy your own home !!!!!!?, nothign wrong with that at all. However, I have noticed a pattern on your posts, if some says anything positive about house prices or the economy, you quickly rush in with a negative to try and keep your dream alive (in your eyes at least). Your comment I quoted on below, is a point in fact.

"However, even if the crunch eases soon, recession will take over to drive the housing market down."

You seem to grasp at any bit of news that will drive down house prices to a range you can afford it. This is why I think you're desperate for a recession, because as you quite rightly say, the credit crunch could ease soon. Without a recession, the increased availability of credit will allow people to start buying again (especially FTBs) in order to pick up a much cheaper property post credit crunch. You need a recession !!!!!!? to keep your house buyign dream alive, hence your various comments on this board and constant posting of economic bad news.

You claim you're interested in financial subjects per sey, but if you were you'd discuss a balanced picture of news, including good news. Instead you read and report only what will further your house buying ambitions and disregard or ridicule the rest. Not every bit of good news is made up by baised mortgage lenders, etc.

If I'm wrong then I apologise.

WTF?_2

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

It's well knows that you're desperate to buy your own home !!!!!!?, nothign wrong with that at all. However, I have noticed a pattern on your posts, if some says anything positive about house prices or the economy, you quickly rush in with a negative to try and keep your dream alive (in your eyes at least). Your comment I quoted on below, is a point in fact.

"However, even if the crunch eases soon, recession will take over to drive the housing market down."

First - I could buy a decent house today with a mortgage considerably less than the average one.

I'm not going to because prices are in general obscenely overvalued and due for some considerable (further than the existing 10% off peak) falls. I'm not into burning my money - what a bizarre concept for someone posting on MSE, eh? :rolleyes:

Second - it's an observation on my part that the recession will take over even if the credit crunch should ease off. If you don't think that will be the case, by all means disagree and state your point.


What a pity that I can't make a plain observation of fact without you bizarrely needing to ascribe some sort of desire on my behalf for it to happen.

But I guess if you stuck to debating the facts here, you wouldn't be indulging in the sort of behaviour which really seems to float your boat. Namely trolling for trouble and picking arguments with other posters. You've done it with a number of people in this forum and done it on other MSE subforums too so it's a pattern of behaviour.


I'm fed up with coming here for some discussion and having a 'character' like you making snipes and dragging the whole experience down with an attempt to make things personal. Go address whatever issues there are in your real life that leave you looking for anonymous on-line aggression with strangers and this place will be better for you and for everyone else.