Denial to Acceptance on MSE

WTF?_2

Woby_Tide wrote: »

I didn't put any date on it at all.

That said the first "HOUSE PRICES ARE CRASHING THREAD" was in 2004, so maybe it is time to start the "HOUSE PRICES ARE RISING THREAD" now. It'll be right one day just like the crash thread

Take a look at the 'House Price Crash discussion thread"

It was created on 20-10-2007 because the rash of MSE threads in the previous few weeks warning of an impending crash had upset many of the bullish posters on the Forum.

When did prices peak, according to records? Aug/Sep 2007.

If you can time your "House Price recovery thread" as well as that, I'll be impressed :rotfl:

dopester

Conrad wrote: »

Lets not forget most people prefer thier own bricks and mortar over pensions as a wealth store, so as soon as rates take a small drop people will return once again to march with the property pied piper. The masses on the whole dont see any alternative place to store wealth apart from relatively small ISA allowance contributions.

I have the advantage in my business role of being able to converse with experienced property investors, and the general consensus is to buy now, and not allow such a rare gift to pass by. The opportunity to take advantage of desperate sellers only comes along once every 15 years or so.

Rare gift. What a plonker. :rotfl:

Of course people have thought of property as pensions. They have had good reason to assume that supply is limited (which is it to a degree), that demand is strong (which it has been, but funded by a debt based economy)... and most importantly.. that prices always go up.

Prices have been pushed up 300% in 12 years. A spit of time. It is my view it is a delusion to think it is permanent new reality. Money invested in property is in a way "dead money".

It brings only temporary boom to an economy, selling property to one another for ever more money. A limit gets reach what the lending levels can be supported, and it went well beyond that with exotic financial vehicles.

Anyone who has their "imagined wealth" locked in property, which is illiquid wealth, can only make it liquid wealth if they find someone who has the funds to buy.

Not many people have the full amount for an asking price in their savings account, and so it depends on what debt/mortgages the system will support and lend them.

Creditors react to rising losses by curtailing lending, imposing higher qualifications on borrowers, and raising the rates on lending. Just what we have seen already.

Things will get worse. All your people who are depending on their property for retirement security will be already worried and more and more will be trying to sell, pushing prices down further. Except money is much tighter. Affordability requires the ability to pay, and the banks ability to lend looks to get worse not better.

Banks need £40 Billion a year to support their existing commitments, nevermind lend to FTBs > who can no longer get 100% mortgages, who now require big deposits > who find even if they could get a mortgage it is no cheap teaser deal like before when people could roll them over to another teaser deal > money is a lot more expensive to borrow.

Added to which employment prospects are worse and many are walking around wondering if they are next in line for the chop. Money in the economy is scarcer and becoming more valuable.

And it's not possible to prop up the market with Treasury/BoE lending so FTBs can still get back in, as it creates an even worse artificial market.

And "desperate sellers" aren't the full story. Even the people who just sit still, who don't sell, will find their homes/property crash in price. Prices don't just remain static because you choose not to sell. They fall in the crash. And when prices crash, they usually remain low for a very long time.

tomstickland

It's gone from being a highly enjoyable combat zone to a boring big love in.
I still like it though.

mewbie_2

tomstickland wrote: »

It's gone from being a highly enjoyable combat zone to a boring big love in.
I still like it though.

MSE 2009 thread will go something like this...
"They're still dropping"
"Oh you're so right"
"I concur"
"Me too"
"Houses will never drop" (there may still be the odd harmless nutter)
"I agree with the OP"
"Let's talk about Bean recipes or BMI index instead"
"Oooh, yes let's"

mean_momma

Conrad wrote: »

.

I have the advantage of being able to converse with experienced property investors.....such a rare gift ...... The opportunity to take advantage of desperate sellers only comes along once every 15 years or so.

This might be absolutely logical, but it sounds appalling to me, in the current climate.

meester

Conrad wrote: »

Lets not forget most people prefer thier own bricks and mortar over pensions as a wealth store, so as soon as rates take a small drop people will return once again to march with the property pied piper. The masses on the whole dont see any alternative place to store wealth apart from relatively small ISA allowance contributions.

I have the advantage in my business role of being able to converse with experienced property investors, and the general consensus is to buy now, and not allow such a rare gift to pass by. The opportunity to take advantage of desperate sellers only comes along once every 15 years or so.

Hmm, my parents bought their large 4-bed bungalow in North Yorkshire for £180,000 in 1992 and sold it for £225,000 in 2001.

That's 10 years where prices fell in real terms year-on-year, hardly a rare opportunity!

By 2007 of course, the same house would cost you £450-£500k.

Historical trends show LONG periods of stagnation/real price falls following the crash.

phil_b_2

It's one way traffic now it seems, and very boring indeed.

mr.broderick

mizzbiz wrote: »

Something has struck me of late whilst reading these forums as I usually do. When I started posting again a few months back, the general atmosphere on this forum in particular was quite frosty. You couldn't even imply that house prices may be on the way down without someone shouting you out. In some cases, some of the threads on here were open warfare, with abuse and insults being hurled from both 'sides'.

Where has all the aggro gone? Are we seeing the workings of the kubler ross model on MSE? Anger and denial has been superceeded by acceptance! :eek:

Even Mr Broderick and Pickles have taken time out to calculate their total negative equity (:p) and have been less frequent on here. Indeed, if my memory serves me correctly, Pickles actually started a thread on the declining market.

Just an observation. MSE has gone back from edge and has become a debate and discussion forum again. Okay, there is still some sniping at unfortunates in the press and some on here that have landed themselves in the doodoo, but then, i'm the first to have a go when there is so much information available these days.

I was flicking through all the threads on this and our sister board this afternoon. There is a worryingly lack of news about prices dropping at the moment. We have to be careful the media has to constantly report on this and to drill home that now is not a good time to buy, we are a very stange nation and perceive no news to be good news. I fear prices are going to rise very soon and i will still be here (some may like that some may not) to say ....."I told you so"

mewbie_2

Sheesh. If we have to wait till the last bull turns bear in order to start buying we are going to be here a very long time.

mr.broderick

carolt wrote: »

I'd love to agree with the OP that there is far less sniping on here than there used to be - to some degree I do, in that there are few of the bulls left, and those there are, are generally well-mannered if bizarrely (to my mind at least!) optimistic, like I'veSeenTheLight - however my own personal experience of late has led me to feel that that is a slightly rosy view, with bulls being replaced by trolls.

Still, I very much hope you are right and we have seen the end of the bulls 'shouting you out' (with the exception of mr b and his seemingly limitless obsession with me :rolleyes:).

Carol i am obsessed with your rudeness, lack of tact and your general bad attitude to other members. Trust me it is nothing sexual.