House prices 'see first double-digit fall'

Dithering_Dad

Paul_N wrote: »

Alternatively the number of sellers to buyers has been increasing and now stands at 15 sellers for every buyer as opposed to the average of 7 sellers to every buyer:
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/HousePriceIndex23rdJune2008.pdf

So for those that can afford to buy, and can get finance, there is in fact more properties available.

Many of those sellers have had their properties up for a long time. In my area, houses seemed to stop selling a couple of years ago. People have the boards up still, but don;t seem to be reducing their prices. I guess they're thinking that if it goes at the original price then fine, it it doesn't then there is no harm keeping it up for sale.

Not to say you're wrong, I'm just speaking from the experience within my own peer group. Some of my friends who were thinking of moving are now steadfastly staying put and all it took was one of our mates to be put on an 'at risk' list. We all can afford to buy, we can all get finance, we can see some real bargains available, but we're all looking at the recession and thinking "It's not such a bargain if I lose my job and then lose the house!"

Even with houses being so much cheaper, the other costs - stamp duty, estate agents, solicitors, etc etc. are still the same and perhaps that money is better left in the 'Emergency fund'?

Paul_N_4

trulysaintly wrote: »

Aw, thanks.....

So the Panorama and Tonight weekly specials on the housing market don't have an impact on consumer confidence?

Or the daily 'Thousands can't get a Mortgage' headlines that keep Daily Mail readers in their self-imposed darkened room?

Bad news sells papers, prosperity doesn't.

THAT'S why confidence in the market is key.

If you read my post again I'm not denying the media have an impact. The media had a big part to play in talking up the market and they're having a big part to play in talking it down. My message is "deal with it".

trulysaintly

Paul_N wrote: »

Unless you're a mortgage broker

Completely agree with you. It amazes me people blame the press for falling prices and the lack of confidence. Perhaps the same people were saying the same thing when the press encouraged over-confidence in the market, or not!

Where in that paragraph did you lay the blame at the foot of the press? Perhaps I've read it wrongly?

I read it as that you can't see that the press have a strong influence, my later post was to highlight the scaremongering that only makes a problem worse.

To clarify, and this is something I should have included in the OP, is that the basis of the 5 year cycle I mentioned is linked to Mortgage Interest Rates.

The last time Standard Variable Rates were as high as 7% were around 5 years ago. Following this, we saw reduced interest rates, and the property boom of the last few years happened off the back of this.

I've been in the mortgage industry for 13 years, and there are many industry professionals who have been in it for double the time I have, and they are predicting BoE interest rates to fall to 3.5% next year.

Still, you don't have to believe me on this point if you wish.

sympatex

10 years ago the bank of england was made independant, i'll take a naieve approach here and say inflation is here to stay (oil, food, etc), the BOE is tasked to keep inflation at 2%, interest rates are used to tackle inflation by the BOE so i predict they will rise short/medium term. neck out they won't hit 3.5% next year.

Pobby

As I recall houses went from peak to peak from 1989 to 2007. bang on for an eighteen year cycle.

neverdespairgirl

trulysaintly wrote: »

The funniest thing is (in my own warped sense of humour) now is the ideal time to buy - because you have hit the nail on the head.

Most Property Cycles are 5 years or so. We have just been experiencing the downturn, and as you may have seen, 25% rises in property prices have been predicted come 2012.

Why do you think 5 years?

If you had bought the average house in 1990, it wouldn't have been worth the saem in relation to average wages until over 10 years later.

trulysaintly

Pobby wrote: »

As I recall houses went from peak to peak from 1989 to 2007. bang on for an eighteen year cycle.

But during that 18 year cycle you mention, there were peaks and troughs - 2001 - 2005 springs to mind...ooh look almost a 5 year cycle before things calmed down.

You can split hairs over the size of a cycle, the truth is we are coming back out of a trough now....oh and for Paul's benefit it's not just Jon Varley that is talking about that, Schroders are as well....

trulysaintly

For NDG....

To clarify, and this is something I should have included in the OP, is that the basis of the 5 year cycle I mentioned is linked to Mortgage Interest Rates.

The last time Standard Variable Rates were as high as 7% were around 5 years ago. Following this, we saw reduced interest rates, and the property boom of the last few years happened off the back of this.

I have never said every cycle is 5 years...

neverdespairgirl

trulysaintly wrote: »

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I've been in the mortgage industry for 13 years, and there are many industry professionals who have been in it for double the time I have, and they are predicting BoE interest rates to fall to 3.5% next year.

Still, you don't have to believe me on this point if you wish.

It could happen. But everything's up in the air.

Last month, when the B of E held interest rates, there was a 3 way split - most voted to hold, one to raise, one to drop. Even they don't know what they are going to do!

trulysaintly

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

It could happen. But everything's up in the air.

Last month, when the B of E held interest rates, there was a 3 way split - most voted to hold, one to raise, one to drop. Even they don't know what they are going to do!

Agreed...at the moment, it depends on who you believe - I don't think with our current economy we could afford to raise rates - it would kill consumer spending and we would plummet into a recession quicker than Alistair Darling can dye his eyebrows.....

TBH I think we won't see any movement on BoE rates until October, then it will be 0.25% if the records allow...

Let's not forget that BoE are working on Inflation being around 3.8%, which anyone who drives or manages to buy food knows is complete rubbish....

The fact that the BoE don't know what to do says it all - in common with the Chancellor and PM they are all dithering idiots.