House prices 'see first double-digit fall'

carolt

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/aug/07/house.prices.property1

"House prices fell by almost 11% in the 12 months to July, Halifax said today - thought to be the first double-digit drop since the lender began publishing a monthly survey in the mid-1980s.

The UK's largest mortgage lender said the average price of a home in the UK had fallen by almost £22,000 over the year, from £199,084 in July 2007 to £177,351 last month.

Prices have been falling since last August, when Halifax's house price index reached a peak of £199,600.

The past three months have all seen falls in excess of 1.5%, with July's 1.7% drop following a fall of 2.5% in May and 1.9% in June.

The 10.9% drop revealed by comparing the seasonally adjusted average price in July 2007 with that in the same month this year is bigger than the 8.8% year-on-year fall quoted by the lender.

Commentators at Capital Economics said it was the first time annual house price falls on the index had entered double digits since it was launched in 1984, and that the figures for the past three months showed prices had fallen at a rate of 20% a year.

....."


Fantastic news for all us FTB's who have been waiting patiently! :j



Sad for anyone who risked all at the peak, obviously, but then no-one 'made' them buy......

mr.broderick

carolt wrote: »

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/aug/07/house.prices.property1

"House prices fell by almost 11% in the 12 months to July, Halifax said today - thought to be the first double-digit drop since the lender began publishing a monthly survey in the mid-1980s.

The UK's largest mortgage lender said the average price of a home in the UK had fallen by almost £22,000 over the year, from £199,084 in July 2007 to £177,351 last month.

Prices have been falling since last August, when Halifax's house price index reached a peak of £199,600.

The past three months have all seen falls in excess of 1.5%, with July's 1.7% drop following a fall of 2.5% in May and 1.9% in June.

The 10.9% drop revealed by comparing the seasonally adjusted average price in July 2007 with that in the same month this year is bigger than the 8.8% year-on-year fall quoted by the lender.

Commentators at Capital Economics said it was the first time annual house price falls on the index had entered double digits since it was launched in 1984, and that the figures for the past three months showed prices had fallen at a rate of 20% a year.

....."


Fantastic news for all us FTB's who have been waiting patiently! :j



Sad for anyone who risked all at the peak, obviously, but then no-one 'made' them buy......

No it is just that they could afford to unlike you, but hey i've always said teachers were under paid.

spark1

Only problem is houses near me are just being withdrawn from the market, sellers who dont need to sell wont drop their prices

mr.broderick

spark1 wrote: »

Only problem is houses near me are just being withdrawn from the market, sellers who dont need to sell wont drop their prices

If they did but were wanting to move up the ladder they would have to rely on the next house up the rung doing the same.

mr.broderick

Also the reason str'ers and ftb'ers are getting tetchy, sellers not reducing just pulling off (oh er), stuck in rented for longer than hoped...

brit1234

spark1 wrote: »

Only problem is houses near me are just being withdrawn from the market, sellers who dont need to sell wont drop their prices

They will eventually. They just have to realise how long this downturn will last, its not a short term blip and its only just got started.

People also have to realise that the more property comes down it makes it cheaper for people to move to bigger houses.

So in reality property falls are good for most.

mr.broderick

brit1234 wrote: »

They will eventually. They just have to realise how long this downturn will last, its not a short term blip and its only just got started.

People also have to realise that the more property comes down it makes it cheaper for people to move to bigger houses.

So in reality property falls are good for most.[/quote

Must admit i would welcome it.
People are that mortgaged up to the eyeballs though they won't.

carolt

Sellers clearly are reducing, that's why we are seeing falls. But not that many, which is why we are also seeing very reduced volumes.

Luckily, this is balanced out by a massive drop in demand as buyers can't/won't buy until the credit is resolved and/or prices fall further.

So it may take time, but it WILL happen. Obviously, some people will decide not to sell after all, but to stay where they are, and good luck to them. Others will decide that it makes an ideal opportunity to move up the ladder. Others, sadly, will be in no position to choose, as they will have to sell asap to avoid repossession, pay off debts etc. Others, even more sadly, will have their house repossessed and sold for them.

From my point of view, it's great news, obviously, but appreciate it's not for everyone.

mr.broderick

carolt wrote: »

Sellers clearly are reducing, that's why we are seeing falls. But not that many, which is why we are also seeing very reduced volumes.

Luckily, this is balanced out by a massive drop in demand as buyers can't/won't buy until the credit is resolved and/or prices fall further.

So it may take time, but it WILL happen. Obviously, some people will decide not to sell after all, but to stay where they are, and good luck to them. Others will decide that it makes an ideal opportunity to move up the ladder. Others, sadly, will be in no position to choose, as they will have to sell asap to avoid repossession, pay off debts etc. Others, even more sadly, will have their house repossessed and sold for them.

From my point of view, it's great news, obviously, but appreciate it's not for everyone.

That's a very balanced post carol, you been on the prozac?;)

LittleMissAspie

That reminds me, we haven't seen any QoQ figures around recently. If I've worked this out correctly, the current Halifax QoQ is -6.18% which is -22.5% annualised.

HammersFan

carolt wrote: »

Sellers clearly are reducing, that's why we are seeing falls. But not that many, which is why we are also seeing very reduced volumes.

Luckily, this is balanced out by a massive drop in demand as buyers can't/won't buy until the credit is resolved and/or prices fall further.

So it may take time, but it WILL happen. Obviously, some people will decide not to sell after all, but to stay where they are, and good luck to them. Others will decide that it makes an ideal opportunity to move up the ladder. Others, sadly, will be in no position to choose, as they will have to sell asap to avoid repossession, pay off debts etc. Others, even more sadly, will have their house repossessed and sold for them.

From my point of view, it's great news, obviously, but appreciate it's not for everyone.

And it is possible that lower interest rates are on the way very soon to head off a recession. I would not be suprised to see the base rate around 3.5% next year.

Have you considered that the falls from the Halifax and Nationwide are based on such low volumes - that they reflect very motivated sellers selling to people in strong positions (e.g. someone with not a great house selling to someone who is driving a hard bargain, and ready to 'walk away'). As you know I think Land Registry data at the end of the year will be telling, and may well paint a very different picture.

How can you say it "WILL happen"? There are no certainties. I also don't really get your original comment about people who bought at the peak - they are most likley happy enough where they are, still in work, earning more than last year, on a decent fixed rate deal for another year or two at least - the price of the house is pretty much irrelavant to them...the key issue is forced sellers, and there just aren't enough of them to make loads of nice cheap property available.