House Prices Will Boom - Daily Express still in Denial or Stupid

brit1234

adr0ck wrote: »

more info here

http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/business_money/property+prices+may+boom+by+2010/2377982

does this mean channel4 are also doing mad property ramping to get more viewers for location location location?

If you read the channel 4 article, Express or Mail you will see the same source ie Centre for Economic and Business Research.

Sorry but you can come up with any figure you want if you exclude realities about affordability and access to credit however it makes your report deeply flawed and highly likely to come true.

Read behind the headlines rather than take them on face value. Don't allow them to feed this dross to you with out a little analysis by yourselfs.

confused31_2

To be honest not a lot of people have lowered their prices by me, but a few developments round the area have stopped.

I personally dont think its the house prices that have slowed the market down, i think its the way the banks are not lending without big deposits, this just secures the bank from loosing money as obviously over the last few years thay have learnt the hard way.

By me theres no first time buyers and all the young around the area are renting, until they can get a mortgage without a large deposit, when or if that time comes back we will have to see.

As i said earlier the populations getting bigger about 350,000 people a year so it doesnt take a rocket scientist to work out that if no houses are built in the next 3 years there is going to be a shortage, and this should drive the prices up.

confused

formulaonefan

confused,
I agree with you, there will be property shortage if they don't build new homes but at the same time, banks should lend you money to buy property. If they don't then you can't. Cheap credits are now history. Things will get steady rather then rapid increase. 3-4% a year from 2011 is most likely. Not 25%

Guy_Montag

confused31 wrote: »

To be honest not a lot of people have lowered their prices by me, but a few developments round the area have stopped.

I personally dont think its the house prices that have slowed the market down, i think its the way the banks are not lending without big deposits, this just secures the bank from loosing money as obviously over the last few years thay have learnt the hard way.

By me theres no first time buyers and all the young around the area are renting, until they can get a mortgage without a large deposit, when or if that time comes back we will have to see.

As i said earlier the populations getting bigger about 350,000 people a year so it doesnt take a rocket scientist to work out that if no houses are built in the next 3 years there is going to be a shortage, and this should drive the prices up.

confused

There's been an increase in population by 350k a year during an decade of economic boom - that's hardly surprising. What happens during the bust? Immigrants go where the work is, emigrants will join them & we go back to much smaller net increase or even a decrease for a few years.

Mean time banks go back to traditional lending standards, it's not the credit crunch that's different, it's the last few years when mortgages were bundled up & sold to idiots that was the different part. We'll not see 100% mortgages for a generation now, people will just have to save deposits, &, if houses are so expensive that it's very difficult to save for one, well they can drop as people save until there is something of an equilibrium between what can be saved & what needs to be saved.

ad44downey

confused31 wrote: »

but as soon as cheap lending comes back

Those days are gone for good my friend. They ain't ever coming back.

Jonesya

ad44downey wrote: »

Those days are gone for good my friend. They ain't ever coming back.

I think those days will return (unfortunately) but only when enough time has passed so that those making the lending decisions have either forgotten the consequences or are young enough that they weren't around the last time it happened.

Austin_Allegro

confused31 wrote: »

obviously everyone has stopped buying as they can not afford to get on the housing ladder has they have been priced out with mortgages and there are no first time buyers out there.

Builders have stopped building and they have cancelled all new builds has no one can afford them.

Now anyone can work out that when the banks lower the rates and make it easier for first time buyers to get mortgages, the buyers will come back, so its obvious house prices will go back up, but whether thats in 2010 we will have to wait and see.

Having said that the population in the uk is growing each year infact in 2006 it grew by 350,000 people, so if they do stop building in 2010 we should have over 1 million more people to house.

So in theory they could be right because most people have stopped looking for houses, due to high interest rates on mortgages and the high prices of houses, but as soon as cheap lending comes back and the houses bottom out there should be a rush as theres going to be another 1 million people to house, and no new builds has all builders have stopped building.

confused

The UK population won't necessarily rise that much, because if the economy slows there will be less impetus for immigration and more impetus for migration, both of current immigrants and British nationals.

Even if the population does rise significantly, there are a lot of properties currently lying empty (city centre apartments for example) that will probably be sold cheaply to HAs and councils to house people, and strapped-for-cash homeowners will have to start selling off their holiday homes and renting out spare rooms, all of which will lead to an increase in supply.

So the argument that a slowdown in building will lead to a housing shortage (and by implication, another boom) doesn't hold water IMO.

I also doubt if cheap lending (on the scale of the last few years) will come back anytime soon, especially since so many banks have been burned by exposure to collateralised debt obligations, which were the primary force behind loose lending.

ultra10

Austin_Allegro wrote: »

The UK population won't necessarily rise that much, because if the economy slows there will be less impetus for immigration and more impetus for migration, both of current immigrants and British nationals.

Even if the population does rise significantly, there are a lot of properties currently lying empty (city centre apartments for example) that will probably be sold cheaply to HAs and councils to house people, and strapped-for-cash homeowners will have to start selling off their holiday homes and renting out spare rooms, all of which will lead to an increase in supply.

So the argument that a slowdown in building will lead to a housing shortage (and by implication, another boom) doesn't hold water IMO.

I also doubt if cheap lending (on the scale of the last few years) will come back anytime soon, especially since so many banks have been burned by exposure to collateralised debt obligations, which were the primary force behind loose lending.

I concur ...the Era of Cheap credit that has fueled both the Economy and the Housing Bubble is over & I cant see it EVER returning to the crazy levels of the last few years...not when we have seen a Major Bank go bust and another pulled back from the brink ...

brit1234

Jonesya wrote: »

I think those days will return (unfortunately) but only when enough time has passed so that those making the lending decisions have either forgotten the consequences or are young enough that they weren't around the last time it happened.

That will be a decade or far more away as demonstrated by the typical 18-20 year housing cycle.

phil_b_2

Who knows in this crazy country... it wouldn't surprise me if houses did indeed dramatically recover, leaving many round here with a heap of egg on their faces. Stranger things have happened.