Breaking News: House Price Crash Over!!!!!

amcluesent

Housing slump will end by 2010, says report

National Housing Federation (NHF) study predicts that house prices in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years.

neverdespairgirl

That report says:

Average house prices in England are set to rise by 25% by 2013, a National Housing Federation report says.
It sees prices falling 4.4% in 2008, 2.1% lower in 2009, recovering by 2010 and rising at over 9% in 2012 and 2013.

House price are already down more than 6%, so the 4% this year looks odd, to say the least!

ginvzt

I think it is the government's way to combat the problems... If we will start beliveing that prices will be 25% up in 5 years, we of course are going to buy now - while they are low, aren't we?...
Who is first in the queue????

dannyboycey

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kingkano

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

That report says:

Average house prices in England are set to rise by 25% by 2013, a National Housing Federation report says.
It sees prices falling 4.4% in 2008, 2.1% lower in 2009, recovering by 2010 and rising at over 9% in 2012 and 2013.

House price are already down more than 6%, so the 4% this year looks odd, to say the least!

Oh no.... you haven't fallen into the trap of thinking 'house prices only ever go down' have you?? :rotfl:

It's quite a bizarre article indeed. Are independent economists Oxford Economics known for their predictions??

At a guess I'd say the main reason for the report and predictions is more to do with them wanting money than anything else

Federation, which represents England’s housing associations, says its report shows that despite some calls to the contrary it is critical that the Government continues to invest in new social housing – as one in every thirteen households is now registered as being in need of an affordable home.

bluejake

For house prices to rise by 25% banks would have to go back to and exceed the irresponsible lending policies which have seen many of them go closer to ceasing to exist as going concerns than is comfortable

AND

The governments into whose lap this problems falls and who are presently, unprecedented in history, bailing out the Fanny Maes and Northern Rocks and the rest, allow the banks to carry on without regulation.

I do not think we are going to see 6 x salary 125% mortgages self certification lies for a long time.

Therefore, where is the money going to come from to fuel this house price inflation?

martinman3

lynzpower wrote: »

cant believe I missed those free sunglasses in the express _pale_

Were they rose-tinted ?

ultra10

Dont forget these are the same Bullish "Experts" who suggested prices would "Level off" or any Correction would be a short one .... such thinking by these same "Experts" created Northern Wreck & almost sent another Bank to the Wall .... House prices may well Bottom out in two years...they may not..but this idea that once they do all will be well & they will begin to skyrocket again is pure Fantasy... I doubt we will ever see the crazy Multiples of last year again in my lifetime.... I wonder sometimes if these so called "Experts" are there for a bit of free publicity or to make a name for themselves..any number of reasons really .... But IMHO this report is a load of BullSxxt ..

MrDT

Daily Express. :rotfl:

'National Housing Federation', vested interest much?

brit1234

Here is the actual report. On the last page it says "House prices in England could rise by 25%".

On the same page it says "repossessions are expected to hit 45,000 this year".:rotfl:

http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/HomeTruths/home_truths_2008.pdf

I have been through the report and found the source for the 25% rise is Oxford Economics.

http://www.oef.com/OE_Main.asp

Product Market Forecasting

Our forecasts of the global economy at a macro and sector level provide an ideal framework for developing forecasts and scenarios for particular product markets.
Oxford Economics provides detailed forecasts for a wide range of markets, including tourism, pharmaceuticals, shipping, machine tools, forklift trucks, alcoholic beverages, newspaper advertising and IT. Such projects typically involve the following steps:

• Identifying the key macroeconomic and industrial sector drivers for a particular product market
• Using statistical techniques to quantify the relationships between those drivers and the relevant product market metrics (e.g. sales, profits, investment), taking into account any leads/lags and tipping points
• Building those relationships into a model that links to the drivers from our Global Macro and Sectoral Models
• Developing a detailed forecast and a set of scenarios that illustrate the implications of key risks that could impact on the market

Our analysis often extends further - for example, identifying the key drivers of a company's market share or assessing the impact that its advertising programme is having on its sales performance. Moreover, such models can be used to advise on pricing policy and for setting targets for sales teams, as well as informing production and investment planning.

Now this seems to be the model they are using to predict the 25% rise. They seem to be treating housing as simply a commodity. There range of expertise seems to only cover these simple goods, they don't seem to produce reports on housing or banks.

Without understanding or looking at the banking issue their report is fundamentally flawed. People can only afford what the banks will lend them and it has been clearly recognised that the cheap days of credit are over.

This report is purely based on supply and demand. It does not take into count the risk factors self cert mortgages (liar loans), gift aid with land registry fiddling, interest only mortgages, vulnerable buy to let sector, higher interest rates, rissing food & fuel costs and the biggy looming Recession.

I say there narrow issued report is tripe.:mad: