Torygraph: House slide worst since Great Depression,

Trollfever

And a key factor is the unprecedented levels of personal debt.

carolt

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Another day, another headline of doom.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/11/cnhousing111.xml

Britain is now in the midst of the worst housing slide since the Great Depression, economists declared after house price inflation dropped to the lowest level since comparable records began.
..

House prices have never fallen by more than 10pc over a year in recorded history, except in 1931, when Britain left the gold standard.

David Owen of Dresdner Kleinwort said: "Back then, sterling had been ejected from the gold standard and the currency collapsed, and, although this helped exports, house prices collapsed. What we are seeing now has some parallels with then.

"However, it is a very unreal situation because this is happening without there being a major recession, and we haven't seen distressed selling, nor a significant increase, yet, in unemployment."

and some graphs for the enthusiasts...

Beat me to it!

Well, I was going to post this actually:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article4312879.ece

especially this (relevant) quote:

Economists gave warning that there was worse to come. Yesterday Howard Archer, of Global Insight, the economic consultancy, changed his forecast for house price falls this year to 15 per cent, up from 12 per cent, with a further 12 per cent fall next year. Michael Saunders, of Citigroup, the investment bank, said: “It is fair to say that we are now in the worst housing slide for more than 50 years.”


But yours is better.

dannyboycey

Trollfever wrote: »

And a key factor is the unprecedented levels of personal debt.

Yet the 'experts' still tell us "don't worry, interest rates are nothing like they were in the early 90's" ...........no, but effectively, the scale of borrowing makes them worse now, comparitivly!!

posh*spice

Why are there 2 different YOY figures being reported - 6.1% and 8.7% Sorry, I haven't looked at the Halifax report myself

Dithering_Dad

elona wrote: »

DD

I knew it all along as well so can I be famous too?;)

One day we'll all be famous, Rodney.

What's funny is that when you pull up these self-proclaimed 'experts', MSE super egos, Shadenfreuds and gloaters, all they can come back with is "Oh, dear did someone buy at the peak?".

As I said all along (;)), not everyone is a first time buyer who bought an apartment in the last 2 years with a +100% mortgage backed with zero savings and investments and a job in the building trade. Most of the people I know are seeing the next rung on the ladder come ever closer rather than worrying about the drop in their own house's equity.

p.s. I don't know where dannyboycey got "anger issues" from - I thought the post was rather amusing, especially the Daily Star headline. Still some people are so up themselves that they can't take a gentle dig at their egos.

Conrad

DITHERINGDAD

Yes some of us blokes in the street saw this comming, whilst the great and good wallowed in ignorance.

This isn't new. The Generals of WW1 thought they knew best and in thier ignorance sent men to to almost certain death unnecessarily.

DD, you didn't follow the heard to did you? Surely a Man with your intellect wouldn't follow bandwaggons?

carolt

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

One day we'll all be famous, Rodney.

What's funny is that when you pull up these self-proclaimed 'experts', MSE super egos, Shadenfreuds and gloaters, all they can come back with is "Oh, dear did someone buy at the peak?".

As I said all along (;)), not everyone is a first time buyer who bought an apartment in the last 2 years with a +100% mortgage backed with zero savings and investments and a job in the building trade. Most of the people I know are seeing the next rung on the ladder come ever closer rather than worrying about the drop in their own house's equity.

And provided they've not MEWed all the equity, they'll be fine, obviously. That said, approx 300 billion pounds has been MEWed since 2000 - that's roughly 5000 for every man, women and child in the UK. Given that not every man, woman and child own their own property, let alone have chosen to remove the equity if they do own, that leaves some individuals who have 'released' (ie spent) one hell of a lot of equity! Dithering Dad, do you really not know any of your acquaintances who seem to have been driving a somewhat flasher car than their job would suggest they ought to be able to afford? No-one who's had the odd luxury foreign holiday/new kitchen on money that one wouldn't have thought they could have 'earnt'? Really?

Of course, many if not the vast majority of those who bought years ago will be fine. But the fact that you don't know many people who bought recently doesn't mean they didn't do - until the market fell off a cliff late last year, FTB's were at record numbers. And you can't just talk away the high numbers who bought with 100% or even higher mortgages - they certainly existed. That's WHY Northern Rock picked up such huge market share in the year before it collapsed; and probably also partially why it's repossession rates are so high.

So whilst I absolutely agree that falling prices will present a great opportunity for the prudent homeowner, as well as the FTB, allowing them to move up the ladder, I think you underestimate the number of people who bought even some time ago who will be affected negatively by falling prices. Plus, obviously, (almost) all of those who bought recently.

Dithering_Dad

Conrad wrote: »

DITHERINGDAD

Yes some of us blokes in the street saw this comming, whilst the great and good wallowed in ignorance.

This isn't new. The Generals of WW1 thought they knew best and in thier ignorance sent men to to almost certain death unnecessarily.

DD, you didn't follow the heard to did you? Surely a Man with your intellect wouldn't follow bandwaggons?

I should imagine that you'd have to be blind not to see this coming. That's the point, the guru's might as well declare "I knew that night would follow day. I told you, but nobody would listen!!. Oh hold on, nobody would listen, because I'm a nobody. Ah."

Not sure what a heard is, but I certainly haven't followed one. I bought my little 2 bed bungalow in 1995 when I was single and then bought a 4 bed detached in 2001 when I was married and had a second kiddie on the way. Both houses were bought with a mortgage within the old 3 x annual earning principle and both were not the most expensive I could afford. I'm still in my second home now (we extended it as the kids grew and their toys took over). No bandwaggons here, unless by merely buying a house one is classed as a band waggoner?

Dithering_Dad

carolt wrote: »

Dithering Dad, do you really not know any of your acquaintances who seem to have been driving a somewhat flasher car than their job would suggest they ought to be able to afford? No-one who's had the odd luxury foreign holiday/new kitchen on money that one wouldn't have thought they could have 'earnt'? Really?

Hand on heart Carol, I can honestly say that within my circle of friends no one is living beyond their means. If anything we all seem to be living below our means. All of my pals have careers (Doctors, Lawyers, a Dentist, I.T. Professionals, Business Consultants) and I have a pretty good idea what each earns and they all seem to have modest homes and while they have new-ish cars they're VW Golfs rather than BMWs.

I guess that 'birds of a feather' really do flock together? I doubt that I'd be friends with someone who flaunts wealth, whether it's real wealth or assumed. So tacky really, don't you think?

carolt

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Hand on heart Carol, I can honestly say that within my circle of friends no one is living beyond their means. If anything we all seem to be living below our means. All of my pals have careers (Doctors, Lawyers, a Dentist, I.T. Professionals, Business Consultants) and I have a pretty good idea what each earns and they all seem to have modest homes and while they have new-ish cars they're VW Golfs rather than BMWs.

I guess that 'birds of a feather' really do flock together? I doubt that I'd be friends with someone who flaunts wealth, whether it's real wealth or assumed. So tacky really, don't you think?

Absolutely. You obviously mix with a nice crowd.

You want to be careful about some of those you might bump shoulders with on here, though.......