Torygraph: House slide worst since Great Depression,

WTF?_2

Another day, another headline of doom.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/11/cnhousing111.xml

Britain is now in the midst of the worst housing slide since the Great Depression, economists declared after house price inflation dropped to the lowest level since comparable records began.
..

House prices have never fallen by more than 10pc over a year in recorded history, except in 1931, when Britain left the gold standard.

David Owen of Dresdner Kleinwort said: "Back then, sterling had been ejected from the gold standard and the currency collapsed, and, although this helped exports, house prices collapsed. What we are seeing now has some parallels with then.

"However, it is a very unreal situation because this is happening without there being a major recession, and we haven't seen distressed selling, nor a significant increase, yet, in unemployment."

and some graphs for the enthusiasts...

dannyboycey

This is what I've been saying all along. 10% falls WITHOUT a recession or unemployment. I've been laughed at for saying house prices will go back to their pre-Blair prices, but just wait till we are officially in a recession, and mass job cuts spread beyond the construction sector. Unbelievably, there are people here talking down a crash, even denying it - yet never before in history have house prices plummeted as fast and as much as this outside of recession.

Things are going to get much worse, and houses will be the least of our worries. On that happy note.....;)

obsessed_saver

Did they just steal our idea with the graphs? :P

dannyboycey

There appear to be two 1984's on the bottom graph! .... and no 1996!

sympatex

I'm not to sure of my facts so go easy but could you also say "house prices rose at their quickest rates 1997-2007 so it's fair to assume without what drove them that high they will fall at their fastest rate" ?

Conrad

The crash is guaranteed.

Halve the number of mortgages being approved = halve the cash available to buy homes.

The same number of sellers chasing halve the cash.

Imagine this happened at a livestock auction. Thats halve the cash to be spread accross the same number of animals being sold. WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

As I've said all along, economists have not got a clue becuase they are rear mirror gazers. This crash has a unique character resulting from the money supply being chopped off by lenders.
Give it a few more months and they will all start telling us it was obvious all along.

I find academics generally are the most ill informed of us all. These plonkas are the reason we haven't found a solution to knife crime - they are too far removed from the real world to understand the lives of young kids today, just as economists are to far removed from the mortgage front line to recognise the true nature of the crash.

obsessed_saver

Conrad wrote: »

Imagine this happened at a livestock auction. Thats halve the cash to be spread accross the same number of animals being sold. WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

Well, a lot of people will say: "If the sellers aren't getting the price they want, then they won't sell. Simple as".

Let's wait for the recession to arrive. Then we'll see mayhem.

skap7309

Ive gotta say - things are looking TERRIBLE after reding that. A massive, massive house price crash is really looking very likely indeed.

Dithering_Dad

dannyboycey wrote: »

This is what I've been saying all along. 10% falls WITHOUT a recession or unemployment. I've been laughed at for saying house prices will go back to their pre-Blair prices, but just wait till we are officially in a recession, and mass job cuts spread beyond the construction sector. Unbelievably, there are people here talking down a crash, even denying it - yet never before in history have house prices plummeted as fast and as much as this outside of recession.

Things are going to get much worse, and houses will be the least of our worries. On that happy note.....;)

If only the world's economists had listened to you! Well, they're reaping the harvest from that mistake now. I'd imagine a rollsroyce will be sidling up to your front door soon, filled with a delegation from the World bank and G8. They'll beg and scrape for you to impart your financial advice and get them out of this mess.

I can see the headlines now:

"dannyboycey knew it all along" - The Times.

"Our future is safe in the hands of financial guru, dannyboycey" - The Telegraph.

"dannyboycey ate my hamster" - The Sun.

"Jordan has boob job" - The Daily Star.

dannyboycey

Dithering Dad.... you clearly have anger issues that need resolving. What's the matter? Bought at the peak?

elona

DD

I knew it all along as well so can I be famous too?;)