At what point will the Houseprice reversal stop?

dannyboycey

2000 or earlier!

mitchaa wrote: »

Some stupidly priced city ''apartments'' may fall 50% in value back to 2001 levels but its absoloutly absurd to generalise the whole housing market with this theory.

Many of these apartments have ALREADY dropped by over 60% in many areas.

m00m00

dannyboycey wrote: »

Many of these apartments have ALREADY dropped by over 60% in many areas.

these have generally been in areas that require Cerberus as a guard dog though.

dopester

2000 or earlier!

mitchaa wrote: »

Average house price will drop to around £150k before rising again, Mitchaa says so;) (So far dropped from £186k-£172k, well according to 1 individual lender anyway)

Some stupidly priced city ''apartments'' may fall 50% in value back to 2001 levels but its absoloutly absurd to generalise the whole housing market with this theory.

Wishful thinking based on that assumption you hold as absolute of the wage structure remaining as it currently is.

In fact from previous posts you've made you expect wages to rise - and if they don't you encourage people to leave their jobs and seek higher pay with a different employer !

That worked in the past, few will find it works as we get in to the next 24 months. Because we're actually got massive unemployment and a harsh economic slowdown is on the horizon. You're not going to get paid much more than your market worth from companies which can't afford to pay you more than your market worth.

I voted 2000 or earlier, as I expect 1996 house price levels, but wouldn't be surprised if we go in to 1970 house price levels.

mitchaa

2006

mizzbiz wrote: »

What do you mean by 'up on last year'? Sold for more than they were bought for this time last year, or just advertised for more on Rightmove?

Nope if you had read the report released by nationwide yesterday you will find there are still quite a few areas within the UK that are STILL showing positive YOY growth.

That to me means that those houses are worth more than what they were this time last year;) Not just in Scotland either, quite a few places south of the border aswell.

But yet we are in the middle of a crash are we not:rotfl:

As to your other points, how long do you wait? Say for example, you have a £200k max spend but your dream home is priced at £250k, you see it falling and falling and it now comes within your £200k price range, do you hold out for more drops or do you snap it up there and then? Risk leaving it to drop further and then it begins to rise again, or risk letting it drop further for someone else to take it for the the new price of £200k

See what im getting at. People do not know where the end of this supposed crash is going to be so people will still buy. In fact people are still buying, RIGHT NOW.

If prices get too cheap like many people on here think, then there are going to be a hell of a lot of BTL's flooding the market pretty soon

If you can borrow £200k just now and buy 1 house with it, whats stopping you in a few years time borrowing the same £200k and buying 2 or even 3 houses with it?

You wont get lent £200k in a few years time, i hear you say??? Well why not?? Where is the evidence of this? Has mortgage lending based on income multiples reduced so far in this supposed 'crash'? Nope, not at all, i can still borrow the exact same amount just now as i could have done this time last year, lending multiples and criteria have not been changed.

Think some of you guys are in for a huge shock, either that or you'll be waiting for something that aint never going to happen.

Housing will never become cheap, if it does everyone will have multiple homes.

Paul_N_4

mitchaa wrote: »

Nope if you had read the report released by nationwide yesterday you will find there are still quite a few areas within the UK that are STILL showing positive YOY growth.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/June_2008.pdf

Where?

mizzbiz

mitchaa wrote: »

Housing will never become cheap, if it does everyone will have multiple homes.

It was cheap ten years ago and not everyone had multiple homes.

The reason multiple homes became 'affordable' was because banks would throw money at anyone who cared to look in their window. I believe that will change, at least for the forseeable future.

It's fine to believe whatever you want. Statistics can be interpreted in many ways. What can't change are the everyday facts, like not being able to get a mortgage, like not being able to afford the multiple mortgages that bought you your seven homes, like not being able to put the heating on because it costs a day's wages for a couple of hours, like not being able to get a job in the next city because communting costs will be half your monthly salary.

I love statistics. I work with them every day. They mean nothing unless they are based on all the facts, not just a few subjective points.

mitchaa

2006

dopester wrote: »

Wishful thinking based on that assumption you hold as absolute of the wage structure remaining as it currently is.

In fact from previous posts you've made you expect wages to rise - and if they don't you encourage people to leave their jobs and seek higher pay with a different employer !

That worked in the past, few will find it works as we get in to the next 24 months. Because we're actually got massive unemployment and a harsh economic slowdown is on the horizon. You're not going to get paid much more than your market worth from companies which can't afford to pay you more than your market worth

That's right i do expect wages still to rise, i have just been awarded a 5+% inflation based pay rise just recently, even with a shaky uncertain economy and things at the moment in freefall (I have a union paydeal up until 2012, which guarantees x % amount per year. Next years already agreed award is RPI +1.5%)

So in certain areas, yes wages will rise. NHS/police/fire/ armed forces etc all get awarded inflationary increases. The fuel tanker drivers just recently, i know the O&G area is booming, im sure ive only just touched on a small % there.

There's no evidence just now of massive unemployment heading our way.

mizzbiz

mitchaa wrote: »

If you can borrow £200k just now and buy 1 house with it, whats stopping you in a few years time borrowing the same £200k and buying 2 or even 3 houses with it?

I would probably just buy one for 200k. And it would be substantially better than the overpriced chaff I could buy today for 200k.

narced

Average house prices will go back to the long term average of 3.5x average income. They still have a long way to go yet.

mitchaa

2006

Paul_N wrote: »

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/June_2008.pdf

Where?

try looking here..;)

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q2_2008.pdf

Cambridge
Canterbury
Oxford
Carlisle
Aberdeen

All areas of the country that are still showing +ve growth, there's more than that, thats just the top 5