At what point will the Houseprice reversal stop?

mystic_trev

I've not mentioned the C word as I know it upsets some people :rolleyes:

What I'm interested in is at what previous year you think prices will stop going down. Last year I was thinking prices might go back to late 2003, now I think it could be late 2001.

As I'm only putting years in, those will be for prices at December for each year.

jamescredmond

2003

2003 is my guess, but on past form I'm prob. wrong.

if my kids had their way it would be 1992!

sympatex

2004

i don't know how analysts come to the conclusion about x house cost this much in year x and is now worth the same in year x. With inflation and all the other gubbins. Rather crudely i can see houses which sold for 185,000 in Dec 2006 are in the same region again today. I seem to swing from positive that house prices will lift when/if lending criteria loosens to outright despair (i'm a FTB) that the lax lending policy of 1997-2007 will force banks to remain tight on lending (for the good of the country!) but this will cause a continual decline until lending and affordability are balanced. 3x salary etc.

sympatex

2004

2004 is my guess getting back on topic!

dannyboycey

2000 or earlier!

Optimistic poll.... 1997-1998

Lotus-eater

2002

I always thought about the 2001/2002 price range, can't see it going below that

Pobby

2001

2001/2002 for me. hey but that`s a lot.

dannyboycey

2000 or earlier!

We haven't officially entered a recession yet - if/when we do, the value of houses will take a really big hit - especially if it leads to a sharp rise in unemployment.

LittleMissAspie

2004

Well this is basically the same as saying what percentage will houses drop. I'm hoping for 30% from peak (and I see no reason why that wouldn't happen) so that would take us back to September 2003.

Edit: We are already back to November 2006 by the way.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national.php

mitchaa

2006

Here we go again:rolleyes:

2001 levels? What, for every single house in the UK or just a handful of overpriced £750k 1 bed London flats?

There are still a lot of places in the UK that are up on this time last year so they have a long way to go before getting anywhere near 2001 levels.

Think some of you guys are getting a bit too carried away with all this.

Average house price will drop to around £150k before rising again, Mitchaa says so;) (So far dropped from £186k-£172k, well according to 1 individual lender anyway)

Some stupidly priced city ''apartments'' may fall 50% in value back to 2001 levels but its absoloutly absurd to generalise the whole housing market with this theory.

My vote would/should be for mid 2004 levels. (I did vote 2006, but didn't have the nationwide average data to hand as posted above)

mizzbiz

mitchaa wrote: »

Here we go again:rolleyes:

There are still a lot of places in the UK that are up on this time last year so they have a long way to go before getting anywhere near 2001 levels.

What do you mean by 'up on last year'? Sold for more than they were bought for this time last year, or just advertised for more on Rightmove?

Nobody will want to buy if they have the feeling that by the end of the year they could be thousands down. You don't sacrafice things to save a deposit and not think twice about risking it on the 'house price roulette'.

They may be advertised for more, but people will pay less. This sets a 'street precedent', like in law, in which all those that come after must follow. If they don't, they won't sell. This is how prices will tumble, and the lack of available mortgages is a huge factor which won't go away any time soon. It's also down to how much deposit has to be handed over for a mortgage. 20% of £100000 is easier to come by than 20% of £200000. 20k is a lot of money to have lying around in cash or to save up, 40k way beyond the means of most people in their twenties/thirties (FTB's).

There are cottages in my home area that used to go for 30k. People are still trying to get 110k for them even today. If I was going to buy one, I would look at Net House Prices, see the crazy difference, then sit back and wait. No doubt about it.