Halifax figures Thursday - Chief Economist or Spin Merchant?

m00m00

ginvzt wrote: »

Can you post them on the same graph, for more impact?

not really due to the disparate sizes of the data set. also the 'new' data is missing the 'boom data' at the start of it compared to the old data.

chrisandanne

The 88 to 93 one doesn't look like a crash anymore does it !! more of a correction...the latest one, now that's a crash.
Thanks for the graphs mOOmOO. A x

adr0ck

if you want all the info (including quarters)

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/housingresearch.asp

nickmason

18 years ago, annualised HPI dropped from c30% to 0% in about 12 months - actually a steeper fall than we have seen so far. (To do that, some monthly falls clearly happened, just as in this crash we were still seeing +ve annualised rates as the graph fell off the cliff with -ve monthly drops.) However back in 1990 it then bottomed out, wobbled just under 0% for a couple of years, then averaged about -5% for another couple.

What we are seeing here is a fall from c10% to over -5% in less than a year, and no sign of it bottoming out. Stating the glaringly obvious, 12 months of drops of c2% per month cuts is going to do get very negative very quickly

harryhound

This time we have a global economy, wonderful global communications open to all (well nearly all) and an almost world wide bubble.
In Beijing bright young graduates (YUPPIES?) have been congratulating themselves on grotty little flats doubling in value from 40 to 80K (in GBP terms).

WTF?_2

chrisandanne wrote: »

The 88 to 93 one doesn't look like a crash anymore does it !! more of a correction...the latest one, now that's a crash.
Thanks for the graphs mOOmOO. A x

And it's only just beginning too, which is the scariest thing.

In fact it's happening so fast that people don't really seem to be comprehending it, hence asking prices being sticky.

Even better, saw an idiot estate agent from Belfast on the news this morning when they were doing a piece on the latest figures and their regional variations.

Prices have dropped something like 20% in a year in Northern Ireland and the property market is in tatters there but this guywas spinning like a dervish. According to him, they had come down so much that there was nowhere left to go but up :rotfl:

nickmason

A picture really is worth a thousand words

By the way, in order to mimic the bbc, this is using 3-month averages, and so the latest month's figures are under-represented.
Using a simple y-o-y change prices are already dropping quicker (-9%) than at any time before (-8.5% Sept 92).

WTF?_2

Thanks for the graph - interesting. That said, didn't the current housing market actually come off the 'rapidly rising' boil in late 2005 with a general lesser degree of price rises over 2006-2007?

Might be why the reversal of trend looks bigger in the last crash. We've seen bigger m-o-m drops but m-o-m growth had slowed a bit first, wheres the last market went from a rapid boom to rapid bust.

nickmason

Fair point, !!!!!!! - I was really just trying to illustrate the speed with which this one has crashed through the 0% annual rate. The rally mid05-mid07, rather than allowing (potentially) a soft landing, has built an enormous downward pressure.

obsessed_saver

Nice graphs, nickmason!