N Ireland house prices down 18.6%!

tara747

leftieM wrote: »

It would have been a risky strategy to buy near the top to sell on immediately. It takes at least 4 months from the beginning of the legal process to purchase to completing the subsequent 'flip'. I know some people made money this way but others are sitting with houses that are losing value, costing them hundreds a month and they can't shift them. Not a nice position to be in.
The problem with housing as an investment is that it is illiquid (although during the heady days of the boom it certainly didn't seem to be!)

Btw can we lay off the personal insults? Surely we can all make our points without having to resort to those tactics.

I agree with both your points.

Spoke to my colleague today, she is shocked to discover that her neighbour's house isn't under offer yet after his big discount a few days ago!!

:rotfl:

tara747

Just saw a few REDUCED signs in the local agent's window, gladdened my heart it did!



All anecdotes welcome, does anyone know of anyone trying to sell/regretting their purchase? I know a couple of people who bought right at the top, but reckon that anyone who bought after early 2006 is in trouble at this stage. There is nothing at all to indicate that this will be over quickly.

motorguy

tara747 wrote: »

I know a couple of people who bought right at the top, but reckon that anyone who bought after early 2006 is in trouble at this stage. There is nothing at all to indicate that this will be over quickly.

Why are they 'in trouble'? Surely only if they need to sell?

Our house has went up £150K since we bought it four years, then dropped back probably about £80K, so we're still comfortably in equity.

We would like to sell any time now as we've planning permission granted for a new house out in the country, but we're going to wait a while as there is simply nothing selling. We're in no big rush.

tara747

They're in trouble because when it comes to the end of their fixed rate (in 5 months' time in one case!) the bank will move them onto the SVR if they're in NE. I'm sure the increase in repayments, coupled with rising prices everywhere, will bring them a lot of problems! NE doesn't affect people only when selling, it can increase the cost of their mortgage too.

** Edit: If I may ask, what are you waiting for? I take it you expect prices to recover quite quickly?

leftieM

The one thing I can't figure is how much a house is worth any more. I suppose my 'gut instinct' (probably not worth a lot) is that, overall, prices will halve. I still remember a time when 250k for a house was a lot of money. We lost sight of the value of houses. We were smothered by this stupid credit-fuelled boom. I think that, in two years time, I'll be able to get a decent 1500 sq ft semi in south Belfast for 250k. That may be naive but it's just a hunch. To add, that would give someone who bought said semi in 2005 a 5-figure profit.

tara747

leftieM wrote: »

The one thing I can't figure is how much a house is worth any more. I suppose my 'gut instinct' (probably not worth a lot) is that, overall, prices will halve. I still remember a time when 250k for a house was a lot of money. We lost sight of the value of houses. We were smothered by this stupid credit-fuelled boom. I think that, in two years time, I'll be able to get a decent 1500 sq ft semi in south Belfast for 250k. That may be naive but it's just a hunch. To add, that would give someone who bought said semi in 2005 a 5-figure profit.

I would say that prices have a lot further to fall. It'll be a vicious circle which will be self-fulfilling. Supply keeps going up and demand is non-existent.

leftieM

It depends on what happens to the wider economy. Things are looking pretty grim at the moment. It seems that central government made a fundamental error dropping interest rates in 2005 when the housing market started to slow. House prices were, by IMF and OECD estimates, up to 40% overvalued in the UK at the time. I don't know how we compared with the rest of the UK but it certainly wasn't cheap here - probably on a par with the UK given our lower average earnings.
So the government took a decision to make lending cheaper, thus further inflating what was already a bubble. Now it seems that the pain will be felt all the more because of this short sighted and populist economic tactic. Blair knew the game was up. That's why he left.
For those in or about to be in negative equity - my brother is in NE having bought in Dublin three years ago. He's overpaying his mortgage to clear the deficit. A pragmatic and sensible move that I encourage anyone to adopt if they can so at least they have choices if they need or want to move.

tara747

leftieM wrote: »

It depends on what happens to the wider economy. Things are looking pretty grim at the moment. It seems that central government made a fundamental error dropping interest rates in 2005 when the housing market started to slow. House prices were, by IMF and OECD estimates, up to 40% overvalued in the UK at the time. I don't know how we compared with the rest of the UK but it certainly wasn't cheap here - probably on a par with the UK given our lower average earnings.
So the government took a decision to make lending cheaper, thus further inflating what was already a bubble. Now it seems that the pain will be felt all the more because of this short sighted and populist economic tactic. Blair knew the game was up. That's why he left.
For those in or about to be in negative equity - my brother is in NE having bought in Dublin three years ago. He's overpaying his mortgage to clear the deficit. A pragmatic and sensible move that I encourage anyone to adopt if they can so at least they have choices if they need or want to move.

Unfortunate for him. I'm sure there are a lot like him. At least he is taking positive action, as you say.

leftieM

tara747 wrote: »

Unfortunate for him. I'm sure there are a lot like him. At least he is taking positive action, as you say.

He likes where he lives and having his own place. However it's a one-bed apartment so unlikely to suit his needs if any woman manages to prise him away from the golf course for long enough to produce an heir!

Cee

Last year before we decided to remortgage we went to look at a house which was on the market for roughly £175,000 it wanted a new kitchen, possibly extended to take out some of the living room to make it larger and one of the bedroom ceiling was bowing with an extremely awful damp patch.

By the time we'd got round the place someone had put in a bid for £200k I rang back being a bit nosey to ask what the current ask was and it was £250k but they weren't asking for anyone else to view.

I noticed the place is back on the market now the only thing done to it was the cutting of the front edge, the original furniture is still sitting at the window.

Thats a huge loss as I can't see anyone wanting to buy it for the same original asking price and still have to spend that kind of money to bring it up to scratch. I'd have loved to live there too but can't afford it now