N Ireland house prices down 18.6%!

talksalot81

Sigur wrote: »

Except many financial institutions gave out loans and credit regardless of income or house value, because the financial institutions didn't need to worry about whether they had the ability to repay as they reneged on the risk by selling it on. Credit became so cheap and available anyone could take out multiple credit cards and loans without much questioning from their bank. The only difference is now this has all stopped, or banks have become much stricter, and people can't borrow more to pay a previous debt.

You haven't proven to me how highly paid doctors are "struggling". The members of my family in the medical field certainly aren't struggling and drive up any of the more expensive areas of Belfast and you won't find too many doctors or surgeons struggling. The members of my family within the medical field are mortgage free and are only in their mid-30s, many of their co-workers have multiple holiday homes.

You seem to have mixed cheap credit with house price inflation. Whilst they mix, they aren't relevant to the point you're trying to make.

Credit was not as freely available as you suggested. You did actually have to be able to make the repayments. At the height of the boom, it was simply impossible for an average couple (without existing housing equity) to purchase anything but the smallest and cheapest properties. Now you will likely say that everyone has to start somewhere, but what then of those less than average?

As for your experience of the medical community, well I suspect you missed my point about young people and the housing market. Those you refer to are in their mid thirties so have been working for a significant time and would have been unusual in their field had they not been well onto the property ladder by the time the boom occurred. My reference was to those who are younger and thus were starting from scratch. Basically the price of houses was rising faster than even these highly paid young people could save. The longer the trend continued, the further away they would have become from being able to afford. This of course being the highest paid, your average graduate simply would never have had a prayer had the trend continued. It should then be simple to see that you have disabled the young from buying property, so who will buy those FTB houses to allow those in the FTB houses to move into large.... etc.

As for the point I am trying to make - well in a nutshell, I am saying that the situation was unsustainable. To return the system to a sustainable state is good for our economic outlook. Any suggestion to the contrary seems stupid.

tara747

talksalot81 wrote: »

Credit was not as freely available as you suggested. You did actually have to be able to make the repayments. At the height of the boom, it was simply impossible for an average couple (without existing housing equity) to purchase anything but the smallest and cheapest properties. Now you will likely say that everyone has to start somewhere, but what then of those less than average?

As for your experience of the medical community, well I suspect you missed my point about young people and the housing market. Those you refer to are in their mid thirties so have been working for a significant time and would have been unusual in their field had they not been well onto the property ladder by the time the boom occurred. My reference was to those who are younger and thus were starting from scratch. Basically the price of houses was rising faster than even these highly paid young people could save. The longer the trend continued, the further away they would have become from being able to afford. This of course being the highest paid, your average graduate simply would never have had a prayer had the trend continued. It should then be simple to see that you have disabled the young from buying property, so who will buy those FTB houses to allow those in the FTB houses to move into large.... etc.

As for the point I am trying to make - well in a nutshell, I am saying that the situation was unsustainable. To return the system to a sustainable state is good for our economic outlook. Any suggestion to the contrary seems stupid.

Hear hear! It will be painful for the small number in NE for a few years, but the economy will emerge stronger. There really is no other solution.

To those who own houses, how much did you pay for them?

To those who think that a fall in prices is a bigger disaster than the alternative (perpetual HPI, young people never being able to afford to buy and those who do being enslaved to a mortgage 9x their income etc), why do you think this?

To everyone: why is an increase in house prices good and an increase in the price of anything else bad????

I am genuinely interested in your views.

jetboy

Talksalot, I didn't say house prices would have been sustainable but they wouldn't have fallen by 18% in the absence of the current economic turmoil. There is new territory ahead of us now. Oil it close to $150 a barrel today. If that price is sustained then house prices in NI will be the least of anybody's worries. Standby for widespread bankruptcies and high inflation.

talksalot81

jetboy wrote: »

Talksalot, I didn't say house prices would have been sustainable but they wouldn't have fallen by 18% in the absence of the current economic turmoil. There is new territory ahead of us now. Oil it close to $150 a barrel today. If that price is sustained then house prices in NI will be the least of anybody's worries. Standby for widespread bankruptcies and high inflation.

It is funny you say that, I cannot afford my own home but have more than enough income after rental outgoings and general living that oil related products could quadruple before I have any risk of not being able to afford to live.... yet many of those with homes would be bankrupt with a fraction of that increase....

jetboy

If oil quadruples there will be mass unemployment and sustained deep recession and interest rates that will have put thousands out of their homes. They have to live somewhere be it social housing or other. So the nation then rents. Demand for rental properties goes up hence and those fortunate enough to be landlords will pass on rate rises to their tenants within the allowable terms of their agreements.
You have always been a fan of renting on these forums. Each to their own. The UK is not geared towards long term rental in the way mainland Europe is. Perhaps it will be in future but it would take a very significant change in circumstances and attitudes to replicate the rental scenario portrayed in the likes of Germany where flats costs £35k but nobody buys them because the rental system is geared towards the tenant.
People who bought at the top of the market here have my sympathy. Nobody was predicting a downturn of this magnitude 6 months ago. I would hate to think anybody would gloat at the aspirations of the many who just wanted a foot on the housing ladder only to find themselves in negative equity.

talksalot81

jetboy wrote: »

Nobody was predicting a downturn of this magnitude 6 months ago. I would hate to think anybody would gloat at the aspirations of the many who just wanted a foot on the housing ladder only to find themselves in negative equity.

18 months ago I predicted it,as did many others. I provided data to show why I believed this and clearly showed that FTB properties had become unaffordable to FTBs. I am sorry but if one is given clear evidence but is unwilling to pay attention to it, then they do not deserve much sympathy. I cannot see my having got much sympathy if I was totally wrong and average house prices were presently at £350k as the previous trend would have been approaching, irrelevant of the fact that my view was logical and justified!

Sigur_2

talksalot81 wrote: »

18 months ago I predicted it,as did many others. I provided data to show why I believed this and clearly showed that FTB properties had become unaffordable to FTBs. I am sorry but if one is given clear evidence but is unwilling to pay attention to it, then they do not deserve much sympathy. I cannot see my having got much sympathy if I was totally wrong and average house prices were presently at £350k as the previous trend would have been approaching, irrelevant of the fact that my view was logical and justified!

Yes, yes. You're quite the "analyst". Most people would have just used "common sense" to realise the prices were unsustainable.

steveymp

Sigur wrote: »

Yes, yes. You're quite the "analyst". Most people would have just used "common sense" to realise the prices were unsustainable.

Thats twice in this thread you have been an ignorant Bar Steward :T :T :T quiet an acheivement :rolleyes:

You still owe hnisc an apology for laughing at their unlucky misfortune.

I suggest in future if you have nothing constructive to add, just say nothing.

Your signature "I’m the baddest of the bad. I’m the best that you’ve ever had. I’m the tops, I’m the king. I am the greatest man that ever lived. I was born to give!" tends to sum you up as the Muppet you seem to be;)

talksalot81

Sigur wrote: »

Yes, yes. You're quite the "analyst". Most people would have just used "common sense" to realise the prices were unsustainable.

Yes, but if you recall, common sense was not so common. The majority were disbelieving of what I said. I thus used numbers and examples in an attempt to prove my point. Unfortunately, the majority failed to appreciate the significance of these numbers and retained their view that 'unquantifable' factors would sustain the market.

Phoolgrrrl

Geez people don't get so personal!