Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

Conrad · 30 August 2017 at 12:29PM

Why would Remainers think we would not get a deal better than that Canada has, given the EU trades 10 x more with UK than Canada and also given existing UK trade is already friction / tariff free whereas Canada free trade is potential future free trade? Cutting trade with UK will cause actual harm to EU citizens.

Comments above about this modest change in way we trade with EU leading to a lifetime of harm are just fantastical. As I say in just a few short years they will wonder what an earth they were so vexed about.

always_sunny · 30 August 2017 at 12:37PM

ukcarper wrote: »

We are a big part of the EU economy the majority of countries exporting more to us than we do to them. It makes no sense to write that off, I accept that there are lines they can't cross but a compromise will have to be reached.

The UK was a big part of the EU economy but with Brexit it may not longer be and that is fine, the EU has acknowledged that and it's ready to face the consequences.

The biggest EU importer in the UK is Germany with 15%, the Netherlands 7.3% then France 6.2%. This does not mean that 15% of German exports come here, in Europe Germany's biggest market is France 8.2% then the UK 7.6%.

The UK may still be a big economy but it will not be part of the EU. The UK cannot be half in and half out and expect things will be the same as before. The EU integrity is a bigger market than the UK.

A_Medium_Size_Jock · 30 August 2017 at 12:41PM

Herzlos wrote: »

Not my words but ok. We want to have full access to 3 of 4 inseparable freedoms, with no contributions, deference to their arbitration, or their human rights requirements.

We don't want free movement except for some magical borders around Eire and Gibraltar.

So we want all the benefits of being in a EU but without any of the responsibilities that come with being a grown up member of a cooperative organisation.

Am I wrong? Does anyone genuinely expect the EU to agree to that because we buy some cars and tulips?

Okay, look at CETA or the recent (almost) Japan/EU agreements:

Do either of these include the necessity for free travel between countries?

Do either of these include the necessity for EU citizens residing in those countries to be subject to European law above that of the home nation?

Yet (in the case of CETA) 98% of tariffs were removed.
So perhaps you might like to consider why a country such as Canada might receive preferential treatment to a former member country which the UK will become post-Brexit?

always_sunny · 30 August 2017 at 1:00PM

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Okay, look at CETA or the recent (almost) Japan/EU agreements:

Do either of these include the necessity for free travel between countries?

Do either of these include the necessity for EU citizens residing in those countries to be subject to European law above that of the home nation?

Yet (in the case of CETA) 98% of tariffs were removed.
So perhaps you might like to consider why a country such as Canada might receive preferential treatment to a former member country which the UK will become post-Brexit?

CETA and other agreements took years in the making. Is that what the UK is looking for?
Tariffs were removed on goods, what about Services the UK is so keen to export?

Other nations have been suggesting the UK needs to relax immigration rules to secure FTAs from India to Australia.

The UK could always enforce FoM rules... but this ship is now sailed.

gfplux · 30 August 2017 at 1:14PM

This today from Bloomberg's Brexit briefing.

"The U.K. is using an old trick to meet a deadline: ask for more time.

As the third set of Brexit talks ran into familiar roadblocks and bitter frustrations were aired in public, an October deadline for a breakthrough is looking increasingly hard to meet. So the U.K. has asked the EU to squeeze in more negotiating sessions before then, according to a person familiar with the talks.

There are only two more rounds planned before an EU summit that will decide if “sufficient progress” has been made on the divorce settlement for talks to move on to trade. The discussions are scheduled in week-long blocks, yet most of the 100-strong team of British officials didn’t arrive in Brussels until mid-morning on Tuesday. A concluding news conference is slated for Thursday lunchtime.

“The leeway the U.K. government has is very limited,” said Florian Otto, head of Europe research at global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. “It isn’t really an option to let the timeline slip because you have a lot of companies waiting to act on contingency plans.”

The EU has slammed the U.K. for presenting policy papers that don’t answer the key questions — such as the contentious divorce bill — and rebuffed the U.K.’s renewed requests for “flexibility.”

gfplux · 30 August 2017 at 1:16PM

This also from Bloomberg

With or without an agreement, the U.K. is set to leave in March 2019 and the bloc won’t even consider transition arrangements until it’s satisfied the divorce settlement is on track. That means agreeing on a methodology for what the U.K. owes, guarantees for EU citizens living in the U.K., and how to manage the U.K.’s new border with the EU, which will run through the middle of the divided island of Ireland.

The Times reported on Wednesday that Prime Minister Theresa May is planning to go over the heads of commission officials and deal directly with leaders. She will reportedly tell them in October that she’s prepared to make a substantial financial payment but as part of a package that allows “significant” single market access and a customs deal during the transition. She may also approach leaders individually beforehand, the Times said. Still, the unity of the EU27 has so far been unbreached. That doesn’t bode well for any attempts to divide and conquer.

A_Medium_Size_Jock · 30 August 2017 at 1:20PM

always_sunny wrote: »

CETA and other agreements took years in the making. And for how long has the UK been a EU member? Is that what the UK is looking for? You're doing no more than pontificating there. Again, just to clarify: "So perhaps you might like to consider why a country such as Canada might receive preferential treatment to a former member country which the UK will become post-Brexit?"
Tariffs were removed on goods, what about Services the UK is so keen to export? You could perhaps read the agreements in order to avoid the appearance of ignorance.

Other nations have been suggesting the UK needs to relax immigration rules to secure FTAs from India to Australia.
"Other nations" suggestions do not lead to the imposition of free movement as the EU desire though, do they?

The UK could always enforce FoM rules... but this ship is now sailed. *yawn* Again? Really? Which bit of "
"No 10 says free movement ends when UK leaves EU"

are you having difficulty with, specifically?

Responses highlighted above in red.

I should know by now that difficult questions posed in these forums will always be met with obfuscation and distraction but I will try again:
Perhaps you might like to consider why a country such as Canada might receive preferential treatment to a former member country which the UK will become post-Brexit?

Conrad · 30 August 2017 at 1:22PM

always_sunny wrote: »

The UK was a big part of the EU economy but with Brexit it may not longer be and that is fine, the EU has acknowledged that and it's ready to face the consequences.

You take no account of the many European business sectors that certainly are not, nor will ever be ready to 'face the consequences'.

If EU choose to offer a deal that hampers trade, so be it, we will adapt and make the most of low / no tariff free trading from the 85% of world o/s the EU. This will make us comparatively more competitive. Germany can by all means try and sell more luxury cars to Romania if it so chooses.

A_Medium_Size_Jock · 30 August 2017 at 1:22PM

UK taking the initiative in Brexit talks, ‘no deal better than bad deal’, says May

"Speaking on her trip to Japan, Mrs May said in an interview with the BBC: It’s the United Kingdom that has been coming forward with the ideas and with the clarity about the future."
https://www.ft.com/content/0930d378-6a2a-3923-8a23-f694de57af59

Yup, just what some of us have been saying here for a while.

gfplux · 30 August 2017 at 1:23PM

I have spent the last 8 weeks in France, a lot of time on the beach.
I have watched French news almost every night (TF1 20.00) and there is hardly a mention of Brexit. It's as if it's already over. No one seems to care!
Now I am a committed remainer and VERY interested in any or every snippet of Brexit news. Most posters here are also committed to one side or the other.
Can you tell me does Brexit figure in the UK news a lot or is it also becoming a non subject.
Thank you.
Back to the beach soon.

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Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

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