Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

ukcarper

always_sunny wrote: »

Yes yes, the UK is talking, they have money, everybody should listen. Yes, yes.

What's that mean, no real answer?

always_sunny

ukcarper wrote: »

What's that mean, no real answer?

The answer is very similar to 'given that the EU is the UK biggest export market you would think they would care about the EU' but as we have seen with Brexit, it is not about the money.

If this argument 'it is not about the money' works in the UK, the same works in the EU.
Something will be sorted out even without UK contribution, it's not as if there isn't money in the EU to cover it. (as you would say in the UK, it's not as if there are other markets that can cover for the EU loss).

ukcarper

always_sunny wrote: »

The answer is very similar to 'given that the EU is the UK biggest export market you would think they would care about the EU' but as we have seen with Brexit, it is not about the money.

If this argument 'it is not about the money' works in the UK, the same works in the EU.
Something will be sorted out even without UK contribution, it's not as if there isn't money in the EU to cover it. (as you would say in the UK, it's not as if there are other markets that can cover for the EU loss).

The fact is that the EU will miss the money and other net contributors will be reluctant to increase their contribution.

Brexit is not about money to Barnier but we will see if that's the case for Merkel etc.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

Something will be sorted out even without UK contribution, it's not as if there isn't money in the EU to cover it.

Only Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and the UK are net contributors to the EU coffers. In that they receive back less than they contribute.

With a vote of 24 to 3. Hardly surprising that the divorce bill isn't going away as an issue.

AFF8879

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Asia is where the future lies.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/chinese-plan-new-17-billion-financial-district-in-london-as-cash-pours-in-after-brexit-vote-a3399061.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-17/chinese-pile-into-bargain-london-property-on-post-brexit-pound

Not the most recent of articles but still a good oversight of the new financial district (the "Asian Canary Wharf") that is planned...

An MD at the bank I work for mentioned the biggest draw to London for the Chinese is the food....I guess if you already have all the money in the world then why not focus more on life's simpler pleasures...

gfplux

ukcarper wrote: »

I would have thought that they do as we are the second highest net contributor.

That may be so, but that was then. The EU know that Britain is leaving. Budgets will be adjusted. Import and export values will change and life will go on in the EU27.
When the three first issues are sorted properly (Citizens rights, The financial settlement and Irish border) We will see what trade deal if any there will be done.
I want the negotiations to move forward quickly the politicking and positioning by both sides is just a distraction. Originally the British Government wanted secrecy to surround the talks and the EU wanted transparency. Firstly Britain wanted trade discussing alongside the "three key items" Having lost these two major positions no one should be surprised that Britain is trying to dig her heels in.
If it were not so serious it would be more fascinating.

Have no doubt we are witnessing a huge and unprecedented change of direction for Britain unseen in most people's lifetimes.
Leaving the EU is going to continue to be messy. I continue to believe Britain is wrong and that it's prosperity will be damaged for a lifetime.
For generations Britain has punched above its weight on the world stage. Wether Britain will do so in the future I don't know. However as Britain is and has changed so does the world and old loyaltys are being stress tested perhaps to breaking point.

gfplux

This is a report on the KPMG survey.

"Prominent Leave campaigners in the UK have long argued that freedom of movement will be replaced by an immigration system that will continue to attract the so-called “best and brightest.” There are reasons to doubt that.

A survey published by the KPMG consultancy suggests that while 45% of EU nationals living in the UK are planning to stay, 8% are planning to leave and 35% are weighing their options. That corresponds to 1,000,000 people considering an exodus from the UK.

Amongst those planning to leave the younger and brighter are overrepresented.
55% of respondents with PhDs and 39% with postgraduate degrees are thinking about leaving. More broadly, 52% of EU nationals making 50,000-£100,000 are considering leaving."

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/kpmg-study-brightest-best-eu-citizens-leaving-uk/

And yes KPMG are experts so take their findings with a pinch of salt.

gfplux

This is a German business leader (expert?) stating the blooming obvious.

http://www.businessinsider.fr/uk/dihk-and-bcc-statement-on-brexit-and-business-2017-8/

"In a joint statement with the British Chambers of Commerce, Dr Martin Wansleben, the CEO of the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (known as DIHK in German), said that Brexit is causing businesses to rethink their strategy when it comes to the UK.

"The terms of exit are still completely unclear. Many of our members are reporting that they are already shifting investments away from the UK in anticipation of these barriers," he said.

"Businesses are very concerned that Brexit will have a major negative impact. Not only it could lead to more trade barriers – additional bureaucracy, increased waiting time and stricter border controls resulting in higher costs."

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Only Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and the UK are net contributors to the EU coffers. In that they receive back less than they contribute.

With a vote of 24 to 3. Hardly surprising that the divorce bill isn't going away as an issue.

There will be a settling of accounts. But you seem to believe that the EU27 are willing to jeopardise the whole European Union because of the UK contribution is no longer there.

Yes, the UK will no longer contribute, yes, Brexit is happening and the UK is leaving but to think that the whole EU will collapse or bend backwards is silly.
It has been made clear that the UK had the best deal was inside the EU.

Didn't Cameron came back empty handed despite the threat of Brexit?
Do you believe they're going to bake an even better deal to plug the UK contribution?
Do really believe the EU don't know about the fact current UK contribution won't be there in the future?

Folks in the UK keep spinning the "UK contribution" as the leverage that will make everything turn but there is not much to spin really.
You make it sounds as if the EU27 are poor countries needing some sort of donations from the UK to keep afloat but don't forget that these countries are buying 44% of your products and services totalling £240B and your net contribution is less than 4% of that amount.

And yes, 50% of UK imports are from the EU, the UK can switch and import from somewhere else, but so can the EU. Things change, budgets get adjusted, Que sera, sera, I don't know what you are reading but there is no much panic in the EU. The UK is not to centre of the universe...

always_sunny

ukcarper wrote: »

The fact is that the EU will miss the money and other net contributors will be reluctant to increase their contribution.

Brexit is not about money to Barnier but we will see if that's the case for Merkel etc.

You can hope it is Merkel, if Schultz replaces her he is looking at the hardest possible Brexit (possibly satisfying the hard core Brexiteers till the day after)