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2010 predictions thread.....
Comments
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we are facing 20 years (Darlings prediction) of tough times, .
Tough?
:rotfl:
The winter of discontent was "tough".
Bodies piling up because they were unable to be buried due to striking gravediggers.
Electricity outages lasting for days.
3 day working weeks.
Rubbish piling up in the streets as no-one would collect it.
etc.....
A decade or two of paying an extra few percent in tax, and government departments being run a bit more efficiently, is hardly "tough".....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Not when you earn in the top 2% of the population, as you do, Hamish, according to your postings elsewhere.
For other more typical members of society, times may be hard indeed.0 -
Not when you earn in the top 2% of the population, as you do, Hamish, according to your postings elsewhere.
Only if you include two year olds and pensioners, as it turns out.
Neither of whom are known for being big taxpayers.....For other more typical members of society, times may be hard indeed.
Well, possibly they will be slightly harder, but they will certainly not be tougher than they were in the 70's.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
I do remember the 70s, Hamish - not terribly tough.
Gosh, what a lightweight you must have been.
I rather enjoyed powercuts...
0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Tough?
:rotfl:
The winter of discontent was "tough".
Bodies piling up because they were unable to be buried due to striking gravediggers.
Electricity outages lasting for days.
3 day working weeks.
Rubbish piling up in the streets as no-one would collect it.
etc.....
A decade or two of paying an extra few percent in tax, and government departments being run a bit more efficiently, is hardly "tough".....
I suspected you were never going to admit you were wrong!0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Tough?
:rotfl:
The winter of discontent was "tough".
The winter of discontent was caused by budget cuts that are lower than these proposed budget cuts. I suspect that the results will be nasty, but like everything in life, we will get through it.
We live in interesting times, there are great but highly risky economics experiments all over the place, and I guess we are going to find out the results quite soon.“The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens0 -
Trundling along, yes, but at what cost?, regardless of who gets in, we are facing 20 years (Darlings prediction) of tough times, so for many in their 50s and 60s is the choice taxed to the hilt for the rest of their lives by voting tory, or having an im alright jack attitude, and letting future generations pay and voting Labour.
Those in their 50's and 60's will soon be retiring. Large numbers of them will already have paid off their mortgages, sorted out pensions and built up savings. I don't see it'll matter too much either way to them. UNLESS a way is found to claw back money from them. Who's most likely to do that - Labour or Tories?
If I were under 40 I don't think I'd be saying "I'm alright Jack". I'd be struggling to raise kids, pay off a mortgage (or worst still pay rent for life), build up a pension, save....whilst being hammered by taxes to pay off a debt AND support an aging population (quite possibly supporting my own parents). Would it really be so selfish of them to expect subsequent generations to help out?
I don't know what's best. I'm really interested to see more on how each party proposes to tackle the problem. Softening the blow by prolonging the problem doesn't necessarily sound like a bad idea to me.0 -
"If I were under 40 I don't think I'd be saying "I'm alright Jack". I'd be struggling to raise kids, pay off a mortgage (or worst still pay rent for life), build up a pension, save....whilst being hammered by taxes to pay off a debt AND support an aging population"
I'm alright Jack but worry about my children who are in the above category." The greatest wealth is to live content with little."
Plato0 -
So the year is over, time to look at the results.
1. Conservatives will lead the next government, but very possibly with a hung parliament. The race will be closer than expected, and the tories will have to back down on much of their austerity agenda to get elected. Expect a significant change in the narrative from the tories starting in January, with the emphasis on job creation, softening the cuts, efficiency savings and elimination of unpopular programmes (ID cards, etc) rather than big culls of public sector, etc.
True on all counts. Tories formed the coalition government, which they lead, after a hung parliament. Narrative changed dramatically in January and has continued all year. Austerity and cuts were watered down. etc.
2. House prices will end the year marginally up on this year, somewhere between 3% and 8%.
True in Scotland. More like 2% on Land Registry for England.
Spring bounce will be weaker than last year as the election will cause some anxiety and defer purchasing into 2011.
True
There will be at least 3 months of flat or slightly downwards price changes.
True
But 2011 and 2012 will be "boom years" particularly for London with the olympic build up.
fail--- well it looks that way for the first half of 2011 anyway, but 2012 still looks good
3. There will be neither a gilt strike nor a sterling crisis.
True
Bank funding will continue to improve
true, for most of the year
with the return of securitised mortgage funding expanding somewhat from this years limited offers.
true, we've even seen the return of lenders like Paragon who use only securitised funding
LTV's will continue to increase, and bank margins decrease, as competition returns to the market.
true, banks margins have decreased, but still too high, and more higher LTV mortgages are available, but not enough
4. BoE base rate will remain at or below 1% all year.
Correct
5. The additional liquidity created by QE will not be withdrawn in 2010.
Correct
6. Unemployment will peak at a slightly better than expected 2.75 million.
Correct-ish (still don't know if unemployment has peaked, but currently at around 2.5 million and better than expected)
7. Oil prices will break the $80 barrier, and trade between $80 and $100 for most of the year.
Broke the $80 barrier, but spent most of the year between 70 and 90, still damn close.
8. Aberdeen house prices will return to within a couple of percent of, or possibly even slightly exceed, previous peak prices.
Absolutely correct
9. The Gold bubble will burst, as equities, house prices and bonds remain stable investments.
True to some extent on equities, house prices and bonds, but perhaps even an "Epic Fail" on the Gold price.... I'll expand more in the 2011 predictions thread.
10. Crashaholics and Moneyweek readers will continue finding new and increasingly bizarre explanations for why the next leg of the crash is always "just around the corner".
True
Not bad going for a "wish list"....;)
Lets see if the 2011 thread can keep the record going.:D
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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