Crash just started. 40% by mid 2009.

Would you like to revise the -25% nedeed to hit -40% by the end of June 09 after seing todays figures?

pararct wrote: »

File on four had a pretty bearish view the other night on its program and gave examples of how in some circumstances values were down 60%+...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00fl0jg/File_on_4_25112008/

But that is the point 60% fall on one newbuild flat does not mean all houses have fallen 60%.

Average sales prices are a true reflection of the market as a whole.
But if you are purchasing have a look at your local data falls could be higher or lower than average.

zcacmxi wrote: »

Today's figures show that the rate of the HPC slowed during November, and if they continued at this rate then we will not see -25% in 6 months.

However, due to the current economic volatility, job losses, companies entering administration, it is too early to call a recovery..

In the current climate, will people rush out in Spring 2009 and buy up all the unsold property from the previous 18 months? Or will sellers have to start reducing further...

no, but because the average house takes three months to compleat, people would have to accept offers of 40% from peak now and until the end of March to get 40% from peak falls.
Their aint enough repos to support that sorry. Falls will happen but not at the speed you want.
Drops will now be around 16-18% from peak by the end of Dec (18 months) you need a 350% crash increase to get to your figure for end of June..
It aint gona happen mate but good luck trying.

What is happening now with the demise of Woolworths and MFI is the tip of the iceberg. Robert Peston says

Unless something can be done to persuade the big providers of credit insurance to reinstate cover - and that would probably require taxpayers to provide some kind of guarantee - Woolies will not be the last substantial victim.

and as that insurance sector is tightening up it is unlikely that they will put massive sums at risk in a situation where the retail sector is seeing massive falls in sales.

There are constant reports in the media and on the threads of redundancies and reduced hours. We know of factories taking four week Christmas breaks, all in all it does not inspire confidence in the housing market having the factors in place to have even a stabilised level of fall.

In May this year there were posters on this board who were hotly disputing that there would be the falls that there already have been. Only a very few forecasters predicted the events of the past 6 months. Even now there are forecasters on Bloomberg warning that AIG is not safe. The global economy is in unchartered waters, the only thing the majority of commentators can agree on is that it is going to get worse.

Given all of that, house prices are only heading down. I think we would all have been better off if there had been control and restraint in lending. If I had said that in the recent past I would have been accused of not wanting everyone to own their own house! Now, by stating facts and saying that house prices will fall to 40%, that despite the possible 3 month period of grace that there are going to be a lot of re-pessessions, the accusation is that people are taking pleasure in re-possessions and misery!

Really2 wrote: »

See my industry is different there is end of line distressed stock which is cheap but it is a case of buy it or lose it.
It may not come up again. People can not buy an equiverlent at distressed prices in I.T. You either buy it or lose out.

What about the contractors and employees in IT? My understanding is that there are downward pressures on wages there. Much by way of over-supply except at top-levels where high skills command top money.

Lower wages, a population tapped-out = lower final value product fee.