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Another crash ???????

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  • sabretoothtigger
    sabretoothtigger Posts: 10,035 Forumite
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    edited 20 March 2010 at 1:43PM
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    Try barcap on iii

    jamesd wrote: »
    That won't help if there's a sentiment-driven recoil from UK shares including lots of foreigners selling because of concerns about what a drop in the Pound will do to the value of their holdings. In that situation it's best not to be holding FTSE 100 shares. At other times their non-Pound revenue is helpful if the Pound drops, but not if it's accompanied by lots of selling. You can end up taking a loss on the share price just because everything is dropping.


    If the company is based in mexico and mines silver there then the uk economy or government bonds or trade balance do not affect that company or its share price.

    If UK market corruption were suspected that might drop the price but ultimately I think mexicos politics and stability is more relevant to the share price

    Prices can be wrong, company value is what matters more is what I mean there



    Rather then express an opinion I'll post up an old bbc page I found

    zimb.png



    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM


    Zimbabwe Stock Exchange resumes trade

    February 19, 2009

    The Zimbabwe stock market had over the past two yeas been the preferred investment vehicle as it offered returns which were above inflation.

    While the country’s economy was crumbling, the Zimbabwean share speculator was on average earning returns above inflation, keeping up much better than ordinary citizens on the street.

    Most shares were gaining by over 50 000 percent in one day. This jump in share prices was in excess of increases in consumer prices which averaged 10 000 daily during the same period.

    Events that stimulate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – a country’s wealth, will inevitably drive stock prices up, while any event that hurts GDP growth pulls stocks prices down.

    The opposite was however happening in Zimbabwe; share prices continued to rise while the economy continued to collapse.

    Economic analysts said excess growth in money supply was giving a wrong impression to investors who used the stock exchange as a barometer for Zimbabwe’s economic performance.

    The country has been suffering from catastrophic economic and political policies, largely blamed on President Robert Mugabe’s government. The only means for government to fund itself has been through printing money.

    The stock market had become a prime beneficiary of any monetary expansion. Fresh money enters the economy first through banks and other financial institutions which may invest it in shares, or lend it to others who buy shares.

    Thus stock prices rise above prices of food and other investment vehicles and will outperform them as long as this monetary process is allowed to continue.
    http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=12045



    Probably not much point to criticise people who called the top wrong. The whole idea is a fallacy I think.
    Sometimes the price is high and sometimes its good value, if we can apply this logic to grocery shopping why are shares so different, I think buffet and others state things along this line and prosper for it .

    It no doubt helps to have amazing independent judgement skills which he does
    Kass: Market Has Likely Topped
    By Doug Kass 08/26/09 - 01:11 PM EDT
    http://www.thestreet.com/story/10590765/4/kass-market-has-likely-topped.html
  • Biggles
    Biggles Posts: 8,209 Forumite
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    pwpevans wrote: »
    I got this yesterday from an email...

    (It's from a fleet street investment group) So take a large pinch of salt with it...
    I think you'll find that 'Fleet Street' is a publishing group, not an investment group. They make their money from getting you interested in subscribing to their newsletters, not from either investing, or from being right about future trends. So take what they say with a massive pinch of salt.
    ;-)
  • GH
    GH Posts: 366 Forumite
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    According to this expert you've only got a month left to sell all your shares:
    http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/video/week-in-investment/content.aspx?ID=389054&re=8844&ea=27768
  • jamesd
    jamesd Posts: 26,103 Forumite
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    Interesting to see what high inflation did to share prices in Zimbabwe. Not really a market I'd want to be in, though it's a touch more sensible in the current interlude between the next semi-coup by its long term ruler.
  • sabretoothtigger
    sabretoothtigger Posts: 10,035 Forumite
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    Kass: Market Has Likely Topped
    By Doug Kass 08/26/09 - 01:11 PM EDT


    On some perspectives he was right. It really does come down to peoples personal value for each company and when priced in dollars or pounds this is not necessarily a true reflection.
    Very misleading I think


    spxgold.png
  • GH
    GH Posts: 366 Forumite
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    GH wrote: »
    According to this expert you've only got a month left to sell all your shares:
    http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/video/week-in-investment/content.aspx?ID=389054&re=8844&ea=27768

    Just goes to prove these so called "experts" haven't a clue. Best to ignore them.
  • bendix
    bendix Posts: 5,499 Forumite
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    Well, hold on GH. He made that 'one month left' prediction in late March. The markets effectively peaked in late April, and then fell 12-15%.
  • dunstonh
    dunstonh Posts: 116,830 Forumite
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    edited 5 August 2010 at 8:46PM
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    This is a problem with the internet. I have seen a few articles rise up over the last week or so saying there is a 20% crash coming. However, when you read the text and go searching, most of these actually appear to come from other articles or info that came up in April time. So, if you are not careful you can end up reading "opinions" that were made months ago in articles only posted days ago.

    Also, no-one has a clue. You have an opinion based on a range of facts but there are just too many variables that can change events significantly. Not getting it right doesnt mean they are not an expert in their field. No expert was able to predict terrorists flying planes into buildings in 2001, or that American accountancy standards at some major us companies were significantly flawed. yet both events led to market drops.
    I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The comments I make are just my opinion and are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice and you should not treat them as such. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.
  • dzug1
    dzug1 Posts: 13,535 Forumite
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    cashsurf wrote: »
    I'm working with a guy who claims that a money saving magazine he is signed up with has predicted that the FTSE will crash in june and anybody with investment funds should be pulling out now,has anybody heard anything?

    If that's the money saving magazine I think it is it's been making the same predictions for years - only the date changes
  • sabretoothtigger
    sabretoothtigger Posts: 10,035 Forumite
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    A crash is a drop of over 10% in one day. In 2008 I dont believe we actually had a crash in that way, 9% a few times in a row but more of a gradual and crushing reality check. Then it rallyed 5% a few times also

    In may 6th we had the FTSE futures suddenly drop to 4300 but not many shares really traded at this level. The lowest I saw was 4800 and that was gradual again.

    I think a crash is possible in those limited terms but it'll be a buying opportunity because of all the cash thats been produced, you are better off owning parts of some big oil company or bank even.
    A crash seems likely just because of there is such disparity in expectations and the actual economic results, government debt and spending are said to be a good thing when they are most likely causing harm in the long term.
    So if that is correct people will get a nasty shock a few times till they adjust, ultimately prices will rise anyway aka Mugabe's boom

    This week is jobs figures and the market has risen alot recently, I think a reset in that way is possible here though it may take continued poor or flat results to arrive before it sinks in perhaps

    the future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today, wars, massive government debt defaults and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMhQm_zVsrs
    http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=31535
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