House price rises "not sustainable"

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Ahh right, my bad.

Secure personal loans obviously don't exist then, silly me!!

Only if you want to mew. You have to own a house with equity for one of those, unlike a personal loan.

But I'm sure you know that already.

sjaypink wrote: »

:rotfl:oooh dont i feel priviledged

no seriously, it was not a dig, it was a genuine question!

whether your change in wording meant a change in view on where this is heading, if it doesnt then thats cool, just wondered :A

Correct. I have no change in view.

My prediction is the bottom of this crash happened in Feb 2009. Although I believe further falls are likely, I don't think prices will fall below that figure.

EDIT: And because no future crash (i.e the next boom and bust cycle) has never reached the previous bottom - prices will NEVER be below that level.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well a bold prediction Dan.

It would take just a fall of 8% from today to reach that 147k level.

We have the autumn and winter to get through, unemployment rocketing to get through, interest rate rises to get through, a whole new government to get through, a plethora of tax rises to get through, £231bn of unsecured debt which the nation is holding to get through, QE to turn off.

If we can get through all that without a fall of 8% from todays prices, I would be utterly astonished.

We have had the crash. We have had the medicine, which has allowed us a breather from the problems. We have yet to undergo the actual recovery.

Last year when I predicted stability from Spring 2009 was considered a wild prediction also.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

We haven't had any stability since spring.

We've gone from bust, to boom. How is that stablility? Even a U shape would be better than a sharp V, which only spells more trouble.

If the only people who can afford houses are those in a couple who both work full time, with no kids, those with equity, and those with the bank of mum and dad, how on EARTH can prices not fall 8% from here?

Is stability me really the above?

We have had some months of rises, these will be followed by some months of falls. Im not expecting massive HPI back to 2007 levels and beyond, nor am I expecting massive falls of another 20%. To me, that is stability.

We will probarly end up with a nike tick shape.

Dan: wrote: »

We have had some months of rises, these will be followed by some months of falls. Im not expecting massive HPI back to 2007 levels and beyond, nor am I expecting massive falls of another 20%. To me, that is stability.

We will probarly end up with a nike tick shape.

Stability to me is a coll off period. A period where people know where they stand. A period in which someone can buy a house without the first thought being "what's happened to mortgages this week" or "whats happened to house prices this week.

A period where buyers are not scared off by looming interest rates, are not scared by negative equity the month after they buy.

A period where you can actually save up each month and work towards a deposit, instead of finding you are only going backwards and the tables have suddenly turned as soon as you have your deposit.

The stability you are talking about was going from complete bust in january, turning to boom in february on the back of the lowest known mortgage approvals and a massively, and constantly changing mortgage landscape.

That's about as far away from stability as you can get in my mind.