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Have house prices dropped?!!
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Could you please name one and give a source for house price data in that area?
Speaking from memory, during the previous peak/trough some areas, eg Scotland, had not gone up so much and had less far to fall. This time round, pretty much the whole of the UK shared in the boom.
Ok Edinburgh,
And not from memory
, If you check this link, you will see that each year there was drops, it recovered the following year.
13.46% increas in 1989
14.60% increase in 1990
Largest drop was in 1997 of 4.21%, sandwiched between 12.98% and 8.57% rises
http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/19_01_08PostTownsData3.xls
If you don't like Scotland, how about Aberdare, Mid-Glamorgan. Wales
dropped 11.23% in 1992 and recovered 21.66% in 1993
But even better, looking at England, how about Barnsley
Dropped in 1992, 1994, 1997 and 2000, each following year recovered to a higher average price.
Now I'm not going through the whole spreadsheet for you :wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
Cannon_Fodder wrote: »The OP is in Essex, I don't think the Scottish system is relevant.
I was responding to your no-one EVER quote which was factually incorrect:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
I suppose I wasn't really thinking about the Barratt type of 4 bedroom houses when I posted - space wise overall they are often smaller than your traditional 3 bed semi (although 1930s houses have poor layouts they often have decent gardens and can be extended and altered to make much more comfortable and practical family homes).
Anyway, I take your point, new build 4 bedroom houses are definitely more likely to be mortgaged as well as bought recently by definition - making the owners much more likely to need to sell than someone who has paid their mortgage.
I don't doubt for a moment that these sorts of 4 bed houses will be widely available at reasonable prices shortly if they aren't already.
I'm not so sure how many large period houses will be on the market at good prices though. I still reckon that a lot of these will be owned by people who have either paid off their mortgages in full or have a good buffer of equity to enable them to ride out the recession without needing to sell.0 -
whathavewedone wrote: »I suppose I wasn't really thinking about the Barratt type of 4 bedroom houses when I posted - space wise overall they are often smaller than your traditional 3 bed semi (although 1930s houses have poor layouts they often have decent gardens and can be extended and altered to make much more comfortable and practical family homes).
Anyway, I take your point, new build 4 bedroom houses are definitely more likely to be mortgaged as well as bought recently by definition - making the owners much more likely to need to sell than someone who has paid their mortgage.
I don't doubt for a moment that these sorts of 4 bed houses will be widely available at reasonable prices shortly if they aren't already.
I'm not so sure how many large period houses will be on the market at good prices though. I still reckon that a lot of these will be owned by people who have either paid off their mortgages in full or have a good buffer of equity to enable them to ride out the recession without needing to sell.
I guessed afterwards that was the point you were trying to make, so apologies if I seem pedantic!
I agree about the larger period houses. In my area, such houses are few and far between, and probably averaged about £1.2-£1.5m at peak in 2007. When they come on now, they seem to sell quite quickly at less of a discount than smaller places require. They are selling at 2006 prices, wheras everything else is sticking at 2004 prices.
It is slightly different further out into the commuter belt, though. I have seen several nice 5 bed houses that would have been about £1.5m at peak on the market for under £1m now. Must be the bankers selling up!0 -
I certainly would wait, if I could. Surely, lots of people get to their 70's or 80's and find that they just cannot clean 5 bedrooms and mow a 1 acre lawn every week any more. I am sure a lot of them will soldier on, but some won't have the choice and will have to sell. It only takes a few of these to filter through, and those upsizing from smaller houses have the ammunition to aks for price cuts themselves.
Many of those in their 70s/80s will already have downsized. Even if they haven't, many people are living longer and are much more active and capable into their 70s and 80s. I know some people in their 70s who LIVE for their substantial gardens... Plus many will have kids/grandkids willing to help out (either through the kindess or their hearts or to protect inheritance etc).
I would imagine that most people look to downsize in their 60s or early 70s: at which stage "hanging on another 5/7 years" shouldn't be too difficult.
Those are both generalisations, though... and you are completely right that some houses will filter through. BUT I see the property market as a pyramid: at that level there aren't a lot of properties full-stop, let alone a lot filtering through. Economies of scale: the more housing stock within a property type the greater the equity (very little housing stock at the top of the market means that they can be muchmore of a law to themselves).
To be honest, I am not convinced that a few "filtering through" provides much "ammunition to ask for price cuts" across the board. I think that we already have enough reason to ask for price cuts ("buyers are asking me to sell my house for 2004 prices, how can you expect me to afford to pay 'late 2007 and then some' prices" for your house?"), but it really doesn't mean that is going to effect what the seller wants for their property... (UNLESS they are desperate to sell). Yes, as buyers we can ask for a price cut like that, but if the seller isn't motivated to sell (and MOST in larger houses wont be), then they will just bide their time...
I don't think that we can expect much equity in house prices across the upper reaches of the market in a recession - we can just expect a few properties, with very motivated sellers, to buck the trend and come down towards buyer's expectations.
So we, personally, need to be in a good position to pick up one of those few exceptions. if/when it comes along...
QT0 -
Its a funny old world. We have no debt apart from the mortgage but I feel we have earned this position. Both of us are working full time, we both have good jobs and I hope are able to give our children the opportunities that certainly I didnt have when I was growing up but it is hard, I havent made all the plays, sports days etc and I am determined that the boys dont take our life style for granted but if my husband and I arent in this position now (mid/late 40's) we were never going to achieve it so I dont feel so bad.
I think the FTB's have a good opportunity now to maybe make their first step on the housing ladder and possibly jump a step or two but who knows where house prices and mortgage rates will be in 2 years time.
Sometimes one just needs to take a risk. I do feel sorry for some of the FTB's who are being advised by people to rent rooms/stay at home with parents for months even years on end until house prices bottom out.0 -
Sometimes one just needs to take a risk. I do feel sorry for some of the FTB's who are being advised by people to rent rooms/stay at home with parents for months even years on end until house prices bottom out.
I think it is a personal choice - no matter what anyone says on here it is just an opinion: those FTB have to wiegh up the opinions (preferably take professional advice from elsewhere), work out their own priorities and make up their own minds...
Personally, I agree with you: life is about living. I certainly wouldn't wait until the market hits bottom, I would just wait until the right opportunity appears for me: an opportunity that I am happy and financially secure with.
QT0 -
Just thought I'd have fun translating. Hope you don't mindIts a funny old world. This post isn't funny. We have no debt apart from the mortgage but I feel we have earned this position.We have a huge debt. Both of us are working full time we can't afford time off, we both have good jobs we have jobs and I hope are able to give our children the opportunities that certainly I didnt have when I was growing up we buy them stuff but it is hard my God it's hard sob , I havent made all the plays, sports days etc I've missed out and I am determined that the boys dont take our life style for granted they're spoilt but if my husband and I arent in this position now (mid/late 40's) fifties we were never going to achieve it so I dont feel so bad. I'm gutted
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Very funny mewbie, we really are in our mid to late forties (I am the older one btw!) We also only have the mortgage as debt.......0
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The boys won't notice 'The Lifestyle' because to them, it's just 'normal'.Its a funny old world. We have no debt apart from the mortgage but I feel we have earned this position. Both of us are working full time, we both have good jobs and I hope are able to give our children the opportunities that certainly I didnt have when I was growing up but it is hard, I havent made all the plays, sports days etc and I am determined that the boys dont take our life style for granted but if my husband and I arent in this position now (mid/late 40's) we were never going to achieve it so I dont feel so bad.
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Hope it all carries on well, some peoples circumstances never change....their perfect lives just stay perfect for ever and ever......but sometimes they can.
You never know what's around the corner.
I think that's why some older posters (when did mid 40's become old? I am that age too) are advising caution as they have seen people over commit at the wrong time and they lived through the 90's slowdown.
I understand where you are coming from as you had your kids later in life so one has other concerns. You had the opportunity to establish career, buy house before the kids came along.
I am your age but my kids are 21 and nearly 15 and we did it the other way around....by fitting their schedules around the work rather than vice versa...affects ones earning powers for a good many years plus all the other costs involved in bringing them up.
Got to do Catch Up now......0
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