Have house prices dropped?!!

mean_momma

whathavewedone wrote: »

CF and Carolt - I absolutely agree that anyone who needs to sell their house be it at the top or bottom of a chain will set the market rate for similar houses in similar areas.

The difference between now and the previous recession is that looking up prices on the Internet was not so common (or didn't yet exist?). All the same, if the odd house in a street is seen to be sold cheaply in a recession, it doesn't follow that the whole street will be affected. There is no record of condition, outlook, and other features that affect value. Repos and distress sales have always been bargains for the lucky few.

geoffky

mean_momma wrote: »

. All the same, if the odd house in a street is seen to be sold cheaply in a recession, it doesn't follow that the whole street will be affected.



OH YES IT DOES...THATS HOW RICS WORK

fc123

whathavewedone wrote: »

Death Divorce Debt moves will continue obviously I was never disputing that.

As you can see from this thread though CF, while the desire is there for people to upsize at the moment there are problems at the top of the chain. These are the people most likely to have paid off their mortgages and are therefore able to sit it out for as long as it takes provided that they don't die or divorce or get a job the other side of the country.

If you have to sell your own house at 2004 prices or less how can you possibly afford to buy a house that's still priced at 2007 prices? The answer is that you can't and people who don't have to move at the moment are most likely to be downsizers.

My mother is a good example of this, although she only has a 2 bedroom cottage. She put it on the market at the agent's suggested price of 275k in September. I did tell her that I thought it was outrageously high but she wasn't having any of it. In fact she was so huffy with me for so long that I can understand how difficult it must be for agents to be brutally honest with a lot of sellers. People, especially older ladies, take such news as an indication that they don't have a nice home rather than a reflection of the market as a whole.

Anyway by Christmas she hadn't had one viewing. She phoned the agents who suggested reducing it to 249,995k. She said no thanks and took it off the market. She's 72 and wants to get a flat. I did point out that she should be able to get a flat really cheaply, wouldn't have to pay the asking price etc so could reduce her price to 200k and still easily buy somewhere suitable. The trouble is most flats in Tunbridge Wells are being let, there are hardly any available for sale and even if there were she is adamant that she won't accept less than 275k for her house. Old people are stubborn like that. She has no mortgage of course and is still pretty sprightly so can afford to sit it out.

This is just anecdotal of course but I think amidst all the graphs and facts and figures you do still have to take some account of human nature in all of this.

I love that statement. I have full sympathies with your mum. My mother is the same.

My stepfather has a heart condition (his own father dropped dead @ 46 due to it coupled with lifestyle) and he has thwarted it through excercise and exemplary living (health iwise) but @ age 75, he had a scare recently.

She knows she will need to sell as their current home is big and too much for her (she's a bit 'Girly', I know I shouldn't say it, but a different generation).
Whilst he was hospitalised, we discussed. very tactfully, value in £££ terms.

My contribution about 'Value' wasn't taken on board. I am the eldest, and oddly, seem to be a mirror image of my Dad. When I talk about Value, it's related to other value rather than just cash/price ticket.

She is convinced the house is worth silly money, cos some bloke from Rotary says so...shark bloke I may add.......some types just can't help themselves....even during semi- retirement. I am sure he would want to flog her some cra99y equity release thingy.

And then she's going on about double glazed, humungous patio doors (that fell off the runners once when my brother was trying to sneak a smoke...and nearly killed him) and The Garden...''what price plants, lovingly tended for many years'' and so on.

Older types need time to accept the change. I reckon in 5 years, prices will have settled down, and she will really be ready to move then...and accept the new ticket prices.

IveSeenTheLight

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

No-one is EVER going to volunteer £20K (15%) more than the asking.

This was the standard and minimum percentage to go over a couple of years back in Scotland where they operate a sealed bid system. It was standard to put in a price lower than the valuation to generate interest and then receive bids above the valuation.

Not sure at the moment as have not seriously been assessing the buying market for the last 2 years (Last bought Jan 2007)

Certainly does not fall into your no-one will ever statement

IveSeenTheLight

domcastro wrote: »

Don't back down - 120 to 130 is a fair price if it was 145 3 years ago (it would be less than that now). Wait a while.

Hmmmm, you dont even know which area it is in.
Each area is affected differently.
I could easily proove areas where the price is higher now than three years ago

IveSeenTheLight

GDB2222 wrote: »

Bear in mind that the last down-cycle took 7 years until prices started to pick up. We are say 18 months through this one, so don't panic.

You are talking UK averages here.
There were some areas in the last down cycle that recovered within a year

Dont get hung up on UK averages, check your own area and property type.

fc123

tommy75 wrote: »

I pretty much agree with what you have said. I didn't say that I thought houses would still be losing value in 10+ years time and agree that things should be settled hopefully by the end of 2010. I don't think there will be a certain point where FTB will pile in. People will buy in when its finantially right for them all the way down and all the way up next time.

FTB usually end up buying when EVERY box is ticked. The finance being available, the job security to repay the finance......and their own circumstances at the time.
Some can ride it out and try to assess the bottom, but others have lives to get on with, cruddy landlords or neighbours, not living the life that they would want and so on.

We bought first time as I was turning into Crazee woman.....I was stranded in Nil By Mouth Land and wanted out a soon as prices got low enough.

Yeah, we could have waited, and history shows us that we would have saved 10k on purchase (so, I guess £30k on repayment over the years) but the therapy and fallout would have been dearer.

Just to add, we were FTB family with toddler in 1990.

QTPie

fc123 wrote: »

And then she's going on about double glazed, humungous patio doors (that fell off the runners once when my brother was trying to sneak a smoke...and nearly killed him) and The Garden...''what price plants, lovingly tended for many years'' and so on.

Older types need time to accept the change. I reckon in 5 years, prices will have settled down, and she will really be ready to move then...and accept the new ticket prices.

Older parents are so funny...

When my mother sold up and downsized about three years ago (a couple of years after my Dad passed away), some of the things she said and did were priceless.

She didn't want to stay in the same area (that she has lived for the previous 35 years): she couldn't bare the stigma of living in a cheaper property in the same area... :rolleyes: (although she could have got some LOVELY apartments in one of the local converted manor houses, but no....). I think that was a mistake really, but there you go. So she "moved closer to me". That is what she tells everyone, but she used to live and hour's drive to the East of me, now she lives 45 minutes drive to the West or me... :rotfl:

Also, when we were looking for somewhere for her to move to, she was constantly poo-pooing what she saw: it is way too small! I think that she wanted to "downsize" to the same size property... (although eventually she did manage to adjust her expectations and got a lovely flat ).

Probably one of the best quotes (that has stayed with husband and I ever since) was when I commented that she WOULD get less for her money if she moved nearer me since "it was a more expensive area". You wouldn't BELIEVE how aggrieved she got! She said, VERY pointedly at me, "Listen here! I am not looking to move to a more expensive area, I am looking to move to an area that HAPPENS to be more expensive!!!" :mad:

:rotfl: (that is now the standard quote around here, if I like something that is more expensive than an alternative, then I "don't want something more expensive, I want something that HAPPENS to be more expensive"...)

QT

QTPie

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You are talking UK averages here.
There were some areas in the last down cycle that recovered within a year

Dont get hung up on UK averages, check your own area and property type.

That is VERY good advice... much of the opinion given on here doesn't have the context of a buyer's/seller's situation/area. Each buyer/seller REALLY needs to do their own research (into their own circumstances and area) and make the decision that suits them and their specific situation.

The property market is always speculative and, every which way you go, there is risk involved. Deciding what risks you are happy with is a personal decision.

jockster211

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

This was the standard and minimum percentage to go over a couple of years back in Scotland where they operate a sealed bid system.

Unfortunately recent 'news' that house prices in Scotland are unlikely to be severely affected by the downturn/recession/housing crash, has led many north of the border to stick to the 15% over price. Average drop in my area I'd say is around 5% from a year ago, but many prices simply have not budged.

My missus & I have been viewing & offering 'cheeky' bids at somewhere around 15% under the 'offers over bit' still with no joy. Shame is its by & large the same houses on the market that were there a year ago. Some sellers will take time to take the reality check:rolleyes:.

Is it the same all over the UK just now or is this some local economics going against the tide?

Jockster