Have house prices dropped?!!

Cozworth806

Given that I bought a 3 bed terrace in 2000 for £29k and sold in 2007 for £101k then I would seriously doubt that year 2000 prices are likely to be seen again around here in West Yorkshire.
Even allowing for inflation I would have thought that someone buying now in a comparable situation as I was then would be in a position to pay around £50k given that it was on 3 times low salary. The minimum wage has since kicked in so that a single person working full time will be earning at least £12k (I was on £10k in 2000)

Depends how widespread unemployment gets

fc123

There will always be people that need to sell....and at whatever the market will pay. They then set the new values (assuming they are logged onto the Land Registry).

It has been posted loads of times.....3 D's. Debt, Divorce, Death. All reasons to sell at Any price.


Pls let me have a teeny, tiny bit of shuadenfraude.

I am sure Mr Fat Cat + V Comfy Lifestyle is 'just' downsizing....near retirement, perhaps fancies a change, a bar in Spain or little B + B in Dorset....just to keep him busy....now his employer is off to prison.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5627398.ece

Cannon_Fodder

whathavewedone wrote: »

the fact of the matter is that it is not a good time to sell and people will not do so..

Families needing another bedroom, couples joining/splitting, jobs moving, up-the-ladder moves, all will continue.

If 'they' should fear gazundering or having to sell at a discount, 'they' just need to negotiate sensibly with their step up the chain and it should hold together.


Numbers will not be the levels previously seen, but enough to turnover stock and apply the % drops to more and more areas, towns, streets.


Each buyer/seller *should* balance their overall sale/purchase calculation. Many don't even stop to think about it, they just 'want' what they want and do it.

whathavewedone

Death Divorce Debt moves will continue obviously I was never disputing that.

As you can see from this thread though CF, while the desire is there for people to upsize at the moment there are problems at the top of the chain. These are the people most likely to have paid off their mortgages and are therefore able to sit it out for as long as it takes provided that they don't die or divorce or get a job the other side of the country.

If you have to sell your own house at 2004 prices or less how can you possibly afford to buy a house that's still priced at 2007 prices? The answer is that you can't and people who don't have to move at the moment are most likely to be downsizers.

My mother is a good example of this, although she only has a 2 bedroom cottage. She put it on the market at the agent's suggested price of 275k in September. I did tell her that I thought it was outrageously high but she wasn't having any of it. In fact she was so huffy with me for so long that I can understand how difficult it must be for agents to be brutally honest with a lot of sellers. People, especially older ladies, take such news as an indication that they don't have a nice home rather than a reflection of the market as a whole.

Anyway by Christmas she hadn't had one viewing. She phoned the agents who suggested reducing it to 249,995k. She said no thanks and took it off the market. She's 72 and wants to get a flat. I did point out that she should be able to get a flat really cheaply, wouldn't have to pay the asking price etc so could reduce her price to 200k and still easily buy somewhere suitable. The trouble is most flats in Tunbridge Wells are being let, there are hardly any available for sale and even if there were she is adamant that she won't accept less than 275k for her house. Old people are stubborn like that. She has no mortgage of course and is still pretty sprightly so can afford to sit it out.

This is just anecdotal of course but I think amidst all the graphs and facts and figures you do still have to take some account of human nature in all of this.

Cannon_Fodder

whathavewedone wrote: »

.This is just anecdotal of course but I think amidst all the graphs and facts and figures you do still have to take some account of human nature in all of this.

Oh, totally agree.

Its the same human nature that makes all the silly financial decisions/debt/125% mortgages etc etc, that we have seen in recent years.

And some "silly" people will keep trying to sell...

carolt

whathavewedone wrote: »

Death Divorce Debt moves will continue obviously I was never disputing that.

As you can see from this thread though CF, while the desire is there for people to upsize at the moment there are problems at the top of the chain. These are the people most likely to have paid off their mortgages and are therefore able to sit it out for as long as it takes provided that they don't die or divorce or get a job the other side of the country.

If you have to sell your own house at 2004 prices or less how can you possibly afford to buy a house that's still priced at 2007 prices? The answer is that you can't and people who don't have to move at the moment are most likely to be downsizers.

My mother is a good example of this, although she only has a 2 bedroom cottage. She put it on the market at the agent's suggested price of 275k in September. I did tell her that I thought it was outrageously high but she wasn't having any of it. In fact she was so huffy with me for so long that I can understand how difficult it must be for agents to be brutally honest with a lot of sellers. People, especially older ladies, take such news as an indication that they don't have a nice home rather than a reflection of the market as a whole.

Anyway by Christmas she hadn't had one viewing. She phoned the agents who suggested reducing it to 249,995k. She said no thanks and took it off the market. She's 72 and wants to get a flat. I did point out that she should be able to get a flat really cheaply, wouldn't have to pay the asking price etc so could reduce her price to 200k and still easily buy somewhere suitable. The trouble is most flats in Tunbridge Wells are being let, there are hardly any available for sale and even if there were she is adamant that she won't accept less than 275k for her house. Old people are stubborn like that. She has no mortgage of course and is still pretty sprightly so can afford to sit it out.

This is just anecdotal of course but I think amidst all the graphs and facts and figures you do still have to take some account of human nature in all of this.

But she is irrelevant - as she doesn't sell, her house price is detemined not by some imaginary figure in her head, but by the prices her neighbours' houses actually do reach, when they sell.

Lots might be like her, and choose not to sell either - and they are all equally irrelevant.

But the one - only one is needed - who has to sell, due to needing to move into a home, ill health or even death, will then set the price for all the others, like it or not.

That will then be the going rate for your mum's house too.

If she never needs to sell, she may be able to live her life comfortable in her delusions of wealth.

QTPie

whathavewedone wrote: »

Death Divorce Debt moves will continue obviously I was never disputing that.

As you can see from this thread though CF, while the desire is there for people to upsize at the moment there are problems at the top of the chain. These are the people most likely to have paid off their mortgages and are therefore able to sit it out for as long as it takes provided that they don't die or divorce or get a job the other side of the country.

If you have to sell your own house at 2004 prices or less how can you possibly afford to buy a house that's still priced at 2007 prices? The answer is that you can't and people who don't have to move at the moment are most likely to be downsizers.

My mother is a good example of this, although she only has a 2 bedroom cottage. She put it on the market at the agent's suggested price of 275k in September. I did tell her that I thought it was outrageously high but she wasn't having any of it. In fact she was so huffy with me for so long that I can understand how difficult it must be for agents to be brutally honest with a lot of sellers. People, especially older ladies, take such news as an indication that they don't have a nice home rather than a reflection of the market as a whole.

Anyway by Christmas she hadn't had one viewing. She phoned the agents who suggested reducing it to 249,995k. She said no thanks and took it off the market. She's 72 and wants to get a flat. I did point out that she should be able to get a flat really cheaply, wouldn't have to pay the asking price etc so could reduce her price to 200k and still easily buy somewhere suitable. The trouble is most flats in Tunbridge Wells are being let, there are hardly any available for sale and even if there were she is adamant that she won't accept less than 275k for her house. Old people are stubborn like that. She has no mortgage of course and is still pretty sprightly so can afford to sit it out.

This is just anecdotal of course but I think amidst all the graphs and facts and figures you do still have to take some account of human nature in all of this.

Spot on (and, on a personal note, SOOOOO glad that my mother moved into a flat a few years ago - am pretty sure she would have the same attitude as her mother, despite the house needing more and more upkeep...).

To be honest, I think that an awful lot of it has to do with human nature - people are sheep: that is why we get booms and busts...

In 2004, my house was worth about £380k, the houses that i am looking at now were worth about £485k/£550k (looking at houseprices.co.uk, zoopla etc).

Mine is the same state it was then: it was brand new when we bought it, I have had the garden professionally landscaped, it has quality fixtures and fittings and is in immaculate condition. Obviously the houses that I am looking at could vary quite a bit (new kitchens, new bathrooms, who knows) since 2004.

The houses that we are looking at aren't going for £485/£550k, they are going for £700/£750k :rolleyes: . Trying to negotiate a 5% decrease (£35k+) at those prices (when people are in "no hurry to move" ), let along 20% price decrease (£140k) is impossible... The sellers would rather just "wait it out" (unless they get lucky).

One has just gone on the market this past weekend: asking price £720k as it comes onto the market. Was priced at £525k 2004 and Zoopla suggests it's value today is just under £521k. Has had things done to it, but not tastefully or in keeping (kitchen is small and very cheap looking, cheap laminate floors all over the place, decoration clashes with the period nature of the house etc): you are basically looking at gutting it and starting again... Will be interesting to see what happens: if it is a D/D/D sale, it may drop... but very similar houses - around here - just stick at their "late 2007 and then some price" (Zoopla believes that the top price for that house, in 2007, was £650k) or get withdrawn from the market completely.

Many of us may have to wait until there is less disparity in human nature before we can move on....

Very frustratiing. Although saying that, at least we are financially safe (in a lot better position than many).

QT

hethmar

We have a large 4 bed house with a 30 ft kitchen and quarter of an acre garden - our kids grew up here and we love it but we were going to use it to fund our retirement. Not now - we shall stick it out. We have no mortgage, outgoings are low - we may aswell stay here in a house we love than downsize and not be much better off.

QTPie

hethmar wrote: »

We have a large 4 bed house with a 30 ft kitchen and quarter of an acre garden - our kids grew up here and we love it but we were going to use it to fund our retirement. Not now - we shall stick it out. We have no mortgage, outgoings are low - we may aswell stay here in a house we love than downsize and not be much better off.

Where do you live? (half-joking... ).

Which is why we will probably be forced to wait... even if it means moving into rented accomodation (larger family house) and renting our own out. When house prices have more equilibrium (or they crash so much that we can hang on to our own house and buy our next one), then we can look again...

QT

whathavewedone

CF and Carolt - I absolutely agree that anyone who needs to sell their house be it at the top or bottom of a chain will set the market rate for similar houses in similar areas.

I don't think that's particularly relevant in relation to my point about upsizers and downsizers though. My point was that people who can stay put will stay put until the market rises again whether that be out of stubborness, vanity or simply because they want to have more money to play with when they retire. The reasons are irrelevant. It's the effects that matter.

The result of this is that would be upsizers in 2/3 bed houses can't afford to reduce their prices because they can't afford to buy anything else. So they reluctantly stay put.