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  • FIRST POST
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 6th Jan 20, 11:10 PM
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    GreatApe
    Tesla News & Discussion
    • #1
    • 6th Jan 20, 11:10 PM
    Tesla News & Discussion 6th Jan 20 at 11:10 PM
    For anything related to Tesla and adjacent technologies
Page 1
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 6th Jan 20, 11:24 PM
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    GreatApe
    • #2
    • 6th Jan 20, 11:24 PM
    • #2
    • 6th Jan 20, 11:24 PM
    The borning company is very interesting

    A few key electric car only tunnels in the world's busy cities would create a strong reason to buy a Tesla or comparable BEV

    I think as little as 50 miles of BEV tunnels in London could make for many people a BEV the only wise choice
    Plus BEV taxis could also use these to cut taxi trip times massively and also taxi costs because some trips would go from 25 mile to just 10 mile in a straight line

    An interesting way to generate demand for BEVs. The very same BEVs can be used as high occupancy taxis/buses in these tunnels increasing passenger count and decreasing costs.


    I wonder if something like HS2 could be done underground with autonomous model 3s traveling at perhaps 100mph not as high as the max speed of a train but since it's just 4-6 passangers a particular car wouldn't need to stop at any other station than the starting and stopping station. London to Birmingham would be just 1h and more or less no waiting times as each car sets off when it has 5 passangers rather than a set timetable it would flow with demand. The cars can charge at supercharges on either side for 10mins staying in a sweet spot of around 20-80% charge capacity. A single super charger can charge 144 cars a day and be in use 24/7.

    A single model 3 could potentially clock up 19 trips per day carrying 95 passengers and doing 700,000 miles in a single year. The cost of the Tesla and electricity would only be about 10 each way split between 5 passengers it's just 2 each. The tunnel would of course be freking expensive but HS2 is Gona cost 50-100B...
    Last edited by GreatApe; 06-01-2020 at 11:49 PM.
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 14th Jan 20, 3:20 AM
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    GreatApe
    • #3
    • 14th Jan 20, 3:20 AM
    • #3
    • 14th Jan 20, 3:20 AM
    Very close to $100 billion market cap today
    Not convinced the value of Tesla at this point in time is anything close to that figure

    But it's a growth company...
    Growth in sales of physical goods isn't quite like technology where margins are very high or even 100% in the case of most software


    German carmaker BMW on Tuesday said it achieved record sales of 2.49 million BMW, Mini and Rolls-Royce vehicles last year. “BMW Group achieved record sales in 2018. 2.49 million vehicles mean the BMW Group is the world's leading premium automotive company for the 15th year running
    Tesla might get to about half that scale and size by 2023/4 if everything goes right
    • michaels
    • By michaels 14th Jan 20, 8:58 AM
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    michaels
    • #4
    • 14th Jan 20, 8:58 AM
    • #4
    • 14th Jan 20, 8:58 AM
    Very close to $100 billion market cap today
    Not convinced the value of Tesla at this point in time is anything close to that figure

    But it's a growth company...
    Growth in sales of physical goods isn't quite like technology where margins are very high or even 100% in the case of most software




    Tesla might get to about half that scale and size by 2023/4 if everything goes right
    Originally posted by GreatApe
    I guess if they were the only robo taxi supplier in town for a few years then that would be pretty valuable.
    Cool heads and compromise
    • michaels
    • By michaels 14th Jan 20, 9:11 AM
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    michaels
    • #5
    • 14th Jan 20, 9:11 AM
    • #5
    • 14th Jan 20, 9:11 AM
    The borning company is very interesting

    A few key electric car only tunnels in the world's busy cities would create a strong reason to buy a Tesla or comparable BEV

    I think as little as 50 miles of BEV tunnels in London could make for many people a BEV the only wise choice
    Plus BEV taxis could also use these to cut taxi trip times massively and also taxi costs because some trips would go from 25 mile to just 10 mile in a straight line

    An interesting way to generate demand for BEVs. The very same BEVs can be used as high occupancy taxis/buses in these tunnels increasing passenger count and decreasing costs.


    I wonder if something like HS2 could be done underground with autonomous model 3s traveling at perhaps 100mph not as high as the max speed of a train but since it's just 4-6 passangers a particular car wouldn't need to stop at any other station than the starting and stopping station. London to Birmingham would be just 1h and more or less no waiting times as each car sets off when it has 5 passangers rather than a set timetable it would flow with demand. The cars can charge at supercharges on either side for 10mins staying in a sweet spot of around 20-80% charge capacity. A single super charger can charge 144 cars a day and be in use 24/7.

    A single model 3 could potentially clock up 19 trips per day carrying 95 passengers and doing 700,000 miles in a single year. The cost of the Tesla and electricity would only be about 10 each way split between 5 passengers it's just 2 each. The tunnel would of course be freking expensive but HS2 is Gona cost 50-100B...
    Originally posted by GreatApe
    What sort of capacity could a single tunnel have though compared to heavy rail? With a 'safe driving' 2s gap between vehicles and 4 pax per vehicle that is 7,200 pax per hour - compared to a train carrying 1500 pax at a realistic 12 per hour (hs2 fantasy is 18ph) = 18,000 so you would need pretty much 3 tunnels in each direction to support the same capacity or else larger 12 pax vehicles but in that case they would be less likely to be able to be 'dual use' vehicles taking passengers out of the tunnel and on to final destination.
    Cool heads and compromise
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 14th Jan 20, 12:18 PM
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    GreatApe
    • #6
    • 14th Jan 20, 12:18 PM
    • #6
    • 14th Jan 20, 12:18 PM
    I guess if they were the only robo taxi supplier in town for a few years then that would be pretty valuable.
    Originally posted by michaels

    Yes for sure true self drive software is worth $1 trillion +

    But they don't have self drive software right now nor is it a given they will be the ones that get there first although they do seem to be going at it full speed
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 14th Jan 20, 12:33 PM
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    GreatApe
    • #7
    • 14th Jan 20, 12:33 PM
    • #7
    • 14th Jan 20, 12:33 PM
    What sort of capacity could a single tunnel have though compared to heavy rail? With a 'safe driving' 2s gap between vehicles and 4 pax per vehicle that is 7,200 pax per hour - compared to a train carrying 1500 pax at a realistic 12 per hour (hs2 fantasy is 18ph) = 18,000 so you would need pretty much 3 tunnels in each direction to support the same capacity or else larger 12 pax vehicles but in that case they would be less likely to be able to be 'dual use' vehicles taking passengers out of the tunnel and on to final destination.
    Originally posted by michaels

    Why 2 seconds? That's 62 meters (~15 car lengths) distance between cars at 70mph.
    0.5 seconds seems more reasonable that's about 3 car lengths
    That increases the capacity to a max 28,800 per hour so a single tunnel would be fine
    If you want more just use 6 seat EVs over 3 lines = 43,200 per hour max

    Personally I think it would be a hybrid
    With normal cars with just 1-4 passengers doing door to door
    Plus 'train cars' doing station to station
    The train cars can be perhaps 20 cars long connected together with 6 per car = 120 passengers


    The idea with EV tunnels is they can be significantly smaller than train tunnels
    Perhaps just 2.5 meters in diameter Vs 7.6m for Eurotunnel
    That means you can build ~10 EV tunnels for 1 train tunnel
    Or you can say it will cost about 1/10th as much
    This also makes it more modular so prices and learning curves will be much better
    Last edited by GreatApe; 14-01-2020 at 12:44 PM.
    • pile-o-stone
    • By pile-o-stone 14th Jan 20, 12:55 PM
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    pile-o-stone
    • #8
    • 14th Jan 20, 12:55 PM
    • #8
    • 14th Jan 20, 12:55 PM
    GA's enthusiasm for tunnels to transport cars seems to be contradictory to his earlier opposition to Mega projects"We should cancel all mega projects" I believe the statement was?

    GA has made several posts in opposition to building high speed rail links due to the high costs, yet he thinks nothing of spending billions digging tunnels to transport cars.

    Very odd to see GA being inconsistent in his thinking, normally he's so right-minded and sensible, whether it's domestic nuclear powered central heating or AI generating electricity without the need of power stations, so I'm stumped with it.
    Last edited by pile-o-stone; 14-01-2020 at 12:58 PM.
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    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 14th Jan 20, 1:03 PM
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    GreatApe
    • #9
    • 14th Jan 20, 1:03 PM
    • #9
    • 14th Jan 20, 1:03 PM
    GA's enthusiasm for tunnels to transport cars seems to be contradictory to his earlier opposition to Mega projects"We should cancel all mega projects" I believe the statement was?

    GA has made several posts in opposition to building high speed rail links due to the high costs, yet he thinks nothing of spending billions digging tunnels to transport cars.

    Very odd to see GA being inconsistent in his thinking, normally he's so right-minded and sensible, whether it's domestic nuclear powered central heating or AI generating electricity without the need of power stations, so I'm stumped with it.
    Originally posted by pile-o-stone

    HS2 is silly because the existing motorway network + high speed self drive cars will make HS2 use redundant.

    Urban tunnels would be useful
    Can't see anything obvious in the near future which would change that
    • Hexane
    • By Hexane 14th Jan 20, 1:06 PM
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    Hexane
    GA's enthusiasm for tunnels to transport cars seems to be contradictory to his earlier opposition to Mega projects"We should cancel all mega projects" I believe the statement was?
    Originally posted by pile-o-stone
    ... except interconnectors and the bear AI of course
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    • pile-o-stone
    • By pile-o-stone 14th Jan 20, 2:20 PM
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    pile-o-stone
    ... except interconnectors and the bear AI of course
    Originally posted by Hexane
    Agreed. IIRC from his posts on this board, GA invented interconnectors and the UK & rest of Europe are now implementing his technology and his linkage strategy. It's only a matter of time before bear AI comes to fruition and we will no longer have any problems whatsoever with bears and their lack of AI.
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    • pile-o-stone
    • By pile-o-stone 14th Jan 20, 2:21 PM
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    pile-o-stone
    HS2 is silly because the existing motorway network + high speed self drive cars will make HS2 use redundant.

    Urban tunnels would be useful
    Can't see anything obvious in the near future which would change that
    Originally posted by GreatApe
    No, I'm sure you can't!
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    • Cardew
    • By Cardew 14th Jan 20, 2:31 PM
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    Cardew
    My brother lives in California and his son-in-law bought a new Model S costing over US$100,000. He bought through his firm(which he owns) so presumably got State incentives.


    He 'loves it to bits' and recons it is the fastest accelerating car sold in California including exotica(Ferrari/Porsche etc)



    His one disappointment is the range. Even with strictly enforced speed limits, but heavy use of air conditioning, it is less than 200 miles instead of the quoted 300+


    He visited me a couple of months ago with a hired Hyundai I20 manual and compained that the pick-up(acceleration) was abysmal. He has never owned a 'stick shift' and it transpired that he tried all overtaking of trucks etc in 5th gear.
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 15th Jan 20, 1:14 AM
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    GreatApe
    Why 2 seconds? That's 62 meters (~15 car lengths) distance between cars at 70mph.
    0.5 seconds seems more reasonable that's about 3 car lengths
    That increases the capacity to a max 28,800 per hour so a single tunnel would be fine
    If you want more just use 6 seat EVs over 3 lines = 43,200 per hour max

    Personally I think it would be a hybrid
    With normal cars with just 1-4 passengers doing door to door
    Plus 'train cars' doing station to station
    The train cars can be perhaps 20 cars long connected together with 6 per car = 120 passengers


    The idea with EV tunnels is they can be significantly smaller than train tunnels
    Perhaps just 2.5 meters in diameter Vs 7.6m for Eurotunnel
    That means you can build ~10 EV tunnels for 1 train tunnel
    Or you can say it will cost about 1/10th as much
    This also makes it more modular so prices and learning curves will be much better
    Originally posted by GreatApe


    To add to this

    There is no other realistic way to build within a big urban city like London and the world is moving towards megacities that will be even more dense so will need mass transit. If a city doesn't have a Subway already a subway with BEVs rather than trains makes more sense

    'Stations' could be as simple as a small car park where 4-6 passanger get in and get transported to the next 'station' which might be 5 miles away. At 60mph that would take just 5 minutes.

    You could potentially build an underground motorway system under a city
    The bulk of transport can be done underground with computer driven EVs allowing significantly higher speeds and safety.

    You might even be able to move most cars to be underground leaving the surface to be built at much higher density or for walking/bike/scoot only

    Don't expect anything like this anytime soon it's probably a post 2050 projects and probably for the super sized cities
    • pile-o-stone
    • By pile-o-stone 15th Jan 20, 9:22 AM
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    pile-o-stone
    To add to this

    There is no other realistic way to build within a big urban city like London and the world is moving towards megacities that will be even more dense so will need mass transit. If a city doesn't have a Subway already a subway with BEVs rather than trains makes more sense
    Originally posted by GreatApe
    Are there any 'big urban cities' that are 'moving towards becoming mega cities' that don't already have a subway or other rail-based mass transit?

    Don't expect anything like this anytime soon
    Originally posted by GreatApe
    or indeed, ever.
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    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 15th Jan 20, 12:21 PM
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    GreatApe
    Are there any 'big urban cities' that are 'moving towards becoming mega cities' that don't already have a subway or other rail-based mass transit?
    Originally posted by pile-o-stone
    Yes even London falls into this category with the need to build more subways to keep up with population growth. Crossrail opening next year and crossrail two planned after that. So yes there is a need for more underground transport in all cities that are growing both existing ones and future ones

    I'm suggesting rather than a conventional subway you can have a simpler smaller Subway where the trains are 6 seat BEVs

    There are many advantages to this.
    The first being the tunnel is almost 10x smaller so it should cost 10x less
    In fact it might cost 20x less because building 10 versions of something you get learning experience and get better at it

    Both the tunnel and the vehicle would also be simpler and cheaper
    The tunnel wouldn't need rails or electrification so significantly cheaper and faster to build
    The vehicle would be cheap because something like a model 3 is built in the hundreds of thousands perhaps millions in the future

    A 12 carriage train costs over 30 million and can carry upto 1750 passangers that's over 17k per passenger. A model 3 costs 40k and can carry 4 passangers that's 10k a seat so almost half the price.

    It would also be much more energy efficient
    Right now a train has to run even if it is 5% full
    A BEV tunnel can run just the number of cars it needs

    or indeed, ever.
    This isn't really my idea it's the aim of Musks boring company and its a good idea

    It makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons

    You effectively have one mode of transportation repalce all others

    Self drive BEV taxis

    They take over human taxis
    Then buses
    Then private cars
    At some point such a company will start building tunnels to make their fleet more efficient
    To save time money and capital
    Some 25 mile trips can be reduced to 10 miles in a straight tunnel
    That's 1/3rd the energy use and 10x quicker so the taxi can go get the next fair paying customer

    Lots of advantages
    Airports could be one major route
    A single tunnel from Heathrow branding off to perhaps 20 tunnels in zone 1/2 London

    Toys make the tunnel as simple and basic as possible
    Maybe not even lights as BEVs have their own
    No ventilation needed as you can make the BEVs air tight or near enough

    Faster quicker cheaper
    Why hasn't anyone done this?
    Well until recently battery transport didn't exist
    Let's say the model 3 is the first true long range BEV at an okay price built in large numbers so it's only since 2019

    It undercuts trains and tube carriages being almost half the price per seat
    A model 3 long edition with 10 seats over 5 lines would be cheaper still per seat
    And much less maintenance of a tunnel which is significantly less complex
    Last edited by GreatApe; 15-01-2020 at 12:32 PM.
    • michaels
    • By michaels 15th Jan 20, 1:24 PM
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    michaels
    Yes even London falls into this category with the need to build more subways to keep up with population growth. Crossrail opening next year and crossrail two planned after that. So yes there is a need for more underground transport in all cities that are growing both existing ones and future ones

    I'm suggesting rather than a conventional subway you can have a simpler smaller Subway where the trains are 6 seat BEVs

    There are many advantages to this.
    The first being the tunnel is almost 10x smaller so it should cost 10x less
    In fact it might cost 20x less because building 10 versions of something you get learning experience and get better at it

    Both the tunnel and the vehicle would also be simpler and cheaper
    The tunnel wouldn't need rails or electrification so significantly cheaper and faster to build
    The vehicle would be cheap because something like a model 3 is built in the hundreds of thousands perhaps millions in the future

    A 12 carriage train costs over 30 million and can carry upto 1750 passangers that's over 17k per passenger. A model 3 costs 40k and can carry 4 passangers that's 10k a seat so almost half the price.

    It would also be much more energy efficient
    Right now a train has to run even if it is 5% full
    A BEV tunnel can run just the number of cars it needs



    This isn't really my idea it's the aim of Musks boring company and its a good idea

    It makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons

    You effectively have one mode of transportation repalce all others

    Self drive BEV taxis

    They take over human taxis
    Then buses
    Then private cars
    At some point such a company will start building tunnels to make their fleet more efficient
    To save time money and capital
    Some 25 mile trips can be reduced to 10 miles in a straight tunnel
    That's 1/3rd the energy use and 10x quicker so the taxi can go get the next fair paying customer

    Lots of advantages
    Airports could be one major route
    A single tunnel from Heathrow branding off to perhaps 20 tunnels in zone 1/2 London

    Toys make the tunnel as simple and basic as possible
    Maybe not even lights as BEVs have their own
    No ventilation needed as you can make the BEVs air tight or near enough

    Faster quicker cheaper
    Why hasn't anyone done this?
    Well until recently battery transport didn't exist
    Let's say the model 3 is the first true long range BEV at an okay price built in large numbers so it's only since 2019

    It undercuts trains and tube carriages being almost half the price per seat
    A model 3 long edition with 10 seats over 5 lines would be cheaper still per seat
    And much less maintenance of a tunnel which is significantly less complex
    Originally posted by GreatApe
    I worry that this country is too wed to 'public transport' as being trains and buses and 'egalitarian' so we are still working to build updated Victorian infrastructure rather than looking at what tech will soon allow us to do.

    Taxis are for posh people not the working class and so are not 'public transport' even if actually new technology means individual autonomous vehicles making door to door journeys will become cost, time and environmentally efficient compared to mass transport.
    Cool heads and compromise
    • GreatApe
    • By GreatApe 15th Jan 20, 1:47 PM
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    GreatApe
    I worry that this country is too wed to 'public transport' as being trains and buses and 'egalitarian' so we are still working to build updated Victorian infrastructure rather than looking at what tech will soon allow us to do.

    Taxis are for posh people not the working class and so are not 'public transport' even if actually new technology means individual autonomous vehicles making door to door journeys will become cost, time and environmentally efficient compared to mass transport.
    Originally posted by michaels

    I think it's more to do with control and power
    The trains and buses love isn't for the benefit of the public
    They are for the benefit of unions to justify their own existence
    A robo taxi isn't going to pay union subscriptions nor does it have votes in elections

    Musk's idea of BEV tunnels is brilliant in two ways

    1: Just makes sense: A tunnel 1/10th as big will cost 1/10th as much and all the technology can be in the car keeping costs down as cars are built by the millions. Already a model 3 is half the price of a train carriage per seat. The tunnel itself can be basic no rail no electrification needed and the stations can be simple existing car parks or existing underground structures like shopping centers

    2: A way to create demand for BEVs
    Simple truth is ICE will be cheaper than BEVs for a long time
    And new BEVs can't compete with the existing stock
    So to electrify mileage quicker you need robo EVs which can be cheaper than even using existing second hand cars


    Even HS2 it makes no sense given BEVs work today
    Why not have it as a simple motorway dedicated to high speed EVs?
    100mph EV can do London to Birmingham in 1h and just supercharge both sides

    You don't even need a train timetable
    Each time the car is full of 6 passangers away it goes
    If there are only 10 passangers send two cars rather than a train fit for 1000 people carrying just 1% capacity

    Per seat cost is already half and will fall further
    Energy efficiency will be very high because no need for big expensive bulky stations
    A station would just be a car park where the BEVs pull into and drop off and pick up customers

    And you can allow private owned BEVs with self drive or dedicated line drive to also use this road at a small toll fee.

    There can also be MANY more stations (small car parks) along the way soang more people can benefit from such a line

    Oh and of course the per mile cost would be much less for obvious reasons but also for non obvious reasons
    Trains like steady flat straight lines this adds cost if you have to dig in or fill up
    Cars have much more power per weight and can go up and down hills
    So a HS2 in the form of a simple 4 car wide motorway (2 each direction) can avoid homes and towns more easily and perhaps even integrate into the existing motorway network. Eg build most of it right beside the existing M1 motorway
    Last edited by GreatApe; 15-01-2020 at 1:52 PM.
    • pile-o-stone
    • By pile-o-stone 15th Jan 20, 2:13 PM
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    pile-o-stone
    Comedy Gold.

    Replace a tube train that can carry an average of 240 people with an electric car that can carry 4 or 5 people (though we all know that cars/taxis usually carry just one or two people). Massive traffic jam occurs with hundreds of thousands of electric cars stuck in tunnels

    Re-use the existing tube tunnels but drill more tunnels to link the original tube lines together and to replace the existing lifts and escalators with roadways for the electric cars to get into and out of the tunnels.

    One BEV breaks down in a tunnel and all traffic stops in that tunnel. A terrorist fills his car with explosives and destroys a tunnel (much more explosive can be fitted into a car than a backpack). A car sets on fire, blocks the tunnel and fills it with noxious fumes. Tunnel is filled with motorists running here and there in panic (if they can actually get out of their cars in these tiny tunnels), many are killed due to smoke inhalation or crushed in the stampede.


    So back to reality....

    The Boring company is actually trying to build hyper links between major cities where the tunnel holds a vacuum and a pod travels with zero friction (from airi and the ground as it is probably a maglev type) at super speeds. The pods could be similar to the channel tunnel trains that carry cars, trucks and people.

    A much more sensible proposition than tunnels under a city filled with individual cars driving about.

    I must say though, this easily surpasses your nuclear powered showers, baths and central heating idea in its bonkeryness!

    However, you have achieved your purpose of disrupting the board and filling it with nonsense rather than discussions on renewables. So kudos to you there.
    Last edited by pile-o-stone; 15-01-2020 at 2:16 PM.
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    • michaels
    • By michaels 15th Jan 20, 2:22 PM
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    michaels
    One reason why we need people like Musk is that rather than just looking for the safe incremental gain he is willing to ask the big 'what if we tried this' questions and invest the intellectual input to investigate the real economics - how often would a vehicle break down or catch fire, what mitigations could be put in place? How could we do 'stations/interchanges' for single pods without the entire line having to stop?

    Sure it may not work out but just as it is easy for GA to build a straw man model and for P-O-S to knock it down, it takes tens or hundreds of man days of expert analysis and possibly experimentation to actually determine whether a new approach might work. Edison didn't spend his energy building better and better gas lamps....
    Last edited by michaels; 15-01-2020 at 3:25 PM.
    Cool heads and compromise
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