Electric cars

Gloomendoom wrote: »

I wasn't highlighting any issues, merely pointing out that manufacturers of components like traditional gearboxes are not necessarily going to be "toast" as a result of increasing electrification. ZF, for example, has embraced the changes and diversified into complete EV motor/transmission packages and control systems etc.

Hi

Understood, but the issue raised is that which of the two complete supply chains will fail to exist in it's current form ... drive-train? -or- power-train? as both couldn't exist and maintain the level of profitability to maintain the required level of product & plant investment ... effectively, if the OEM stands back and allows tier1 to take the strain and supply modular solutions then there'll be a massive reduction in fixed overhead recovery at the assembly plants which will lead to consolidation/downsizing of assembly sites to maintain margin, else parts of the supply chain will be subjected to mergers and/or acquisitions to both widen the technology base and achieve scale related economies ...

HTH
Z

Gloomendoom wrote: »

You mean like ZF?

Intelligent electric drive solutions

There will of course always be those that can adapt and survive, i pointed out the spark plug company as an example. Looks like ZF are attempting the same. That solution may get taken up or it may not, the chinese see this as a massive area where the playing field is level and they are not playing up up to ROTW expertese in ICE.

Lke dinos, few will become birds and survive (OK I realise thats not an exact analogy).

Gloomendoom wrote: »

I wasn't highlighting any issues, merely pointing out that manufacturers of components like traditional gearboxes are not necessarily going to be "toast" as a result of increasing electrification. ZF, for example, has embraced the changes and diversified into complete EV motor/transmission packages and control systems etc.

I think you may be missing the point, even if ZF and others stick with gearbox production, then their business will still reduce massively.

They will go from producing a large and expensive piece of kit, such as a multi gear + reverse manual/automatic gearbox, and replace that with just a very simple gear reduction unit (not really a gear box as it only has one fixed gear).

Although it's been many decades I can still recall building R/C cars, no gearbox, just a small gear on the motor shaft and a large gear on the prop-shaft to give a gear reduction from the high speed motor and a torque increase, that's all it was. However the limited slip differential was a monster with so many fiddly parts.

So there is simply no comparison between an 'old' gearbox and a 'new' gear reduction, and the loss of gearbox work will be massive.

[Edit - Perhaps this is a better explanation. Let's say the production of a single fixed gear reduction is 90% (or perhaps 99%) simpler than building a gearbox, then the industry will contract by 90% to 99%. M.]

Gloomendoom wrote: »

Or, like their suppliers, the OEMs could just adapt and, for example, switch from manufacturing IC engines in-house to manufacturing battery packs.

Yes they could, but you are confusing the issue. What you are suggesting is the survival of a company by changing what it does. That's not the same as an industry surviving. For example, let's say Cummins Diesel switches to building battery packs, Cummins may survive, but diesel engine manufacturing hasn't.

Martyn1981 wrote: »

I think you may be missing the point, even if ZF and others stick with gearbox production, then their business will still reduce massively.

They will go from producing a large and expensive piece of kit, such as a multi gear + reverse manual/automatic gearbox, and replace that with just a very simple gear reduction unit (not really a gear box as it only has one fixed gear).

On the contrary, I think you may be missing my point. To ensure that their business does not reduce massively, ZF are not sticking with gearbox production. They have diversified away from solely producing gearboxes and final drives to also producing integrated electric drive systems.

A quick glance at the picture I posted or better, a perusal of their website using the link I also posted should convince you that these integrated systems are equally as large and expensive as any conventional gearbox.

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Yes they could, but you are confusing the issue. What you are suggesting is the survival of a company by changing what it does. That's not the same as an industry surviving. For example, let's say Cummins Diesel switches to building battery packs, Cummins may survive, but diesel engine manufacturing hasn't.

Again, I think you are missing my point... they aren't changing what they do. The company is in business to produce vehicles, that is what they will continue to do.

The majority of the parts that they use are bought in from outside suppliers, however, some may be made in-house. Jaguar Land Rover, for example has an IC engine production plant. As the demand for IC engines decreases and the demand for batteries increases, the plant could switch from producing IC engines, a key component in current powertrains, to producing battery packs, a key component of EV powertrains. Meanwhile, their core business remains unchanged.