House prices....

saverbuyer wrote: »

If I were you I would go and challenge the valuation at the first opportunity. RV is based on what a house would sell for in the open market on the 1st January 2005. If you have recently built a new house and its coming in at RV 420K now this would suggest a value of 800K in 2005. Now I haven’t seen your house but the RV figure set your rates bill and is of no benefit to you being high.

Oh your points about site and build costs – It really doesn’t matter what it cost you to build. This will not determine the value NOW. As they say with shares “the value of you holding can go up or down”.

I would also say that pretty much anyone who bought or in your case built in the last 10 years will probably never get the build and site cost back if they try to sell.

The bit about the banks value is IMO tosh. But you’re allowed your own opinion.

Seriously someone has added a zero as a typo on that RV. Get it sorted or you’ll end up paying.

Do you really think, without seeing the house or knowing anything about it, that the RV should be £42,000??

I think you're way wrong that a 400K valuation back in '05 meant a real world value of £800K at that time. They may have been out slightly, but not that much.

As i said originally, i got the information from estate agent friends that banks were scuppering a lot of deals by putting ultra low valuations on houses. A lot of people on here are saying that an approximate house value is 'around' the RV of the house. The RV set on my house is £420K. The bank valuation on the house was £300K. Therefore what the estate agents were saying has been borne out.

As i said, it doesnt matter to us whats it value is, we'll never sell it anyway - but merely demonstrating how far out bank valuations are relative to general thinking.

pgilc1 wrote: »

Do you really think, without seeing the house or knowing anything about it, that the RV should be £42,000??

I think you're way wrong that a 400K valuation back in '05 meant a real world value of £800K at that time. They may have been out slightly, but not that much.

As i said originally, i got the information from estate agent friends that banks were scuppering a lot of deals by putting ultra low valuations on houses. A lot of people on here are saying that an approximate house value is 'around' the RV of the house. The RV set on my house is £420K. The bank valuation on the house was £300K. Therefore what the estate agents were saying has been borne out.

As i said, it doesnt matter to us whats it value is, we'll never sell it anyway - but merely demonstrating how far out bank valuations are relative to general thinking.

No I think you fail to see what I’m saying. In 2005 real world and RV are one and the same. RV was an exercise in setting a value for EVERY house in NI. It was basically saying that if house X sold on 1st January 2005 the likely value would be RV.

You and anyone else who builds a house now gets an RV. This RV is what the house would be valued for in 2005 just like all the houses around you and every other house on the register. So you have an RV of 420K now, this would suggest that at peak the same house would sell for 800k. Does this seem realistic?

Now I’ve read through your many posts on your house. It sounds like a typical own build country house with a few extras. I’ve never seen it your right. What I have seen is many many houses with an RV of 420k.

I’m suggesting you go back to land and property requesting a revaluation.

I’ll say again. House prices have dropped 50% at least since 2007. Site prices have dropped 50% at least and labour costs have fallen.

A house build or bought at peak will not be worth as much now on the open market.

Estate agents say things. I never listen. They serve themselves. Its 2011 now, your estate agent friends would do well to remember this.

General thinking has nothing to do with it. I generally think a £5.00 note should be worth £50.00. I can think what I like. It’ll still be a £5.00.

pgilc1 wrote: »

You seem to have confused yourself - you actually said that a house with an RV of 420K in 2005 would have been worth 800K in 2005.

I would have thought that the very craziest of high prices in early 2007 it would not be unreasonably to assume a house with an RV of 420K would have had a notional value of £700-800K.



Given the house was built last year, ie, three years AFTER the peak, i am not sure why you are talking about labour / site costs at the peak as if that is relevant to my house?

Between last year and this year you can knock approx 17% off. That's how much they have dropped.

Also bear in mind that someone purchasing a 420k house would need to be earning 130K.

Did you buy the site closer to peak? Did you finish it a year ago? When did you start the foundations?

Now I’m not going to get bogged down on what you or anyone else thinks your house is worth. It maybe 4000 square foot and the RV may be 1 million but it will only be “worth” something when you put it on the market and try to sell it.

The market does not care what it cost you to build and the site was only worth what YOU paid at the time. This means nothing.

A better idea of value is a bank’s valuation. This tell you that in a distressed sale the bank can expect to get x back. But look at some of the repos around the banks are probably shouldering losses here.

I'm telling you to challange the valuation unless you are happy paying 3K of rates a year?

A.L.D.A wrote: »

In a market you need three things, someone willing to buy, having the money to buy and someone willing to sell. Without any of those there is in effect no market.

If I see no point in selling a house as I believe that it is worth more than anyone is willing to pay then that may well be my deluded state, but if enough people are of that opinion then we fast get to a situation where we have few sales.

At the minute what I find deeply worrying is that many are not building. Why should anyone build if they see just risk? In the mean time our population is continuing to increase. There is only one way this can end.

If there is a shortage just how much would any of us be willing to pay either to purchase or rent to put a roof over the heads of our families? Right now we are sowing tomorrow's problems.

Sorry but you've come out with this in the past and I can't for the life oh me see what you're getting at.

Who says our population is growing?

Is the number of jobs growing? Has NI moved out of recession? What has been happening to average house sizes? How do they compare to say the 1900? Just because we think we deserve a nice 4 bed house for 2 people does not mean we'll get it. We have an agind population perhaps the system should force them to sell up and downsize.

We have 60K vacant houses which are rates exempt perhaps we should get those habitable.

Same for the 5K ghost estates.

Or the 15K getting their mortgage interest paid for.

What we do not have is a housing shortage. Where are all these homeless people?

If a developer cannot afford to build and sell after the boom they will fall away. This is capitalism. But someone who can will take their place.

Seriously this we need to build more nonsense is tiring. Let the market fall to the proper level and it can decide what we need to do.

Do you see lots of homeless people in your profession? People walking about empty building sites looking to buy?

Saverbuyer

I think the Office of National Statistics believes the population is rising. http://www.nisra.gov.uk/archive/demography/publications/Pop_Trends_NI_Article.pdf
Have you any proof that it is falling for I would be interested.

Fortunately we do not live in the type of state that throws the elderly out of the houses they own. So please let us not go down that road.

Most believe we have a housing shortage. I would tend to heed the various housing associations, charities, housing branch etc. I think we do have a housing shortage. Here is a link from the Telegraph. http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/community-telegraph/east-belfast/news/housing-shortage-is-at-lsquocrisis-pointrsquo-14917685.html It is a year old, but be assured that nothing has improved since last year.

House completions peaked in NI in 2006 and have fallen ever since. That is 4 years plus ago.

I see rents going up on good housing stock, I think that is a bad sign, but you do not believe that either. Time will tell.

I am not an advocate for expensive housing, quite the opposite. Because I believe housing needs to be affordable all I am saying is that there is a major problem looming.

Time will tell who has the right of it.