Next recession, trade wars, up to 50% portfolio losses
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Gold and Silver for me.
I am also looking at some alternative investments, such as green power producers, but I am not sure what is the best way to get them into my SIPP.
I think the next 12-months will give a much better picture of how equities will perform in the medium terms. Overall the stock markets look overheated and that is without Trump, Brexit, Syria etc.0 -
Was it Bogle who said it that in these times that it's not
"Don't stand there, do something!"
its
"Don't do something, stand there!"
The FTSE 100 recently reached record highs. The previous high was in late 1999.
One of the reason so many people have such crappy pensions is because the market goes in cycles but without actually making any meaningful long terms gains.
Now, I appreciate that foreign markets have performed much better in the long term, but given that UK investments have historically been very UK-centric (and I assume most people's holding are the same), doesn't that prove that timing is everything?0 -
The FTSE 100 recently reached record highs. The previous high was in late 1999.
One of the reason so many people have such crappy pensions is because the market goes in cycles but without actually making any meaningful long terms gains.
Now, I appreciate that foreign markets have performed much better in the long term, but given that UK investments have historically been very UK-centric (and I assume most people's holding are the same), doesn't that prove that timing is everything?
So does dividend re-investment just not exist then? it's the coupling of compounded dividends and growth that really helps.
Sure if your extremely lucky you'll 'time' the market to some benefit however with more up periods than down then the chance is greater you'll lose out by being out of the market.
Most people have crap pensions becuase they don't pay in nearly enough and early enough to make a real difference long term and often their expectations are too high. How many people in their 30's or even 40's take an interest in their pension never mind the odd person in their 20's who takes an interest early enough that it might have a major impact. There is also the problem of people spending longer in retirement and in better health before then being alive longer thanks to modern medicine which can also increase their living costs due to care, illness or disability costs.0 -
The FTSE 100 recently reached record highs. The previous high was in late 1999.
One of the reason so many people have such crappy pensions is because the market goes in cycles but without actually making any meaningful long terms gains.
Now, I appreciate that foreign markets have performed much better in the long term, but given that UK investments have historically been very UK-centric (and I assume most people's holding are the same), doesn't that prove that timing is everything?
If you are tunnel visioned into only investing in the FTSE, you probably don't deserve good rewards.0 -
So does dividend re-investment just not exist then? it's the coupling of compounded dividends and growth that really helps.
It does, but if you invested during any of the downward moves you'd do well to break even.
I think we have been lucky in that the FTSE has gone steadily upwards since 2010, however when I look back further the cycles scare me!0 -
If you are tunnel visioned into only investing in the FTSE, you probably don't deserve good rewards.
My investments are very diverse, in fact I have deliberately moved away from the UK as I think we will do a lot worse than pretty much everywhere else over the next few years.
However, historically pensions have been invested heavily in UK funds and equities, whereas a lot of the perceived wisdom comes form the US where the S&P has had a strong upwards trajectory since 2000.0 -
It does, but if you invested during any of the downward moves you'd do well to break even.
I think we have been lucky in that the FTSE has gone steadily upwards since 2010, however when I look back further the cycles scare me!
You'd basically needed to have invested on the way down and then panicked or have been forced to sell to have lost out, obviously you know the reason that investing is a long term game is to even out the boom and bust. I don't disagree that there is maybe more timing involved for the active investor and I would imagine quite a few people do make some active decisions regarding timing. (Edit:- Doubtless someone will be along shortly with some statistics to make me look like a muppet)
I personally certainly keep an eye on current affairs and make some trades aka punts on individual stocks depending on whats happening, I recently jumped on Microfocus which has been rather profitable. My punts obviously have a habit of going tits up every so often but it's small beer and risk in comparison to trying to time large chunks e.g. pensions.0 -
You're either a long term buy and hold equity investor, or you're not. If you're not in it for the long term then you arguably shouldn't be invested in equity markets anyway, unless simply gambling on a favourable outcome in the short term. If you're just fearful of the downside then that's an exposure issue.
Everyone knows a crash is going to happen, noone knows when a crash is going to happen, some guess right, some keep guessing until they're right. I understand the temptation to try and dodge a bullet, to get out of the way, wait and then try to steal a march on everyone else. It all sounds so simple but the chances of success are quite slim.
In reality getting out of the market in the short term is just as likely to damage returns as it is to prevent losses, longer term it's unlikely to matter. I know from experience that I'm a heck of a lot more comfortable being in the equity market, toppy or not, than out of it and that when the next crash happens it will at least provide a few, perhaps brief and limited, rebalance and reduced cost opportunities, before starting a recovery, which could well be rapid.
Wiser to focus energy on portfolio diversification, global coverage, suitability and risk tolerance rather than plotting a perfect market timing path.
I just don't see the point in trying to second guess equity markets and an inevitable crash when the potential for a disasterous timing decision in either direction is so pronounced.
Good luck to those that do, they'll need it.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0 -
I am also looking at some alternative investments, such as green power producers, but I am not sure what is the best way to get them into my SIPP
Several easy ways. There are a couple of Investment Trusts that I hold (Greencare and The Renewable Infrastructure Group) with dividend yields of around 5 per cent and low volatility. And there are any number of ETFs: a big one, from iShares, has very reasonable fees.
I am not sure that there are any better options.0 -
Voyager2002 wrote: »Several easy ways. There are a couple of Investment Trusts that I hold (Greencare and The Renewable Infrastructure Group) with dividend yields of around 5 per cent and low volatility. And there are any number of ETFs: a big one, from iShares, has very reasonable fees.
I am not sure that there are any better options.
Thanks, I will definitely have a look at those.0
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