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Next recession, trade wars, up to 50% portfolio losses
Comments
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This didn't age well did it?
If we didn't all have faith in the stock market growing none of us would be on this forum.
Of course it will grow over the long term. We know that for a fact. We just hope it doesn't cost us in the short to mid term.
I hope everyone's investments do well. This is not a Zero Sum Game. If the world's economy keeps growing (which it will, in the long term at least) it will lift all ships and we will all be winners.0 -
They weren't referring to VLS funds per se. They were referring to equities generally.
Meaningless. Returns depend on the investment mix.A 30% loss would be "generational"? The Dot.com happened around 2000. The Credit Crunch happened in 2008. We are due another right about now. These aren't generational, unless by that you mean every 10 years.
Read it again. Dunstonh said that 30% losses on VLS60 would be a generational size loss, and compared it to the lower losses seen in both the dot.com bubble and with the credit crunch.
Feel free to abandon your investments based on a not wholly understood article from Vanguard (I read the same one, and you have misintepreted it); a lack of understanding about how the market works; and what some bloke on Twitter said. I'll pass, however.0 -
They weren't referring to VLS funds per se. They were referring to equities generally.
So, you had a fund that was only invested 60% in equities. So, a 30% loss wouldn't see your fund lose 30%.A 30% loss would be "generational"? The Dot.com happened around 2000. The Credit Crunch happened in 2008. We are due another right about now. These aren't generational, unless by that you mean every 10 years.
I was referring to a 30% loss potential on your particular investment. That is what matters after all. Not some hypothetical spread that you dont have.I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The comments I make are just my opinion and are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice and you should not treat them as such. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.0 -
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How does that conflict with my post today? Long term vs short term.
You're messing with us, aren't you?
If not, and you can't see the incompatibility of your two posts, then I'd advise you to seek some professional independent financial advice.
Oh, hold on a minute. Let me quickly set up a [STRIKE]Speak Your Idiotic Brains[/STRIKE] Twitter account and advise you to invest in my nice new shiny pyramid scheme! I guarantee that it will make you a millionaire, and because I said it on Twitter it must be true! (N.B. Just to be clear, I'm not actually advertising or running a pyramid scheme).0 -
They weren't referring to VLS funds per se. They were referring to equities generally.
A 30% loss would be "generational"?
Yes. 30% across the board.
The Dot.com happened around 2000.
Dot com was dot com. Not non dot com.
The Credit Crunch happened in 2008. We are due another right about now. These aren't generational, unless by that you mean every 10 years.
It doesn't work that way.0 -
How does that conflict with my post today? Long term vs short term.
Because you dont get long term returns (except poor ones) by dipping in and out of the market short term . Thats a lesson most people take some time to learn. It did me.
BTW, "hundreds of millions" isn't even a rounding error in terms of worldwide capitalization. If it was significant markets woudl already be falling.0 -
So, you had a fund that was only invested 60% in equities. So, a 30% loss wouldn't see your fund lose 30%.
I was referring to a 30% loss potential on your particular investment. That is what matters after all. Not some hypothetical spread that you dont have.
When a crash happens, it affects bonds too. General misery pervades. And we live in an age where many people are moving away from bonds anyway in favour of cash.0 -
When a crash happens, it affects bonds too. General misery pervades. And we live in an age where many people are moving away from bonds anyway in favour of cash.
Um, you do know that bonds and equities markets are separate, don't you? You do also know that the forces that move those separate markets mean that bonds don't necessarily follow equities? And you do know that you were originally talking about equities?
"General misery pervades." What exactly does it pervade? During the last market crash I was actually quite chipper.
Oh, and one more, are you really trying to educate an experienced IFA on bond and equities markets? Hubris, thy name is....0
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