How can house price's fall so much??

dopester

magicdogsbrain wrote: »

Having lots of people who want buy but wont because its a falling market - will stimulate rents to move higher.


So you, as jazzyjustlaw's landlord, can put the rent up by 50%.

Dream on dreamer.

neverdespairgirl

PasturesNew wrote: »

She already did ... I bet you £1 she's on the DFW Board before the year's out....!

I doubt it! :rotfl:

fc123

magicdogsbrain wrote: »

The market will start to grow again so that we are back to today’s prices (including inflation) in about 5 or 6 years.


I agree that a proportion of households have to sell for certain reasons, and take a big

How much do you think the market will drop by and when (if at all) do you think it will recover?

But if inflation is included, the price is not the same as todays...though 'the ticket price' may be the same, the value is different (lower).

tradetime

My thoughts on this subject are that prices will drop over the next 2 year or so by about 20% (may vary quite widely by location).

That bit is not necessarily unreasonable, though I'd expect a little more myself.

The market will start to grow again so that we are back to today’s prices (including inflation) in about 5 or 6 years.

That I think would be a little over optimistic.

I agree that a proportion of households have to sell for certain reasons, and take a big hit by doing so. Others will not incur such a big loss because they have already built up a lot of equity. Many sellers will be trading up – so any loss in selling will be more than made up in buying.

I'd also agree with that, in theory, but I'd have to know just what proportion of homes are overleveraged.

I do believe that the vast majority of people will not sell in this volatile environment. Even the folks moving up will probably hang on.

Agree with that too, it will take a little time until the big headlines pass, many will play wait and see if they can. However Nothing will really get moving again until the FTB can afford to buy, he has to take the house off the guy on the first rung, without him there is no impetous.

How much do you think the market will drop by and when (if at all) do you think it will recover?

I'm guessing about 30% on average, I think there will likely be 3 or 4 years of declines yoy, but I'd expect it to be 10 years or so before a particular property is worth what was at the height. London may recover a little quicker. But it's all a guessing game.

PasturesNew

fc123 wrote: »

But if inflation is included, the price is not the same as todays...though 'the ticket price' may be the same, the value is different (lower).

Not so good from an STR point of view as I want the ticket to say smaller numbers. However, my STR pot is growing MoM, YoY.

I'd like to see the ticket price drop by 25% over 5 years to realise my Plan A.

PasturesNew

If we do not have wage inflation, I don't see how inflation comes into the equation really. Without any wage inflation it must surely only go on price tag.

fc123

PasturesNew wrote: »

If we do not have wage inflation, I don't see how inflation comes into the equation really. Without any wage inflation it must surely only go on price tag.

Some lucky people will get pay rises due to the nature of their work, others won't.....then they do the average.....winners and losers.
I'm really trying to get the hang of being 'A Winnnerrr'.....I haven't started on those dodgy books and tapes yet, just taken tips off here on Glass half full mindset.
I am going to get a little pay hike though....I got my deal with Big Internet Site;) .

PasturesNew

fc123 wrote: »

Some lucky people will get pay rises due to the nature of their work, others won't.....then they do the average.....winners and losers.
I'm really trying to get the hang of being 'A Winnnerrr'.....I haven't started on those dodgy books and tapes yet, just taken tips off here on Glass half full mindset.
I am going to get a little pay hike though....I got my deal with Big Internet Site;) .

I've had a 33% payrise this month
Every morning I start with £0 earnings and what comes in comes in ... and during June things have broken records. It'd started to flatten out in the last three months... so I've been surprised that earnings have gone up so much. In fact, they've increased this month more than 10% over my previous best month.

Best stay a bit quiet though... they could start at £0 tomorrow and stay like that forever more!

I really should do something more with my time than just watch the bank accounts.

I am sure you'll have great success with your site/range.

As for actual job earnings, I've not seen any rises in anything I do for years. If I were to get a job it'd be at less than I've earnt 10 years ago in lesser jobs I expect. Which is why I am not motivated to do it.

dean_ham

Hairy wrote: »

So you would sell your house for half price???? lets revisit this thread in a year. See who the real dreamers are.

If i bought a 3 bed house for £300k and it dropped in price to £150k. I would sell it if i could buy a 5 bed house for £250k (where this would have cost £500k the same time i bought the 3 bed house)

Thats one of many examples why people would sell their house for "half price"

woodbutcher_2

I've read right through this thread and nowhere have i seen anyone say it's all our own fault.All i have heard for the last five years at every social gathering was how much everyone's house was worth and how wonderful it all was.Every second documentary on telly seemed to feature some spotty 20 year old who had bought several houses off plan,never stepped into one and was now a property tycoon.Every man and his dog was suddenly a property developer despite having no clue which end of a hammer to hold.

Sure,there will be people who made a lot of money from the housing boom but there are a damn sight more who are now paying for all that speculation.

Puts me in mind of all that guff in the 80's when Thatcher sold all the family silver and people where chuffed to bits that they had £200 quids worth of British Gas shares.Where's Sid now? He's called Ivan and he is charging us a fortune for gas and electric.

Never ceases to amaze me how the bottom line in this country is "how much is it worth" while the rest of Europe just plod on renting affordable property and laughing at us.Glad i aint got no mortgage and couldn't care less what my house is worth,because it is "home" and you can't put a price on that.