How can house price's fall so much??

dopester

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

I expect a lot of variation, some areas will fall less, some more. The picture for specific types of property in particular areas is impossible to know, as there are many factors, some of them random.

There may actually be "hidden order" in randomness and "chaos" but we struggle to see it with our fuzzy, slow, animal minds. The narrowing realm of random is being seen with supercomputers of today and tomorrow in to the interconnectedness of what appear to be random events, bringing nonlinear relationships in to clearer focus.

I've not got access to that, but my anti-random mind tells me not to buy some big house that is remote and isolated in the countryside and needs oil-fuel to heat.

dannyboycey

dopester wrote: »

There may actually be "hidden order" in randomness and "chaos" but we struggle to see it with our fuzzy, slow, animal minds. The narrowing realm of random is being seen with supercomputers of today and tomorrow in to the interconnectedness of what appear to be random events, bringing nonlinear relationships in to clearer focus.

I've not got access to that, but my anti-random mind tells me not to buy some big house that is remote and isolated in the countryside and needs oil-fuel to heat.

One minute, this forum is full of petty name calling, the next, we're discussing chaos theory. Fantastic! That's why I come here

Sir_Humphrey

dopester wrote: »

There may actually be "hidden order" in randomness and "chaos" but we struggle to see it with our fuzzy, slow, animal minds. The narrowing realm of random is being seen with supercomputers of today and tomorrow in to the interconnectedness of what appear to be random events, bringing nonlinear relationships in to clearer focus.

I've not got access to that, but my anti-random mind tells me not to buy some big house that is remote and isolated in the countryside and needs oil-fuel to heat.

Have a thanks.

I am just saying there may be a random element to it, as well as explicable ones. To say much more is to delve into philosophy, and to not only talk about deterministic chaos, but also whether human activity has non-deterministic free will. The discussion would be long and rambling and conclude that "we have no way of knowing".

With all these questions too, there is the technical question of whether probabilities say something about the actual universe, or our own expectations.

m00m00

you are heading very much into the direction of Kant here, I'd advise caution

Sir_Humphrey

m00m00 wrote: »

you are heading very much into the direction of Kant here, I'd advise caution

In economics, I think it is better to concentrate on the macro level, and work down. Then, like the later Wittgenstein, you can stop worrying about the metaphysics, (Wittgenstein was described as "God" by Keynes).

The alternative is to work from the micro level upwards, and be wrong (free market economists) or plain bonkers (certain Austrian "economists" who are popular on HPC).

dopester

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

or plain bonkers (certain Austrian "economists" who are popular on HPC).

Austrian School concepts make perfect sense to me.

Sir_Humphrey

dopester wrote: »

Austrian School concepts make perfect sense to me.

Unfortunately, I can't view videos at work. I hope you have not posted that cretinous "money as debt" video. :money:

Any theory that makes a virtue of operating without evidence is usually a crank theory. A theory that operates against the evidence is crackers. Which means that Mises is a crackers crank.

You cannot create a useful theory a priori from a set of logical axioms without evidence. That is what David Icke or Mohammed al Fayed do. It is a complete non-starter, and completely contrary to modern science and epistemology.

neverdespairgirl

m00m00 wrote: »

you are heading very much into the direction of Kant here, I'd advise caution

There is something I'm very grateful for. I did my LLB at UCL, and they made us all study a full unit in jurisprudence. It gave me a great introduction to all sorts of writers, incl. Kant.

LilacPixie

I personally don't think we will see across the board drops of 50% but certain proporties in certain areas...quite possible. Thinking new build rabbit hutches,sorry 'executive apartments' in bigger cities.

For a personal point of view I think a 50% drop from peak is a good thing. We bought a 2 bed flat in 2003 before prices went crazy for 28k. In 2006 we remortgaged for 31k and reduced our term to 15 years. The 'crash' hasn't really hit here and a flat in the next block recently went on the market for o/o 67k in need of upgrading, ie it had no heating only singleglazing and a kitchen/bathroom that hadn't been touched in 40 years. That flat wenttoclosing datewithin days and has sold.

Iam not stupid, I don't think that Scotland is immune to a pricedrop but if peak for this propertyis 70k and it drops 50% it means I will sell for 35k and have alittle profit it also means the 3-4 bed detatched I like the look of will no longer be o/o 169k but closer the 85k mark which will obviously make them a whole lot more affordable to me and my family. Also a 10-20% deposit on a 85k house will be easier to save than 10-20% deposit on a 170k house.

Not to mention that same 170k o/opriced house was bought for 80k 4 years ago anyway

mircea

PasturesNew wrote: »

At the end of the day, those dreamers waiting for a 50% drop will buy a house that has dropped 50%.

Those dreamers who haven't dropped will be waiting the longest in the end.

Cash is king. And we have the cash that the sellers want.
We win.

It's just a house. We'll find another one, a better one. Yours is not special to us. Only to you.

Bless - you have the cash! lol. That doesn't make you more intelligent, funny, smart, happy or in any other way more fulfilled in your personal life. Just look at yourself, spending your life on an internet forum board. Get a life, you sad ...