when will people start buying again?

skap7309

LisbonLaura wrote: »

Come back in three years & say that one again.

Like so many, it seems you have no conception of the size of the approaching financial storm.

Thankyou. People can very easily accept 300% increases without batting an eyelid but a 20% fall (sorry....it is likely to be more) is absurd and shockingly preposterous.

skap7309

RHemmings wrote: »

Do you really believe that predictions of a bottom in 2-3 years are accurate? I believe that this prediction of an early bottom and recovery is just sop for home-owners, trying to make them feel that even if there is some "pain", it will be over soon. I don't thinmk it will be.

Notice i put the word 'if', but yes i agree with you that it could be longer.

SingleSue

When prices become more affordable and when there is more confidence from FTB to make their move.

When that will be is anyones guess.

dhassen

Me and my gf are potential FTBs and where originally planning to try to buy this summer. We saw the prices falling as a good thing at first, but there's no way we're going to buy now, what with the rates of mortages having gone up so much. The house we like has only dropped by 5K, but a 95% mortgage we would be looking at cost around 750 pcm about 6 months ago, and now costs 900pcm now. we'd have to save for ages to double our deposit, and the pcm on a 90% deal is around 780!!

We won't be buying till rates drop back down.
EDIT: unless they never come back down, in which case we'll have to grin and bear it!!!

Also, I do thing houses are priced rediculously at the moment. How is a 3 bed terrace in north manchester (although a good area) worth 186K (in one or 2 cases).. madness

morg_monster

Ditto Dhassen's first paragraph.

We might buy in the next 1-2 years depending on interest rates and how far prices have fallen. Yes i know it is risky if prices haven't bottomed out yet, which they may not have. We want a home to live in when we get married. We should have enough of a deposit to cover the more likely drops; we will be happy to accept that we might not make money on our first property. If we can find somewhere which is affordable now and will be in the future if rates rise, and we feel we have got a really good deal on a place we are happy to stay in for a good few years, then we will buy. We are happy not considering every last terrible possibility that may befall us; just the more likely ones.

Don't bother telling me off and giving me more predictions, I'm on these boards all the time and have seen it all before! I know all the facts and the predictions, but it is going to get increasingly more difficult for me to use those against our huge wish to have a place of our own before we start a family. I know there are other FTBs out there like us, with deposits saved; ready and waiting. I think we'll start tentatively appearing once the big monthly drops slow down I think; it'll probably take a while to get the guts to take the plunge though.

Austin_Allegro

If you want to make an informed guess, I'd say collect the data of all the previous housing slumps going back to the 1930s (when residential mortgages became popular - any earlier and conditions would be too different to matter) then calculate the average length of downturn in the market.

Alternatively, consider the last slump, in the nineties, which took about five years to bottom out. Bear in mind that the economy and peoples' financial situation is in much, much worse shape than it was then and the property bubble has been inflated far more, and I'd say a slump of 5-7 years would not be out of the question.

As for percentage drops, a poll of 'experts' last night on ITV was predicting 20% drops over the next couple of years. The IMF has said UK property is overvalued by about 30% and even HMG (in the Flint memo) are saying 10%.

Personally I think drops of 30-50% over the next five years are perfectly possible, which would bring property broadly in line with the traditional 3.5x salary multiple.

That all depends on whether salary inflation remains low and banks remain highly cautious with lending, both of which look fairly likely at the moment.

lostinrates

Just wondering. Things happen faster now because of speed of communication and heavier, more rapid media influence.....I wonder if this crash and recover miht not be a bit quicker than previous ones?

bo_drinker

Confused. Our buyer pulled out because he couldn't get the finance when it came down to it. It was when the deals were disappearing big time. He did sell his place though and I guess he went into rented ?? Inflation is on the up so next thing will be interest rates up then more confidence lost. Probably be here this time next year...

confused31_2

bo_drinker wrote: »

Confused. Our buyer pulled out because he couldn't get the finance when it came down to it. It was when the deals were disappearing big time. He did sell his place though and I guess he went into rented ?? Inflation is on the up so next thing will be interest rates up then more confidence lost. Probably be here this time next year...

And there still disapearing and its even worse for FTB,thats why there are no first time buyers and that is why i was asking that question, then you came out with you need to drop your price.

You have proven to me with your own house, you have kept on lowering your price and still no joy, it as been on the market for 8 months.

I dont think it wont pick up until the FTB come back and i think am willing to wait for that time.

why dont you take yours off the market?


confused

bo_drinker

Probably will in a couple of weeks.There are some houses here that have been for sale for 12 months plus?? There is a FTB er in another thread on here asking if it is a buyers market. He has a good deposit and mortgage offer....... a rare sight nowadays.