Is Hometrack right ??

ivegotabig1

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/index.cfm?fuseaction=news.viewnewsitem&newsid=113

Although there are regional variations, they say house prices are down for the 14th month in a row ?? i tend to believe them, but cant really sqaure that with forecasts from The big lenders, i.e Halifax, alliance nationwide etc etc,who say flat prices for the foreseable future, or is it because lenders have a vested interest in talking the markert up ? they hardly want to talk there way into huge repo's / neg equity problem i guess..

ivegotabig1

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/foolseyeview/2005/fev050929c.htm

Also check out this link....worrying, the "fool" are a well respected forum, ofetn quoted on these boards...

Bestthingsinlifearefree

There are lots of different surveys out there saying different things.

Below are the latest official Land Registry figures which show the real prices house sold for:

Average house price Eng and Wales https://www.landregistry.co.uk (ie what prices actually sold for).

Q1 2004 WAS £166,404

Q1 2005 WAS £183,486
Q2 2005 IS £184,924

As you can see average prices went up slightly in Q2 2005 over Q1 2005 but in the main are stable.

If you look at this BBC link you will see Mortgage approvals for purchasing houses has been growing every month in 2005 so more people are getting mortages (ie people are more confident in the market now) and there is more demand and more demand = stable or even rising prices.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4292948.stm


The guy Cliff D'Arcy who wrote the motley fool articles has wrote in earlier articles that he has sold his house as he thought there would be a house price crash. So obviously he is hoping for a HPC because he need one. So he has a vested interest take his articles with a pinch of salt.

Many people have confused a inevitable rapid slow down in house price GROWTH with a house price crash. They are two very different things.

In general it seems the house market is stable / stagnating and a house price crash with current low interest rates + demand + high employment is unlikely.


Yes there are some doom and gloomers out there with negative predictions but they will always be some one saying theres going to be a crash.

The reality is the market is steady and stable and a house price crash is very unlikely.

wibble68_2

Bestthingsinlifearefree wrote:

In general it seems the house market is stable / stagnating and a house price crash with current low interest rates + demand + high employment is unlikely.

The reality is the market is steady and stable and a house price crash is very unlikely.

I think you've hit to nail on the head by saying the word "current"

I agree the market is stable but after only 1 year of stagnating prices we are not far enough in to the cycle to start saying a correction is unlikely.

EdInvestor

ivegotabig1 wrote:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/index.cfm?fuseaction=news.viewnewsitem&newsid=113

Although there are regional variations, they say house prices are down for the 14th month in a row ?? i tend to believe them, but cant really sqaure that with forecasts from The big lenders, i.e Halifax, alliance nationwide etc etc,who say flat prices for the foreseable future....

This is what Hometrack forecasts for the future:

....we are forecasting only 3% inflation over the next year [2006].While there is still little chance of a crash, another housing boom is unlikely for at least the next three years. Over the short term sluggish but stable is the most likely scenario.”

Much the same as everyone else.

meanmachine_2

Hometrack's figures just cover England and Wales. I say "just", but that's still the vast bulk of the population.

If you strip out huge rises in N Ireland, and smaller rises in Scotland, then you arrive at the Hometrack figures.

Basically London has been falling for a good few years now. Not crashing, but certainly falling.

The rest of the country will doubtless follow.