Prices will fall by 50% in four years

Paul_N_4

pickles110564 wrote: »

Back to the thread.
It is negative equity which forces home owners to sell and it is only when the numbers of forced sellers reach significant levels that a market actually crashes. Using data from 80 per cent of lenders, Experian estimate 8,000 people are already in difficulty and more than 23,000 would be in negative equity if prices fell by 10 per cent. A 20 per cent fall would mean 78,394. Given that there are around 14.5 million owner-occupiers in the UK - I do not believe these numbers would bring about the type of market collapse being hyped up in the press. Yes - there will be pain felt in certain sectors, but it is by a relatively small number of people.
50% aint never gonna happen.

Rubbish. Negative equity doesn't force people to sell, its the ability to service the mortgage. i.e. can't afford the mortgage repayments.

Edit: Judging by the links included, I'd say you copy and pasted that trash off another website/forum? Surely not your own thinking?

dopester

Dan: wrote: »

And even if prices were to fall 50% then everyone will be jumping in and buying BTL investments, pushing prices sky high again. I know I will.

With what money? More £25K loans? Loans which the banks definately won't give you if/when house prices fall 50%. Like so many people, you've trapped your money away in over-valued property and are chained to the debt.

tradetime

RICS survey out tonight circa midnight expectations are for a figure of -97.2%

PasturesNew

Paul_N wrote: »

Edit: Judging by the links included, I'd say you copy and pasted that trash off another website/forum? Surely not your own thinking?

Yes, it was copied from !!!!!! Kings .com: http://www.channel4.com/4homes/buyingandselling/phil-kirstie-house-price-predictions.html

Dan:_4

dopester wrote: »

With what money? More £25K loans? Loans which the banks definately won't give you if/when house prices fall 50%. Like so many people, you've trapped your money away in over-valued property and are chained to the debt.

If house prices fell 50% I would raise the money to buy a BTL. I would only need about 50-60K to buy a 1 bed flat in Crawley, Sussex.

PasturesNew

tradetime wrote: »

RICS survey out tonight circa midnight expectations are for a figure of -97.2%

To clarify, is that "97.2% of RICS surveyors surveyed by RICS feel that prices are going down"?

PasturesNew

Dan: wrote: »

If house prices fell 50% I would raise the money to buy a BTL. I would only need about 50-60K to buy a 1 bed flat in Crawley, Sussex.

So you, already with money pouring from every orifice, would snatch an affordable property from the market, thus depriving somebody who wasn't as lucky as you to be so wealthy?

How mean.

Paul_N_4

PasturesNew wrote: »

Yes, it was copied from !!!!!! Kings .com: http://www.channel4.com/4homes/buyingandselling/phil-kirstie-house-price-predictions.html

LOL, pickles taking quotes from krusty and phil.

It just goes to show what complete BS those two 'property experts' talk.

According to Phil (linky) "It is negative equity which forces home owners to sell"

:rotfl:

How can compete numbskulls like this be allowed on TV?

Dan:_4

PasturesNew wrote: »

So you, already with money pouring from every orifice, would snatch an affordable property from the market, thus depriving somebody who wasn't as lucky as you to be so wealthy?

How mean.

No. Because prices are not going to fall 50%

What is mean is people like Brit, Zammo, !!!!!!? etc who wish for people to be repossessed and lose their jobs for their own financial benefit.

brit1234

Paul_N wrote: »

Rubbish. Negative equity doesn't force people to sell, its the ability to service the mortgage. i.e. can't afford the mortgage repayments.

Edit: Judging by the links included, I'd say you copy and pasted that trash off another website/forum? Surely not your own thinking?

Sorry Paul but unfortunately I believe some of what Pickles is saying is the true. Normal house owners won't be at risk but the one group at strong risk is the BUY TO LET BRIGADE.

They have used their equity to purchase further properties, and then recycled the equity in those as well. Its like passing round monopoly money (not real and worthless). If prices fall this equity disappears and then the investor becomes subject to lenders fine print where the conditions of the loan are written. Here lies the Margin Call type conditions which requires the investor to place their own money into the loan or it all goes horribly wrong.

At present more and more buy to let investors are going bust. If prices continue falling then MARGIN CALLSwill become a household phrase like sub prime and credit crunch.:eek: